Toronto Maple Leafs: Bunting vs Hyman Justifies Kyle Dubas Cap Strategy
The Toronto Maple Leafs will take on the Edmonton Oilers tonight.
This is first game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers since Zach Hyman left the Leafs to join the Oilers.
Now, I am still now sure why someone who is already a millionaire would leave such a good organization for such a poorly run one, nor do I pretend to know what would motivate someone to ditch something they worked on for five years half way to completion to start over in a place that makes Toronto’s winters seem fun by comparison. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).
Why Zach Hyman left the Leafs is a mystery only he and his accountant know. Just kidding. He left for the money because the Oilers saw a role player they just had to have, and before you could say David Clarkson, Hyman was on a train out west.
Here is an exert from an old article titled Letting Zach Hyman Walk Is An Easy Decision:
He is approaching 30, is injury prone, has more than likely already had his best season, and historically, signing such players is a disaster. On top of avoiding that disaster, one of your 30 rivals will commit to it, which will help you slightly in the long run. Win-win.
The Oilers more than doubled Hyman’s salary and paid him $5.5 million for the next seven years. It’s a contract that says “we’re out of ideas and we hope this helps.” That the Oilers will regret this contract in the coming years of inevitable injury and decline, is the easiest and most accurate prediction I’ll ever make.
While the Oilers are shelling out big bucks for Hyman, the Leafs replaced him for less than 20% of his salary.
Michael Bunting Has Entered the Chat
For nearly the league minimum, the betrayed Toronto Maple Leafs signed a dolphin in the offseason, taught him to kick a field goal and gave him Finkles’ old jersey. I mean, they signed Michael Bunting to a league minimum deal, and he’s outperformed Hyman, taking Hyman’s old spot with Matthew’s and Marner.
This too, was very predictable:
The fact is that Marner and Matthews should be more than capable of helping any half-way decent player post the 1st line numbers of a star player. It’s not inconceivable that they could do it with a player on an ECL – i.e someone making half of Hyman’s current salary (which in itself is a huge bargain). While it’s not exactly a guarantee to find another Hyman, sticking a high-energy grinder with two superstars isn’t exactly a novel ideal, and the Leafs shouldn’t have too much trouble replicating it.
Bunting has 7 goals and 19 points in 29 games. Hyman has 11 goals and 19 points in 26 games.
Bunting has a 56% Corsi, the Leafs get 54% of the shots when he’s on the ice, and they get 58% of the scoring chances and 61% Expected Goals.
Hyman has a 52% Corsi, the Oilers get 50% of the shots when he’s on the ice, and they get 54% of the scoring chances and 56% of the Expected Goals.
Bunting has 5 goals and 16 points during 5v5 play, and has a scoring rate of 2.53 points/60.
Hyman has 7 goals and 11 points during 5v5 play, and has a scoring rate of 1.88 points/60.
On special teams, the Oilers have Hyman on their first unit, and the Leafs have Bunting on their second (when everyone is healthy). Hyman Plays 2 minutes per game on the PK, but Bunting does not kill penalties.
Breaking Down the Comparison
To be fair to Hyman, the he was the Leafs fifth best forward and maybe their ninth most important player overall (after the Big Four, Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin and Campbell) but on the Oilers he’s supposed to be like their third or fourth best player, and this makes the comparison a little unfair.
But then again, both players are riding shot-gun with one of the two best players in the world, and Bunting has (other than the PK) pretty much taken on Hyman’s role.
The bottom line is this: The Leafs were right to let Hyman walk, and they have replaced him with a player who makes 20% of his salary. That’s a massive win for the Leafs and it completely justifies their salary cap strategy of paying most of their money to four star forwards because it shows that spending mid-range money on lower-tier stars like Hyman is not necessary to compete.
Over the next couple of years, Bunting is not going to be as good or as valuable as Zach Hyman, even if he’s doing slightly better right now. Hyman is the better player and that isn’t likely to change any time soon.
Next. 2 Huge Trades the Leafs Could Make. dark
But for the money, the Leafs have the better value and they made the right decision. It’s great that right now Bunting is outperforming Hyman, but the Leafs don’t need that to be the case to have made the right move. The real lesson here is that a hockey line can only be so good, and Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are good enough that it will never be very hard for management to find a complimentary player who is useful on their line.
At a certain point there is the law of diminishing rewards to consider. You just don’t need to spend $5 million dollars to max out the Auston Matthews line. Michael Bunting is a great story, but the real success here is that the Leafs can use the money to augment the roster in ways they wouldn’t have been able to if they re-signed Hyman.