Josh Manson Is a Terrible Idea for the Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple are one of the NHL’s best teams, and have, in fact, picked up  78.8% of the points available to them since they turned their season around October 27th vs Chicago.

As one of the NHL’s best teams (they are fourth overall right now) the Toronto Maple Leafs will be looking to improve their team before the NHL’s Trade Deadline. 

Many players have been mentioned in the old rumour mill, but Elliotte Friedman mentioned that the Leafs  “are believed” to have interest in Josh Manson of the Anaheim Might Ducks on Hockey Night in Canada this past weekend.

Now, I don’t really know what “are believed to have interest” in means.  It doesn’t sound like Elliotte has first hand knowledge that this is true. Additionally, Manson is a right-handed pending UFA who is a defense-first (by reputation) defenseman who is very physical. This is the exact combination that almost every Leafs fan “believes” the Leafs need. 

But we have no actual proof the Leafs are interested, and it would be kind of weird if they were, because Josh Manson actually kind of sucks.

Toronto Maple Leafs Don’t Need Josh Manson

A 30 year old right-shooting defender who has spent his entire career with the Ducks, Manson has a rep for big hits and solid defense, but as we’ve seen over and over again, NHL reputations are often a far cry from  reality.

Manson once had a 37 point season, but in recent years his offensive game has all but dried up, leaving only a defensive defenseman who appears to be very Roman Polak-like in that while he may very well be a solid defender, his team tends to have to play more defense when he’s on the ice, thus negating everything he’s good at. (stats naturalstattrick.com). (War data and percentiles from @jfresh).

This is the fourth straight season in which Manson has had a negative expected goals rating, which amounts to a nearly 200 game sample size of him having a negative effect on games.

Surely some of this is usage, partners, and the fact that his team hasn’t been very good during this time.  However, there are players who thrive under these situations and Manson does not appear to be one.

His WAR rating over the last two seasons makes him better than only 14% of NHL defenders.  Strangely, considering his reputation, Manson posts better offensive numbers than defensive.

For 5v5 offense, Manson is better than 67% of NHL defensemen.  For 5v5 defense, he is only better than 34% of NHL defensemen.

You know who posts way better numbers than Josh Manson, who plays the same position, makes less money and who the Leafs wouldn’t need to spend a single asset to get into some games?

Justin Holl.

Holl also plays really tough minutes, but he does it on one of the best teams in hockey.  Josh Manson is overrated and expensive.  The Toronto Maple Leafs should not have any interest in acquiring him, as there is zero evidence that he will improve the team.