A Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup Will Alter the NHL Forever
The Toronto Maple Leafs used to be an exciting, young, up-and-coming-team.
When the Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Auston Matthews, and then brought in Lou Lamoriello and Mike Babcock, I don’t think anyone would have bet against them winning a playoff series within five years.
In those five years, some pretty weird things happened with technology and politics that combined with a statistical revaluation in the entire sports world fractured the NHL along the lines of political parity.
I know I am not the first one to notice the NHL fans who are very interested in analytical analysis tend towards the left of the political spectrum, while those who resist change (in this case a sea change) naturally tend to be more conservative.
The NHL – a very conservative (small “c”) league, with a very conservative fanbase – experienced something that I assume is very unusual over the last half decade: It’s richest, most powerful team decided to pursue a fairly progressive strategy in team building.
In the intervening years, the Leafs have failed repeatedly to win and have been the object of much scorn and criticism from the established media. Should they win, however, the entire game of hockey as we know it will change, as those who’ve resisted at every turn will instantly become believers upon a Leafs Stanley Cup victory.
The Toronto Maple Leafs Will Remake the NHL in Their Image When They Win
The Toronto Maple Leafs hired a 30 year old GM, who immediately built the biggest analytics department in the league, and deployed a “studs and duds” salary cap strategy , focused on drafting and trading for skill, put skill on the fourth line, made the majority of their defenseman the puck-moving kind, and had their team play a possession heavy game that cheats a little bit for offense (but is, in practice, not the run and gun style its made out to be).
Over the years, the Leafs haven’t just been a topic of discussion, they’ve been completely derided, written off, and disrespected. Legacy reporters have gleefully told fans waiting to lap up any Leafs criticism about how this anonymous scout, or that anonymous league executive thinks they’re doing it all wrong.
It’s OK, supposedly, to fail for 55 years, but trying something different is a step too far.
Ignoring mid-range players and signing all their stars is something that two and a half seasons of regular season dominance can’t overcome. Only winning will do so. But a win will take the NHL’s most progressive team and normalize them.
To be sure there are those who don’t even consider the Leafs a progressive enough team, and who very much want you to know that the Leafs use of analytics is not representative of their community at large.
But, considering the relative conservativism of the league, it’s owners, managers, coaches and media, the Toronto Maple Leafs are pretty far out there. Should they win, you are likely to see their ideas – whether the use of six puck moving defenseman at once, or the refusal to draft for size and grit – catch on.
You might even even see outdated, downright silly, but still almost universally unchallenged ideas about “playoff hockey” change.
Playoff Hockey
Even in a year when the Toronto Maple Leafs went nearly a half season (36 games) winning over 80% of their points, and where their best player is scoring goals at a rate that borders on the best of all-time, I still tuned into the radio the other day and heard a consensus that they weren’t a true “playoff team.”
Now, in my opinion, that is both a ridiculous and totally understandable thing to think. It’s ridiculous because it’s easy to prove wrong (Montreal, a team the Leafs lost to 4 times in regulation out of 17 games went all the way to the final with a team that not only didn’t play “playoff hockey” but which wouldn’t even have made the playoffs in a normal season) but it’s understandable because that’s what people always say and if you challenge it, people just make fun of you, so no one does, even though the very concept is idiotic.
It didn’t seem to matter to anyone in the Legacy Media that Leafs lost a series where a) Matthews could barely shoot the puck b) Hyman skated on one leg c) Muzzin missed game seven d) Nick Foligno could barely walk, let alone play effectively and e) John Tavares missed all seven games.
Even with those injuries, they still had to lose a game where they outshot Montreal 12-0 in overtime before a knuckle puck beat the goalie from 80 feet out. In their last 11 playoff games, they have four multi-goal comebacks to force overtime. That is an accomplishment born of heart and determination – the exact things that supposedly define “playoff hockey.”
But guess what? If you don’t ultimately win, it doesn’t count. Even if you lose in the most improbable way, and in a way that doesn’t include even one of the weaknesses people say you have.
The reasons listed above for why the Leafs lost to Montreal didn’t include a single thing that could be blamed on an inability to play “playoff” hockey. If the Leafs had of won that game where Carey Price made 12 consecutive saves in overtime before his team had a single shot, which they would likely have done 99% of the time, people would have said that it was a gutsy playoff-style win.
A total fluke ends the season, and so that doesn’t matter. Ignoring literally everything that happened in the last two playoff season, we are right back at the “You can’t win with this type of team” BS.
All that changes if they win. The NHL is a copycat league.
A team like Florida appears very much to have modeled themselves after the Leafs, and they are doing alright. If the Leafs win, expect other teams to draft for skill, build their teams around a small group of stars, forget grinders at the bottom of the lineup, take chances on younger managers, and focus more on skill than ever before.
While among the fans you’ll hear people say they believed all along, and the acceptance of statistical analysis will quadruple overnight.
Next. Evaluating Ilya Lyubushkin So Far. dark
When the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup, the NHL is going to be remade in their image. This is the best thing that could possibly happen to the NHL, and I predict it will be a start of a great renaissance of skill based hockey.