The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning series begins tonight, and the Leafs should be the favorites.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are the 4th overall team in the NHL this year, but because of the way the NHL organizes their playoffs, the Leafs have to play the back-to-back Stanley Cup Champions.
It’s a bad break, but it might be for the best.
The Leafs did, after all, lose to Montreal last season, in a matchup that was far more favorable to them than this one is unfavorable.
It would obviously be better to play a weaker team, but I think the Leafs will rise to the competition. And, even though Tampa is a great team, I don’t think they are necessarily the favorite in this series.
Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Should be the Favorite
Yes, the NHL’s writers and media overwhelmingly take Tampa, but the Leafs are a slight betting favorite because they have home ice, and they have better numbers across the board.
In fact, if you ignore recent playoffs and go only by the most recent 82 games, the Leafs should be a pretty heavy favorite.
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The only thing Tampa is significantly better at is goaltending, and since the Leafs likely won’t be icing Mrazek, Kallgren or Hutchinson in this series, there isn’t as much difference as the stats say.
Clearly any person in their right mind would still select Andre Vasilevskiy over Jack Campbell, but the beauty of goaltending is that even though one of those guys is an all-time great, in such a small sample size as one playoff series, you might as well flip a coin.
That’s the fun of the game of hockey: the most important player is completely unpredictable.
Tampa’s only other advantage in this series is their experience.
The Leafs Advantages
The Leafs have the two best skaters in the series, which neutralizes Tampa’s two best players. Tampa has Braydon Point, but William Nylander is having a better season.
Tampa has no equivalent to John Tavares, and then it just gets ugly from there.
The Leafs have Michael Bunting (likely for game 2 at least) and his 5v5 GAR was one of the best the NHL has seen in years. Tampa has a lot of underrated and solid players like Palat, Hagel, and Cirelli, but the Leafs have five stars before you get into the likes of Engvall, Mikheyev, Kampf, Kerfoot and Kase.
The only edge you can give TB is maybe on the 4th line, but in the NHL non-stars are practically interchangeable, and while Marron and Perry are nice players, they aren’t significantly better than anyone the Leafs will ice.
The blue-line is much the same, only this time Tampa at least has the best player – Victor Hedman would be the Toronto Maple Leafs best dman, no doubt.
But after that? The Leafs 3rd pairing is Mark Giordano and Timothy Lijegren, and it’s possible both of those guys are better than Tampa’s second best defenseman, although, who actually knows? Erik Cernak is a solid player, if not a star.
The Leafs have Muzzin, Brodie and Rielly who are all very reliable top pairing players. Since Giordano has shown up, he’s posted the numbers of a number-one defender, while Timothy Liljegren has the best numbers on the team.
Tampa’s blue-line isn’t very good after Hedman. Hedman’s partner, Jan Rutta isn’t too hot. On their second pairing, Ryan McDonough is about as good as Muzzin, and Erik Cernak is very good, but their third pairing of Cal Foote and Mikhail Sergachev is terrible. The Leafs third pairing is the best in the NHL.
First pairing gets a slight edge for Tampa, second pairing a slight edge for Toronto , and the 3rd pairing is a massive edge for the Leafs. Still, with Hedman the best I’ll give Toronto here is a draw.
In the end Tampa’s only advantage is their experience and their goalie, but neither of those things is as reliable as being the best 5v5 team or having the two best players. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are going to be the difference. Everything else is interesting and whatnot, but the Leafs two best players are dominating the NHL this year, and they are due to finally get some luck in the playoffs.
That is why Toronto will win, and why they should be the favorite.