4 Ways the Toronto Maple Leafs Win the Stanley Cup This Year
The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the best teams in hockey, but can they get past their demons and finally win the Stanley Cup?
The Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t won the Stanley Cup since 1967. Heck, they haven’t even won a playoff series since the salary-cap was invented, so why on earth do we think they can win the championship this year?
Well, as Larry David loves to say, this team is pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good.
I know the regular season doesn’t mean everything, as playoff games always look different, but this team is rock-solid. From Auston Matthews to Jack Campbell, the entire structure of this team is one that should perform well in the playoffs.
However, projecting something to happen and actually doing it are two separate things. I can say that I’m going to go the gym five times this week, when in reality, I may only get out of the house once.
The Toronto Maple Leafs need to win a Best of 7 series four times and they’re Stanley Cup champions. They can lose three times in seven games, on four different occasions and still succeed.
A 16-12 record, that’s it.
When you break it down like that, it sounds pretty easy to do, but it’s way harder than it sounds. Getting past their First Round demons will be a huge step, and personally, I think if they can win one round, they can win four.
Who knows what’s going to happen over the next few months, but here are four ways the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup this year.
1. Home-Ice Advantage
The Toronto Maple Leafs have only received home-ice advantage once with the core-four intact, and it was last year when they were only allowed to have 500 people in the arena for Game 7.
The Montreal Canadiens were able to get 2,500 screaming fans into the rink for Game 6 and essentially took back home-ice advantage because of it. If Toronto was at full capacity last year, it’s probably a different series.
When it comes to playoff hockey, or in any sport, home-ice advantage is huge. It’s literally in the name: “advantage.”
Having your home crowd on your side is a huge piece to it, but it’s all about familiarity. You don’t have to travel, you can sleep in your own bed, be comfortable in your rink and do all of the same routines that you do all season.
If Toronto can maintain home-ice, they also won’t have to play Tampa Bay or Florida (more than likely) in the first round, who will be the top-three teams in the Atlantic Division. Instead, they’ll get to play a Wild Card team and it’ll ease their chances at winning a round.
2. Goaltending Doesn’t Run out of Gas
This is pretty basic but it needs to be said. Jack Campbell is playing amazing this year, but he’s also playing a ton of games. He’s on-pace for the most games played in his career, so let’s hope he doesn’t run out of gas before the playoffs start.
I’m sure we can all remember the days of Freddie Andersen and his great stats with the Leafs. However, fatigue was a huge issue with him and those extra starts in the regular season hurt him when the games mattered the most.
Toronto obviously wants home-ice advantage, but they shouldn’t do it by playing Campbell 65 games this year.
If Toronto wants to win in the playoffs, they need him fresh. If they can limit his starts and/or give him more off-days throughout the regular season, that will be great for him and the entire team.
The Leafs will get nowhere, unless Campbell is on top of his game.
However, the inverse is also true: If Campbell plays up to the level that he has (more or less) consistently maintained for the last season and a half, then the Leafs will be nearly unstoppable.
3. The Toronto Maple Leafs Best Players Perform in Playoffs
The regular season has been a cakewalk for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner throughout their entire career.
Matthews has already won a Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal-scorer, while Marner has averaged more than a point-per-game on multiple occasions. During the regular season, these two can slow down the game and score whenever they want.
However, the playoffs have been different.
Marner hasn’t scored a playoff goal in his last 17 games and has been non-existent offensively. Matthews is averaging 0.41 goals per game in the playoffs, which is a good pace, but it’s way below his 0.61 he averages in the regular season.
In the biggest moments, you need your best players to be your best players. I know it’s cliché but it’s the truth and it’s why the Tampa Bay Lightning have been so effective for years.
If Matthews and Marner can be point-per-game players in the playoffs, the Leafs should be fine and it will give them a great chance at advancing in the playoffs.
The good news is that the peripheral numbers of both players have been solid in the playoff, which suggest that, at least partially, their bad numbers are just unlucky. Another factor, at least last year, was that Matthews wrist needed surgery and he couldn’t shoot the puck like he normally does.
4. Don’t Play a Game 7
The two best words in sports are “Game Seven,” but if you’re a Toronto Maple Leafs fan, those words scare the crap out of you.
For whatever reason, the Leafs have been abysmal in Game 7’s over the past few seasons and it’s been tough to watch. During the Auston Matthews Era, Toronto has lost three Game 7’s (Boston Bruins x2, Montreal Canadiens) and have lost in Game 5, which was a do-or-die game once (Columbus Blue Jackets).
In the four biggest moments of the past five seasons, the Leafs haven’t been able to get it done.
So, how do you fix this problem?
Well, you don’t play a Game 7!
Instead, you get the job done well before you have to play that deciding game. It’s way harder than it sounds but when you get a lead in a series, you need to close. That’s been the biggest issue for the Leafs over the years and they need to make the first few games of a series their priority and not let it get to a deciding game.
Knowing the Leafs and how we’ve all been affected as a fan, they will play a Game 7 and it’ll probably be in the Stanley Cup Finals. Non of us will be able to breathe as we watch that game, but they’ll end all of the criticism by finally winning that game, and John Tavares will finally get to lift the Stanley Cup over his head.
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We can all dream, so let’s hope that scenario comes true, but the last thing we need is for the Leafs to play another Game 7…