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Toronto Maple Leafs Team Stats Update: The Reason They’re On Top

By James Tanner

DALLAS, TX - JUNE 23: (l-r) Kyle Dubas and Brendan Shanahan of the Toronto Maple Leafs handle the draft table during the 2018 NHL Draft at American Airlines Center on June 23, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
DALLAS, TX - JUNE 23: (l-r) Kyle Dubas and Brendan Shanahan of the Toronto Maple Leafs handle the draft table during the 2018 NHL Draft at American Airlines Center on June 23, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /
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The Toronto Maple Leafs are having a great year.

Not only do the Toronto Maple Leafs sit near the top of the NHL standings, but their power-play has been lights-out, their goaltending has been incredible, and they are second in the NHL in 5v5 expected goals percentage.  (All stats naturalstattrick.com and current prior to last night’s games)

The Leafs are shooting just 7.52% at 5v5 (20th ranked) and are ranked 9th overall in save percentage.  To be near the top of the standings without being at the top in either of these statistics is a) extremely impressive and b) suggestive of long-term success because the team isn’t getting very lucky, but they are winning regardless.

The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 14th in PDO (save + shooting percentage) and 7th by points percentage overall.  The seven teams ahead of the Leafs in the standings are all ranked in the top 10 (9th, 3rd, 8th, 1st, 2nd, and  4th respectively, by standings order).

If every team ahead of you in the standings is getting demonstrably luckier than you are, that is an extremely good sign.

 Additional Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

The Toronto Maple Leafs currently lead the NHL in ROW (Wins in Regulation and Overtime). As previously mentioned, they are first in points, and seventh in points-percentage.

However, since October 25th, they are first in the NHL in points percentage.

The Leafs are seventh in 5v5 goals for, and 1st in 5v5 expected goals.  If we adjust for games played, the Leafs score the 11th most goals for per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time but are second (and just .001 off of first) in expected-goals per game.

When their 20th ranked shooting percentage goes up (as it will) the Leafs will likely be the best scoring team in the NHL.

By expected-goals against, the Leafs are 13th, which isn’t great,  but when you’re first in scoring you don’t need to be.  The goaltending of Jack Campbell is near the top of the league in saves above expected, so that is neutralizing the so-so defense and making it look much better than it is.

The Leafs can reasonably expect regression from their starting goalie, but they can also expect the opposite in 5v5 scoring, which means that their record (the best since October 25th) is likely for real and not a luck-based mirage.

Their being 3rd in expected-goals percentage overall confirms this, and their being 14th in PDO further makes their record seem real.

As for the special teams, the power-play is on fire, and has recently moved to second-best in the NHL behind the Oilers. The Toronto Maple Leafs are scoring 11.77 goals per 60 minutes of power-play time.  They are almost a full goal per hour behind the Oilers.  In expected-goals, the Leafs fare a little better vs Edmonton.

The Oilers are expected to score 9.98 goals per hour, vs the Leafs 9.23.  The Leafs are a half-goal per hour ahead of 3rd.

Leafs Again Near Last in Power-Plays Drawn. dark. Next

Overall, the statistical profile for the Leafs could scarcely be better. They are a top team by any standard, and their underlying numbers are suggestive of them being a better team than most, if not all, the teams with similar point totals right now.

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