The Toronto Maple Leafs Shouldn’t Trade a Top Prospect
The Toronto Maple Leafs made a big move yesterday, and the NHL Trade Deadline is today at 3 PM.
It’s that time of year again, the NHL trade deadline! The takes are piping hot and the armchair GM mock trades are as horrendous as always. Despite this, it is one of my favourite times of the NHL calendar. Between the Toronto Maple Leafs rumours and the big moves, it’s always exciting to see the dominos fall and to speculate on “who won” and what such and such team should do, as a fan.
Behind the walls inside NHL team’s war rooms though, it’s probably one of the most stressful times of the season. From outside market pressure to internal job pressure to trade market forces, it’s understandable to see why this would be the case.
This is why I think it’s important for Kyle Dubas and Co. to stick to their guns and not give in to the pressure. The Leafs fanbase is understandably irritated and fed up with the previous playoff failures over the last half-decade. They reasonably would like to see some big splashes and for the Leafs to go all-in.
I’d ultimately agree with this sentiment but, I don’t think the Toronto Maple Leafs should be giving up any of their top prospects/ELC contributing NHL players. This includes; Nick Robertson, Rodion Amirov, Matthew Knies, Topi Niemela, Timothy Liljegren, and Rasmus Sandin. This isn’t because of any protectionism I feel, it’s just smart strategy and it’s how you win cups, often times multiple.
Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Shouldn’t Give Up Top Prospects
One reason to trade prospects and go all-in is that the Toronto Maple Leafs core isn’t guaranteed to be around forever, both Auston Matthews’ and William Nylander’s contracts will expire two seasons after this one.
Mitch Marner’s and John Tavares’ will be up the following year after that and both Tavares and Morgan Rielly aren’t getting any younger. Many would argue that you can’t waste time and you must move all your chips to the centre of the table and go for it.
Although I understand this and agree with this approach sometimes, I don’t think the Leafs are at that desperation point just yet.
Their key star players are all 25 years old or younger, Rielly is only 28 and Tavares is the oldest of the bunch at 31. I do see the point with Tavares but as the second line centre, it’s not like his role is as crucial to the team as Marner or Matthews and as an elite player, they typically are able to keep their play up to a level higher as they age.
On top of this, with the apparent near NHL readiness of some of their prospects, it makes sense to keep them around to be solid NHL contributors on their ELCs or cheap second contracts. Both Sandin and Liljegren are playing regular NHL minutes and doing quite well and at $925K or less, you can’t beat that value.
You also have Robertson who is getting a chance to audition in the Leafs lineup and prospects Knies and Nick Abruzzese are rumoured to be getting an NHL chance as soon as next month. Additionally, with the Leafs cap structure, it makes the ELC players even more valuable as you need to find cheap players to fill larger roles when you allocate half of your cap space to your stars. Filling in your roster with the cheapest possible deals can be a key component to taking multiple runs at a cup.
If you are able to integrate players like Knies and Robertson into your top-nine forward group over the next couple seasons on their ELCs, it could be a game changer for the Leafs. It allows you to allocate your cap space in other areas to shore up your roster, the flexibility that could be used by Dubas and Pridham alone is worth it. Not to mention, if you feel confident enough that any of these players could step in and be an impact player for multiple cup runs before they can even negotiate a second contract, they’re way more valuable than a single cup run of a top-four defenceman or second line winger.
You don’t have to look far to see how valuable these types of players are to winning in a cap system. Tampa Bay had Ross Colton on a cheap second contract last season when they won the cup. The season before they had Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak, and Mikhail Sergachev on ELCs and they had Brayden Point and Andrei Vasilevskiy on great value second contracts. You also had the Blues with; Robert Thomas, Vince Dunn, and Ivan Barbashev on ELCs and Jordan Binnington on a cheap contract as well. Some other notable examples in recent years are Jake Guentzel and Matt Murray on Pittsburgh. You also had Tom Wilson, Jakub Vrana, and Andre Burakovsky on Washington and the list goes on.
Most or all of these players were key contributors on their cup winning teams and even if they weren’t, playing NHL minutes on a team that wins the cup is a pretty great accolade in and of itself. Each roster spot costs money and the less money you have to spend to occupy those spots is an immensely valuable commodity and should be treated as an asset in it’s own right.
Exceptions
As the saying goes, “rules are meant to be broken” and obviously, this rule has it’s limits as well. If the Toronto Maple Leafs could make a tangible upgrade to their roster by acquiring a relatively young player who is locked up (or under team control) for multiple seasons, I’d be willing to move a top prospect.
This could also apply in situations where there is an extension involved (see Mark Stone trade). Some examples would be; Jakob Chychrun, Conor Garland, Brock Boeser, JT Miller, Maxime Comtois, etc.
These players would be top of the lineup players who are either locked up for at least one more season after this, or who are under team control as a restricted free-agent. One of the big points I advocated in favour of keeping the top prospects, is prioritizing multiple cup runs. All teams in a cap league will need to replace players and so if you can keep players under control for as long as possible and get “cost certainty” out of them, it’s a big asset.
Trading high value assets for rentals is risky business and as serious potential to blow-up in your face.
One famous example is the FIlip Forsberg for Martin Erat swap, it undoubtedly set the Capitals franchise back years. If you don’t know, the Capitals traded then prospect Filip Forsberg to the Nashville Predators in exchange for veteran forward Martin Erat.
He played briefly for the Capitals and scored rarely, and the team didn’t do anything in the playoffs. Forsberg on the other hand, is well on his way to being the Predator’s franchise leader in every major offensive category. He even just set the franchise record in goals with his 211th of his career. It also begs the question, would the Caps have won a cup sooner and potentially won multiple cups had they kept Filip Forsberg?
The only other exception I would argue is reasonable, is if for some reason the Toronto Maple Leafs front office feels a player won’t live up to their potential and feel their value might be inflated by the market.
We’ll obviously never know as the Leafs will surely never publicly admit to such a thing but it can make sense. An example of this might be when Vegas traded Erik Brannstrom for Mark Stone, it’s hard to speculate but given that Brannstrom hasn’t seemed to live up to the hype, it’s possible Vegas saw something that made them second guess the sky-high potential in Brannstrom and made them more open to trading him.
What’s the Alternative?
Currently, the market seems to be all over the place. We’ve seen a middle-six complimentary forward in Brandon Hagel go to Tampa Bay for two first round picks and two bottom-six roster players. Calle Jarnkrok went for a second, a third, and a seventh. We’ve seen Ben Chiarot go to Florida for a first, third, and a prospect. We’ve also seen Hampus Lindholm go to Boston for a large haul of a first and two second round picks (however, an extension was signed not long after the deal).
The Leafs did very well picking up Mark Giordano without paying any premium assets, and I’d like to see them continue in this vein if they are going to add more today.
At this point, if I was Dubas I’d try to wait it out and go for some secondary options like Jacob Middleton, or Justin Braun on the back end. The price for them was likely lower to begin with but as the buying market slowly shrinks and the sellers find less and less suitors, it will likely drive the price down. This should allow them to swoop in and grab a solid NHL player for a bargain compared to the prices currently being paid and especially by division rivals.
Although I’d still be weary to give up a first round pick on a rental, in the Leafs current situation, it could make sense.
I think it’s also the preferable position over giving up a tangible asset that you have invested in developing and who’s path to the NHL is likely much sooner than the 2022 first round pick would be. A Matthew Knies or Nick Robertson could conceivably contribute to the Leafs cup run this season, that 2022 first is at best contributing next year, likely not for at least another two seasons.
This as well as trading other picks and lesser prospects, would be a good alternative to trading a top prospect. It can also lead to a substantial upgrade, see for an example the Jake Muzzin trade where the Leafs traded Carl Grundstrom, Sean Durzi and a first round pick. Muzzin was a key member of the Leafs backend for multiple seasons and arguably our best defender and the cost was relatively low compared to the current market or the top prospect that some teams ask for.
The other and much less popular option is to stand pat, maybe grab an extra 12th or 13th forward and a 7th or 8th defenseman and see what the team can do.
They’re a top team by most metrics and even by basic counting stats, you can do a lot worse than enter the playoffs with the roster as it’s currently constructed. On top of this, you have internal options like Matthew Knies or Nick Abruzzese or Nick Robertson to fill the gaps on their ELC deals. You could also always offer an NHL deal to Josh Ho-Sang which was rumoured to be close to happening before the Beijing Olympics last month.
On the back end you’ll likely have Jake Muzzin return at some point from injury, giving the team a nice veteran presence to enter the playoffs with. Also, keep in mind that the Leafs acquired Ilya Lyubushkin earlier this season and he’s proven capable of moving up and down the defensive pairings.
dark. Next. Leafs Trade Deadline Roundtable
Ultimately, the Toronto Maple Leafs goal is to win now. If they trade a top prospect and go on to win the cup, no one will care and if anything it will be treated as a necessary casualty on the path to victory.
However, winning is never guaranteed and if you can maximize your chances at as many cup runs as possible, I think the Leafs should choose that approach and hold onto these valuable assets who could be key pieces to multiple Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup championships.