Every Possible Toronto Maple Leafs Playoffs Situation

The Statistical Probability of Every Possible Toronto Maple Leafs Playoffs Situation (Photo by Matthew Horwood/Getty Images)
The Statistical Probability of Every Possible Toronto Maple Leafs Playoffs Situation (Photo by Matthew Horwood/Getty Images) /

The Toronto Maple Leafs magic number to make the playoffs is now 13, so let’s dig into every statistical probability and what it means for the playoffs.

Coming out of Saturday’s disappointing loss to the Nashville Predators some are left wondering where the Toronto Maple Leafs really stand when it comes to the Stanley Cup Playoffs picture. This will be a deep dive into what the math tells us.

According to Playoff Status, the Maple Leafs have less than a one per cent chance of missing the playoffs altogether. In week 23 of 29, that’s great news for the organization. What matters now is what a first round matchup may look like.

The Vegas betting odds are different than the numbers presented by Playoff status. The site breaks down the math based on current records.

Toronto Maple Leafs: The Magic Numbers

According to Playoff Status, “A Winning Magic Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must win to guarantee winning a given playoff spot.” Toronto’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 13. That would put them into the second wildcard position. A magic number of 17 sees the Leafs finish with at least the first playoff spot. In order to gain the third Atlantic Division playoff seed, the Buds have a magic number of 18 with the number growing to 20 for second in the Atlantic.

At this point in the season, Toronto cannot win their way into first place of the division. They would require the Florida Panthers to lose games in order for there to be any chance. It’s important to note that even if the Leafs lose every single one of their final games they can still finish in a wildcard position.

Playoff Standings Likelihood

The reason the Maple Leafs don’t have a magic number to finish first in the Atlantic is because their percentage of reaching it is so low. In fact, it’s just at six per cent. That climbs significantly when moving to the second position in the division. There is a 30-per cent chance that the club can reach this mark and a 41-per cent chance of them finishing third.

What may be more interesting is that the Maple Leafs are more likely to finish in a division seed rather than a wildcard. They have a 17-per cent chance of being the Eastern Conference first wildcard and a 6-per cent chance of being the second wildcard.

Who the Toronto Maple Leafs Will Play in the First Round

The Maple Leafs will most likely finish as the third seed seed in the Atlantic Division. That means they would play whomever finishes second. Currently, the Tampa Bay Lightning have the greatest odds to hold that position, at 43-per cent. That’s is why there is a 50-per cent chance that the Lightning and Leafs will go head-to-head in this year’s opening round of the playoffs.

The next best odds see Toronto facing off against the Panthers. There’s only an 18-per cent chance of that coming to fruition. There’s nearly the same odds of playing the Boston Bruins at 17-per cent. Things drop off from there. The Leafs have a 9-per cent chance of playing the Carolina Hurricanes, 3-per cent odds of playing the New York Rangers, 2-per cent odds of playing the Washington Capitals, and a 1-per cent chance of playing the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Overall, the Maple Leafs are looking at a 64-per cent chance of being the visiting team in the opening round. That means there is just a 36-per cent chance of being the home team.

Stanley Cup Odds

The team given the best chance to win the Stanley Cup this year is the Colorado Avalanche. Based on their current play, they have a 20-per cent chance of winning hockey’s biggest prize. The Maple Leafs have a six-per cent chance of winning it all. That’s good enough for the seventh-best odds in the NHL.

The Leafs are given a 47-per cent chance of making it to the second-round. To progress to the conference championship, Toronto’s odds sit at 22-per cent. While it is most likely that the Avalanche will play the Panthers in the Stanley Cup Finals, there is an 11-per cent chance that the Leafs make there way all the way to the end.

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The Maple Leafs will try to defy the odds. Hopefully this is their year no matter what the math says.