Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Who’s Better?
The Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Tampa Bay Lightning in the First Round of the playoffs this year, but who has the better roster? (Note: It is possible that last night’s games made it so the Leafs play Boston, which seemed very unlikely at the time of writing. If this is the case, then consider this a fun exercise and nothing more!).
The Toronto Maple Leafs can’t catch a break. They finally get home-ice advantage in the playoffs and finish the season with their best point-total in franchise history and what they do get for it?
A date with the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions.
Although the Lightning have won the last two Stanley Cup’s, their team isn’t the exact same as it was for those two runs. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a fantastic roster, but they don’t have the exact same amount of depth as they did.
However, they have the same core intact and it wouldn’t be shocking if the Lightning became the first team since the 1980s to win three straight championships.
So who has the best roster?
Top-Six Forwards
Toronto Maple Leafs:
- Auston Matthews
- Mitch Marner
- John Tavares
- William Nylander
- Michael Bunting
- Alex Kerfoot
Tampa Bay Lightning:
- Steven Stamkos
- Ondrej Palat
- Nikita Kucherov
- Nick Paul
- Brayden Point
- Ross Colton
Advantage: Toronto Maple Leafs
Since Matthews is the Maurice “Rocket” Richard and potential Hart Trophy winner this year, I have to give the nod to Toronto. This is a really tight battle, but overall, I still would take Toronto’s top-six over Tampa’s.
Bottom-Six Forwards
Toronto Maple Leafs:
- Ilya Mikheyev
- David Kampf
- Pierre Engvall
- Colin Blackwell
- Jason Spezza
- Wayne Simmonds
- Ondrej Kase/Nick Robertson/Kyle Clifford *
Tampa Bay Lightning:
- Alex Killorn
- Anthony Cirelli
- Brandon Hagel
- Patrick Maroon
- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare
- Corey Perry
Advantage: Tampa Bay Lightning
Sorry Leafs fans, but Cirelli, Hagel and Killorn on the third line is better than anything Toronto can offer. Also, with that being said, as much as I love Jason Spezza and Wayne Simmonds, I’d rather have the winning pedigree that Corey Perry and Patrick Maroon bring, as the two of them have won four Stanley Cup’s and have been to six total.
Defensive Group
Toronto Maple Leafs:
- Morgan Rielly
- Jake Muzzin
- T.J. Brodie
- Mark Giordano
- Ilya Lybushkin
- Timothy Liljegren
- Justin Holl
- Rasmus Sandin
Tampa Bay Lightning:
- Victor Hedman
- Erik Cernak
- Ryan McDonagh
- Cal Foote
- Mikhail Sergachev
- Zach Bogosian
- Jan Rutta
Advantage: Tampa Bay Lightning
Hedman is the reason why the Lightning get the advantage here. He’s arguably a top-three defenseman in the world and he’s shown over the past two years that he can dominate a playoff series.
It’s not like it’s a huge advantage, but Tampa’s size on the blue-line will be Toronto’s biggest kryptonite, but if their speed can get through their physicality, the Leafs still have a chance to score a lot of goals.
Goaltender
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Jack Campbell
Tampa Bay Lightning
- Andrei Vasilevskiy
Advantage: Tampa Bay Lightning
Sorry, but if Vasilevskiy plays above-average, the Leafs may lose this series in five games.
When it comes to the playoffs, the biggest thing a team needs is a hot goaltender and for the past two years, nobody has been better than Vasilevskiy.
The 2020-21 Conn Smythe Trophy winner and 2019 Vezina Trophy winner is arguably the best goaltender in the world and he’s the Lightning’s rock. If he plays like he did the past two years, the Lightning have a good chance at not only beating Toronto but winning a third Stanley Cup.
Campbell’s stats have been just as good as Vasilevskiy’s before, but he hasn’t done it as consistently as him, so that’ll be the biggest thing determining whether or not the Leafs can win a series.
Auston Matthews Scores 60th. dark. Next
If Campbell stands on his head, the Leafs have as good of a chance as anyone to win a Stanley Cup this year. However, if he’s just average, his average won’t be good enough against Vasilevskiy.