Toronto Maple Leafs: Muzzin Injury Opens the Door for Sandin Promotion

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost to the Montreal Canadiens 5-2 last night, after going down 5-0.

On the bright side, the Toronto Maple Leafs had to have their worst game of the season at some point, so it’s nice to finally get it out of the way.

On the not-so-bright side, the Leafs have now lost four of their last six, though two of those games were two of their best games of the year, so I’m not sure we should be putting too much stock into this streak.

The Leafs Jake Muzzin was also injured in the game, and laid on the ice for quite a while before getting up.  He appeared to hit his head on the ice, which would be horrible on it’s own, but knowing that he just recently came back from a concussion made it much worse.

Toronto Maple Leafs and the Montreal Canadiens

Certainly this wasn’t the best game, but Monday night games in the middle of the season against after-thought teams rarely are.  The Leafs have done well enough this season that I’m not going to waste time worry about a slump or even a couple of bad games.

Sure, it’s fun for the self-hating Leafs fans to pop out every couple of weeks  so they can   say the same predictable nonsense about playoff hockey and how this team is going nowhere, and I guess it’s fun for them to do so, but honestly, it just tires me out.

Here is a quick reality check for you:  Your favorite team is never as good or as bad as you think they might be, everything is random in the NHL, and the more you realize that the more fun you’ll have.

Yeah the game sucked, but really, the Leafs will beat Montreal roughly 72% of the time, so who cares?

The main thing about last night’s game is Jake Muzzin.

Last year, and the year before, a Jake Muzzin injury was a key reason why the Leafs lost in the playoffs.  But, at 32, age related decline seems to be coming fast for Jake Muzzin.

Last season, Muzzin was an elite defender, and probably the Leafs best defenseman, ranking above the 80th percentile of all NHL defenseman in overall WAR (Wins above Replacement) .  This year Muzzin, who is a physical player with a ton of miles on his body, is down 65%.

The tendency to pair Muzzin with Holl and use them in a shut-down role isn’t helping either.   A healthy Muzzin could get back to his former heights, but realistically, 32 year-olds decline at hockey.  That’s life.

Muzzin has two more years after this one left on his contract.  He has a No Trade Clause.

Yikes!

The Jake Muzzin Situation

This is going to sound cold, but from a Machiavellian perspective, a Muzzin injury is just about the best thing that could happen to the Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup Chances. (statsnaturalstattrick.com).

There is no way Sheldon Keefe would demote a healthy Muzzin to the third pair and promote Rasmus Sandin (who was scratched last night in maybe Keefe’s worst ever coaching decision) even though the performance of the two players this season says that is what should happen.

But if Muzzin can’t play, Sandin, who might actually be the Leafs best defenseman, will get a top four role and the Leafs will be better.

The best case scenario right now is that Muzzin is fine, and somehow is rejuvenated, and starts to perform like an elite player again.

The best case realistic scenario is that Muzzin can’t play, goes on the LTIR,   the Leafs get out of his cap hit,  then upgrade their roster accordingly. Eventually a healthy Muzzin returns in a reduced, third-pairing role for the playoffs and the Leafs move him in the off-season.

The bottom line is this: Muzzin’s decline is awkward because he’s such a respected veteran, and the Leafs would probably never reduce his role in the middle of the season.  His injury gives them the opportunity to promote Rasmus Sandin to the role he’s earned, and it also gives the Leafs more time to find something to do with Dermott or Holl, because sitting out or demoting either Liljegren or Sandin is idiotic.

So while it is terrible to see a key player injured, the opportunity it offers another player to potentially become a key player perhaps makes it a blessing in disguise.