Pick Your Poison: the Toronto Maple Leafs 1st Round Options

The Toronto Maple Leafs are officially in the home stretch heading towards the playoffs, with the first round slated to start in just over a month.

The Atlantic division has a tight race at the top of the standings, with four of the leagues top ten teams jockeying for position. The Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins are all divisional rivals that the Toronto Maple Leafs could potentially face in the first round, and if they drop to a wild card spot it opens up a whole new world of possibilities.

The question is: which team would give the  Leafs the best shot at advancing past the first round? If the playoffs started today, they Leafs would be visiting Tampa Bay for game 1. (Standing for this article prior to puck-drop Friday night, and by points percentage).

Tampa Bay Lightning

Regular Season Record: 41-18-6 (7th)
3.28 Goals per game (10th)
30.2 SOG per game (19th)
20.7% on PP (16th)
2.74 Goals against per game (7th)
29.9 SOG against per game (7th)
81.3% on PK (10th)

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning played two close games early in the season, splitting the two outings. The   Leafs narrowly edged out Tampa Bay in the first meeting, scoring a late 3rd period goal and taking it in overtime 2-1. In the second meeting, Vasilevskiy stole the show, making 35 saves to help the Lightning secure a 5-3 victory.

The teams stats ( via NHL.com ) for Tampa Bay probably won’t blow anyone away. They are a top ten defensive team, largely thanks to having, arguably, the best defenseman in the league and the best goaltender in the league. But this Lightning team is gunning for a threepeat, and a first round exit seems unlikely for a team with this championship pedigree.

The one advantage the Leafs could have in this series would be Tampa Bay simply running out of gas. The Lightning have won two cups in a row and could be running on fumes by the time the playoffs begin. We all know that Toronto has not played nearly as many games over the last couple of seasons and they could be more hungry than the Lightning.

Tampa Bay and Toronto play one more game this season, we can call it the rubber match. on April 4th at Tampa Bay. This game will have major playoff implications, possibly determining which of these two teams can take over the second spot in the Atlantic and have home ice advantage in the first round.

Should the Toronto Maple Leafs fail to over take Tampa Bay and leap into second place they could fall into the wild card spots and play one of the two division leaders.

Possible Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Opponent: The Carolina Hurricanes

Regular Season Record: 43-15-7 (3rd)
3.31 Goals per game (8th)
33.9 SOG per game (9th)
25% on PP (5th)
2.37 Goals against per game (1st)
28.7 SOG against per game (2nd)
89.2% on PK (1st)

The Carolina Hurricanes sit atop the Metropolitan division , and if the  Leafs were to fall into a wild card position they could find themselves escaping the Atlantic division. While this may seem ideal at first, the Carolina Hurricanes would not be an easy first round match up for the Toronto Maple Leafs, though it would be an interesting one.

The Leafs and Hurricanes swapped goaltenders this past off season, with Petr Mrazek jumping ship to Toronto and Frederik Andersen signing in Carolina.

Leafs fans are well aware of Andersen’s shortcomings in the postseason, and would hope that trend continues in a possible seven game series against Freddy. This season Toronto and Carolina have already played three games this season with the Leafs taking two of the three. Freddy Andersen was in net for all three meetings and fared well enough, but the playoffs bring a whole new level of nerves.

Regardless of all of Andersen’s history in the playoffs, the Hurricanes are a formidable opponent, and one that Leafs nation should be hoping to avoid.

Carolina ranks at or near the top of the league in almost every category, defensive or offensive. Carolina is also the only other team in the league other than the Toronto Maple Leafs that ranks in the top 5 in both power play and penalty kill efficiency. So while it would be nice to escape the Atlantic division, I believe that it would be more advantageous for the Leafs, even if dropping to the wild card, to stick within their own division.

Florida Panthers

Regular Season Record: 44-15-6 (2nd)
4.02 Goals per game (1st)
37.0 SOG per game (1st)
23.4% on PP (10th)
2.88 Goals against per game (12th)
30.7 SOG against per game (11th)
79.6% on PK (15th)

Just this past weekend, fans got a taste of this match up when the Florida Panthers visited the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Petr Mrazek had his best game of the season, which is honestly not saying much, and the Maple Leafs cruised to a 5-2 victory. This was the first game played between these two teams so it was the  Leafs first great test to see if they could stand up to the Atlantic leading Panthers. Florida has essentially been at the top of the division for the entire season, and are in the midst of a historical offensive output.

Florida is currently 1st in the league in goals per game and shots on goal per game, rolling four lines that can all apply the pressure and score. Florida is built big, strong and fast, which is exactly the type of team that Toronto Maple Leafs critics would say is their Achilles heel. The Panthers, of course, have weaknesses of their own, and ones that the Leafs could feast on.

The Panther are middling in many defensive categories, including goals against and their very average penalty kill.

The Toronto Maple Leafs could take full advantage of this, playing even 5v5 hockey and capitalizing on their power play opportunities. The Panthers are also near the bottom of the league in face off percentage, whereas the Maple Leafs are the best team in the league in the dot.

Toronto could use this advantage to play their possession style game, and as long as they can maintain their composure while dealing with the onslaught of hits from the Panthers, the  Leafs could be successful in a seven game series with Florida.

With two more meetings slated between these two clubs, we will get a good idea of how this series may play out. Florida is currently seven points ahead of Toronto in the standings, with only 16 games remaining. It is not completely impossible to catch up to Florida and take the division, but it is unlikely.

Even if the Toronto Maple Leafs manage to win the next two match ups, it would still be a tall task to overtake the Panthers for first place and face a wild card team in the first round.