Toronto Maple Leafs: NHL End of Season Power Rankings
#5. The Las Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights might not make the playoffs, but that is only a testament to how fluky the game of hockey can be.
Despite having one of the NHL’s best rosters, the Knight’s have suffered the duel blow of being massively injured and having a low PDO. Vegas ranks 16th in shooting percentage, and 17th in save percentage (all stats 5v5 unless noted and stats from naturalstattrick.com).
The injuries and the bad luck (the low shooting/save percentages) have combined to make them nearly miss the playoffs.
They are currently on a 7-1-1 run as they try to make the post season.
The reason I rank the Knights so highly is that they have three of the best players in the entire NHL – Jack Eichel, Max Pacioretty, and Mark Stone – and they have each missed 40+ games and played only about 30.
If you take the 10th team ranked by expected goals even though they were ravaged with injures and bad percentages, and you add three of the best hockey players in the world to their lineup, you get one of the best teams in hockey.
Sure, a team like Florida has had a great regular season, but how would a fully healthy Panthers team fare against a fully healthy Golden Knights? Not very well.
A healthy LGK easily has a top five roster (Max P, Eichel, Stone, Smith, Marchesault, Pietrangelo, Theodore) and they’ve got experience and a more reliable goalie.
If you think the Leafs playoff matchup is bad, just wait until Colorado realizes they have to play Vegas in the first round.
#4. Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers are 14-5-3 in their last 22 games, and they seem to have turned it around.
The team stats and the overall roster of the Edmonton Oilers aren’t that good.
The General Manager, Ken Holland, might be the absolute worst in the NHL, and has completely blown every opportunity to build a team around Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
From the horrible Duncan Keith contract, to the horrible Darnell Nurse contract, to the bad trades and the inability to get even a moderately OK goalie, the Oilers have screwed up at every turn.
But be that as it may, they have two of the best players in the world on their roster, and the NHL is a star driven league.
You could put Connor McDavid on the Coyotes with their current roster and they instantly become a playoff team. Add Draisaitl too and they’d be a cup contender.
Which the Oilers clearly are.
The breakouts of Puljujarvi and Bouchard are helping greatly, and so is the addition of Evander Kane, but it’s really the fact that they have the two best players in almost all games they play that puts them over the top.
Eventually you have to just assume they’ll get enough breaks that the two superstars can propell them to success. I sure wouldn’t bet against them unless it’s the Cup Final and they’re playing the Toronto Maple Leafs, which, by the way, is my prediction for what happens in the playoffs.
#3 Tampa Bay Lighting
The Tampa Bay Lightning continue to have one of the best rosters ever assembled in the NHL Salary Cap era.
They have won back-to-back Stanley Cups under probably the worst circumstances a team has ever done so in.
They have been the best team in the NHL, more or less, for at least the last five years.
They might be 3rd in the Atlantic and in danger of being a Wild Card team, but that really has more to do with the fact that four of the NHL’s best teams are in one division.
The fact they are hanging with the top teams even though they have played so, so much hockey in the last 2 calendar years, and probably are not hungry at all, is a testament to their incredible roster.
They have the NHL’s best goalie and, at worst, the 2nd best defenseman.
They know how to win, and are really, really good at it.
I ranked them first heading into the season, and the only reason they dropped down is because the two teams ahead of them are having better seasons and arguably have better rosters.
Still, a three-peat isn’t out of the question.
#2 The Colorado Avalanche and the #1 Toronto Maple Leafs
Colorado has a 12 point lead over the NHL’s actual best team, which is the Toronto Maple Leafs, but it’s a little misleading.
While the NHL’s Best Team plays in the NHL’s Toughest Division, the Avs play in the easiest division. It doesn’t make a huge difference, but Toronto , Boston, Florida and Tampa have to play each other a lot, and that doesn’t compare to having to play Minnesota, Nashville and St. Louis.
Then there is 5v5 save percentage. The Avs are ranked 2nd, the Leafs are ranked 29th.
But the Leafs are ranked 4th in 5v5 play and 2nd in Special Teams.
Colorado is ranked 11th in 5v5 play and 10th in Special Teams.
Given that 5v5 play and special teams are far more repeatable than goalie performance, I feel these two teams are much more closely matched than the standings would indicate.
When you factor in the difficulty of schedule, they become even closer, and when you compare rosters, the Leafs come out on top, making them the NHL’s best team.
As good as Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantenan are, they would rank 3rd and 4th if we were to list the top four players on each team – Matthews is clearly #1, but Marner is having an MVP season, and scores more than either of the Av’s players while providing better defense.
I love Nazem Kadri and he is having a great year, but he’s not better than John Tavares or William Nylander, and while Gabriel Landeskog might be, I doubt it.
The Leafs have the better forwards and frankly, it’s barely even a competition.
On defense the Avs have the best player in Cale Makar and he might even be enough to equalize the Leafs advantage on forward.
Deven Toews is also a great player and may be better than anything the Leafs can offer. But after that? Toronto might actually sit one of the NHL’s best pairings – Liljegren and Sandin – and Giordano is playing at a level that makes him look 27 not 37.
Colorado gets the nod here, because they have the best two players, but they also regularly play defenseman the Leafs would be scratching. Toronto’s blue line is deeper, but best player wins.
As to the goalies, both are great and injury prone, so who knows. Colorado at least has an NHL back up.
So the scorecard looks like this:
Best player: Toronto
Forwards: Toronto
Defense: Colorado
Goalie: Colorado
Special Teams: Toronto
5v5 Play: Toronto
Overall, I think it’s fair to say that the Toronto Maple Leafs have the NHL’s best roster, and are thus the NHL’s best team. Take everything I’ve said above, and factor how high the Leafs are in the standings despite some of the worst goaltending in the league.
Outperforming your goaltending is the #1 sign of future success, and that is called Tanner’s Law of Goaltending. You can look it up!
Now, given that this website is a dedicated Toronto Maple Leafs website, I think you’ll have to consider my obvious bias in the equation, but I feel like given the stats and the arguments put forth, that it’s the right call, bias aside.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are the NHL’s best team, and they are (or at least should be) the favorites to win this year’s Stanley Cup.
Next. Why This Year Is Different for the Leafs. dark
And I fully expect to be proven correct sometime in late June.