Toronto Maple Leafs: How Much Do We Believe In This Team?
The Toronto Maple Leafs are red hot – but after being hurt so many times, should we believe it?
A few years back I was fortunate enough to strike up a conversation with former Toronto Maple Leafs enforcer and fan favourite Tie Domi. I asked him what the core issue was with the Leafs and their recent playoff futility. Domi thought for a moment and then said:
“Look at the Islanders. They got Komarov and Martin; see how well they’re doing now?”
I smiled and agreed with him (I may have a number of inches on the guy but he could still knock me out without a moment’s hesitance) and the brief interaction was over. But all I was thinking about was how little that answer made sense.
Could two fourth-liners (who, from time to time, are also healthy scratches) really have that much influence on the success of an entire hockey team? What exactly was it about Komarov’s 2 goals in 44 playoff appearances (all stats from hockey-reference.com) that were so integral to the Islanders playing that many post-season contests?
Toronto Maple Leafs and a Lack of…..Bad Players?
Moreover, both of these players also suited up for Toronto for multiple playoff games and, well, we know Toronto’s history there, so why did they fail to have any impact here?
The fact is, just about any “take” or core belief can be justified if somebody wants it to fit their particular narrative. And let’s face it, in this market there is never a lack of “hot takes” or intense examinations of everything Toronto Maple Leafs.
So in an effort to sift through the bloated mass of Leafs discourse and identify what is a pertinent issue and what isn’t, I present to you ‘Beleafs’ and ‘Disbeleafs’. The former are issues I either agree with or think are legitimate and the latter are the opposite.
(And, as a disclaimer, I steadfastly acknowledge that I certainly have had some bad “takes” myself over the years so as I said in my previous article, take this for what’s it worth).
BELEAFS
1. After a seemingly long wait for the “arrival” of young defense prospects Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren, they have both finally made it and should be mainstays in the Leafs lineup.
Yep. Forget the fact that Travis Dermott suited up in place for Liljegren against the Ducks Sunday night (that’s just a way to ensure that all of the young defenders get some playing time and to increase the potential trade value of Dermott and/or Holl); Liljegren has proved he belongs.
With a 52.6 CF%, 51.3 FF% and 10.1 xGF vs. 6.5xGA, Liljegren has performed quite well with puck possession and quality of puck possession. Meanwhile, Sandin has a scorching 60.8 CF% and 59.3 FF% paired with an equally dominating 17.8xGF vs. 9.1xGA. These two move the puck exceedingly well; have demonstrated an ability to get pucks on the net from the point and already look solid and poised paired together despite being just 21 and 22 years of age. They have arrived.
2. Morgan Rielly has been lights-out and is playing some of the best hockey of his career right now.
Granted this may be a touch hyperbolic considering his monster season in 2018-2019 but that year was skewed by ridiculous scoring numbers (20 goals, 70 points with a shooting % double his norm) and was a complete outlier.
Rielly’s 56.4 CF% is higher than any previous season; he has a point share of 3.2 at the quarter-mark and his defensive point share is already over 2, which would put him at a pace that easily eclipses his best defensive point share season. He’s also logging over 24 minutes per game and has reduced his giveaway-rate significantly from last season.
At $7.5M per, Rielly is looking to be a mighty reasonable value right now. And, remember, he’s still just 27-years-old.
3. Jack Campbell is not just an integral part of this team now, but for the foreseeable future and should be locked up long-term as soon as possible.
Campbell has only started 45 total games for Toronto, sure, but he has compiled a 31-9-4 record in that time with 5 shutouts, a 2.02 GAA and a .930SV%. His quality start % is .689 (Frederik Andersen’s mark in Toronto, btw, was .558) and he has a whopping 26.9 GSAA in his tenure here.
Even his numbers in LA were great (49 GS, 2.51 GAA, .918 SV%, 2SO), despite mostly playing for a rebuilding team. His GAA this year is 1.64; he has a .946 SV% and the man is more huggable than a golden retriever puppy.
Joseph Woll may have shutout the Islanders, but he isn’t the answer between the pipes, and the rest of the younger goaltending depth (Erik Kallgren, Ian Scott, Artur Akhytamov, Vyacheslav Peksa) are either backup fodder or way too far way from being big league ready. Sign the man now!
DISBELEAFS
1. The reuniting of shutdown pair Justin Holl and Jake Muzzin has been integral to the Leafs surge over the past month or so.
I’m afraid not. These two haven’t looked great together and continue to give up a plethora of quality chances against on a regular basis. Holl’s possession numbers are poor and his quality of possession, a plus the past two seasons, has fallen into the negatives.
Muzzin may have lost a step and has a penchant for coughing up the puck now and again, but he is clearly doing the heavy lifting and has to compensate for Holl’s inability to move the puck or stay in position.
I’m hoping Holl’s daily inclusion in the lineup is to build up his trade value (Engvall and Ritchie also say hello) because he has done very little to deserve the security and minutes he’s been getting. Methinks this pairing owes a debt of gratitude to Jack Campbell for their perceived success.
2. All of these analytics and expected goals for/against statistics are meaningless numbers spouted by nerds and apologists.
Look, I get that sometimes these expected goals and chances created etc. stats can be a little annoying, particularly when a team continues to lose despite excelling in some of these categories (hello 2020-2021 Leafs playoffs!) but the fact of the matter is these stats, when there is a big enough sample size, DO explain the level of a team’s play and can predict future success.
Analytics isn’t a four-letter word- nobody should be “for” or “against” it. All it is is more detailed information. Would anyone rather have less information about a topic instead of more?
At 5-on-5 the Leafs sport a 52.7 CF%, 57.8xGF, 47.1 xGA, 55.7 SCF% (scoring chances in their favour) and 55.1 HDF% (high-danger scoring chances in their favour).
A team that is putting up these numbers should ultimately start to see the fruits of their labour and begin to have success over time, just how Toronto’s paltry 2-4-1 record in October suddenly has suddenly soared to 16-6-1 at the end of November.
3. Sheldon Keefe has turned this team around defensively and has created a system that will allow this team to finally excel in the low-scoring, hard fought affairs (i.e. playoffs).
Credit to where credit is due: the Toronto Maple Leafs do look pretty good this year.
That 3rd-line has been a beast defensively; the kids look great on the blue-line; Campbell has been nothing short of terrific, and the team has shutout Vegas, Nashville, Philly and NYI (the latter two on the road, where, after the win in Anaheim Sunday night, Toronto has tied their franchise record for consecutive road wins with 7).
They have also managed some big wins against strong/streaking teams (NYR, Tampa, Calgary, Boston). But we’ve been here before. I was so impressed when the Leafs “swept” the red-hot Oilers in 3 straight games last season, winning with each of Campbell, Andersen and Hutchinson, and I genuinely felt the losing-tides turning.
The path to the Finals, starting with the “lowly” Canadiens, was set up perfectly for a team that was chock full of grit, seasoned vets and young, dynamic talent. After such a gut-wrenching, loss; however, I told myself that I wouldn’t be fooled again; that the Leafs could go undefeated this year and I wouldn’t bat an eyelash. So I guess I should stand by that. I’ll believe that this team is for real when they starting winning playoff series’.
Next. Time For Critics To Re-Assess The Leafs. dark
Until then, turning this new leaf under Sheldon Keefe is a disbeleaf.