Stars and Superstars Are Who the Toronto Maple Leafs Should Trade For
The Toronto Maple Leafs are on the verge of something special.
The Toronto Maple Leafs may have had a couple of really disappointing playoffs under Sheldon Keefe, but this team has been one of the best in the NHL regular season now for almost three seasons.
Those playoff losses might have been awful, but they were well earned experience, and if the hockey clichés are even 1% true, then the Leafs gained a lot of character and leadership potential through that adversity.
Now, they stand at a crossroads. Basically, without re-hashing every single thing, if you’re reading this you know that the Leafs GM and Coach likely won’t survive another first-round exit, no matter how well the “process” is otherwise going.
Therefore, I do not believe that the current reporting about the team’s deadline plans is accurate.
From what I can gather, the Leafs are supposedly going to be hesitant to go after rentals, and are looking at mostly adding to the margins. Of course they will say this, but I don’t think it makes any sense.
Here are the the reasons the Toronto Maple Leafs have to make some big moves, and my predictions of the moves they will make.
Toronto Maple Leafs and the Trade Deadline
The Leafs have several reasons to go for it completely:
Their GM likely fired if they don’t win at least one round. This might not be fair, and it almost certainly would be the wrong move, but if the team flounders again in the spring, it’s almost guaranteed to happen. We are lucky he ever got another chance, to be honest.
They have cap flexibility. Yes, it’s true that they are currently all but maxed out, and are estimated to have about a two and a half million dollars by the trade deadline to make a move. However, the team has a lot of flexibility because some combination of Justin Holl, Nick Ritchie, Alex Kerfoot, Petr Mrazek, Pierre Engval or Wayne Simmonds could free up as much space as they could possibly need.
They have lots of assets. The above mentioned players could me moved, and it likely wouldn’t hurt the team much (Mrazek aside). Additionally, they have their first and second round picks this years still, as well as all of their picks next year. They also have a solid group of valuable prospects, many of whom will never find room for themselves on the Toronto Maple Leafs roster.
The age of their star players (Tavares, Muzzin aren’t getting any better, while Matthews and Marner are probably the best they’ll ever be).
The Toronto Maple Leafs will unlikely to ever hit on so many cheap gambles ever again Kase, Kampf, Bunting, Mikheyev, Engvall, Sandin, Liljegren, and Campbell are all bring major value for pennies on the dollar. This is the kind of dream scenario you envision when you sink so much of your cap money into so few players.
Finally, there’s the division they play in. In order to get out of the first round, they will almost certainly have to engage in a Stanley Cup Final-Esque Series against one of the best teams in hockey. That means one thing: Arms Race.
That is six reasons why the Leafs are definitely not going to be content to trade for a couple of depth players, preserve their assets and call it a day.
What the Leafs Need:
The Leafs need a star winger to make their offense untouchable, and they need an impact defender to play in their top four.
Alex Kerfoot is a good player, but he’s at the top of his game and his value will never be higher. Selling high on Kerfoot, trading Nick Ritchie, and trading Justin Holl will create $6.875 million dollars to spend.
(Note that this info is from capfriendly.com, and includes the money it’s costing them to have Nick Ritchie in the minors, not his actual full contract).
If you add that to the money that Cap Friendly projects them to have available at the deadline, they could have $9.5 million dollars to spend, which is probably enough to get two impact players.
What the Leafs Will Do
The Leafs will create cap space by trading Alex Kerfoot and Justin Holl for some picks and prospects. They likely would only be of interest to a playoff team, meaning it is unlikely they would be part of a package to bring in what the Leafs need.
They will find a team to take Nick Ritchie without retention or paying to make it happen. You will never go broke betting on an NHL team to give another chance to a player who is tough and has draft pedigree.
After that they’ll be looking to land some big fish.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Go Big or Go Home
Here is a list of players on teams who won’t make the playoffs, with reasonable contract situations.
Patrick Laine: He’s 23. It would cost a ton, but he’s a pending RFA and is the kind of add that would put the Leafs completely over the top. This is the type of thing you immediately dismiss out of hand as being stupid, but you could pay a ton for him and recoup a lot of that in the summer if you didn’t want to re-sign him. An outside the box pick, but something the Leafs should be thinking about.
Claude Giroux: He’s old but still statistically one of the very best players in the NHL. Likely the most impactful player actually available, his contract is insane, but he’s a pending UFA and Philly would likely absorb half of it. The best of the realistic targets.
Alex Debrincat: He is 23, the Hawks didn’t mention him when they mentioned the players they wouldn’t trade. Two more years at nearly $7 million.
Elias Pettersson: Also 23. His inability to live up to his contract, which has two more years after this one at over $7 million is a key reason why Vancouver is in such a mess. They likely don’t want to trade him, but crazier things have happened.
Joe Pavelski: Yeah he’s 37, but he’s also having one of the best seasons a 37 year old has ever had in the NHL. Like, he’s probably not that far off being in MVP talks. Dallas isn’t making the Playoffs, he’s a pending UFA and he is probably the cheapest player you could get with the biggest return.
Jacob Chychrun: In a world where the Leafs could somehow get Jake Muzzin to waive his NMC, this would probably be their prime target. It would be hard to play a team who always has one of Morgan Rielly, Jacob Chychrun or Rasmus Sandin on the ice.
Damon Severson: An elite right-handed puck mover with great defense. There is not another player who is better, who is on a non-playoff team, with a reasonable salary and a right hand shot. This should be, and almost certainly is, the Toronto Maple Leafs prime target.
Filip Forsberg: Only makes $6 million, has been scoring almost as much as Auston Matthews, and is a pending UFA. Only problem is Nashville is currently in a playoff position.
Dylan Larkin: Two years left at $6 million, but he’s in his absolute prime and Detroit won’t be good until he declines. They should trade him, but they likely don’t have the guts. Another player who the Leafs should go extremely hard after.
These are nine star players, any of which could put the Leafs over the top. They should do everything in their power to get at least one player on this list. If they land a star forward, a player like Mark Pysyk or Justin Braun will look more attractive as an add on the blue-line. If they add a star defender like Severson, they could likely get away with promoting Nick Robertson and Ilya Mikheyev up the lineup to replace Kerfoot.
5 Players the Leafs Should Trade For. dark. Next
Either way, don’t expect the Toronto Maple Leafs to tinker around the edges.