Toronto Maple Leafs: Predictions for the Rest of the Season

Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

The Toronto Maple Leafs will finish November with their best record for a single month in franchise history.

The Toronto Maple Leafs went 12-2-0 in November, and have won 14 of their last 16 games.  If we want to know if the Leafs are for real, it’s pretty easy to figure out that they are:

While even the best team of all-time couldn’t maintain a 12-2 pace, the Leafs are still very good, even after they inevitably cool down a bit.  The goaltending is among the best in the league, the roster is loaded, there are ways (if creative) to add to it, and the shooting percentage at 5v5 is only going to go up. (Despite having more shooting talent than pretty much any other team, the Leafs are still in the bottom-ten, league wide, in 5v5 shooting percentage).

Wins and losses are often dependent on a lucky bounce or a hot goalie, so a good way to see if a team is for real is to check out their record by Expected Goals Percentage. Though only an estimation, the Expected Goals allow us to see how a team might function if not for luck.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 33-7-2 by Expected Goals Percentage in their last 42 games, dating back to last season.  If that was their actual record, they’d probably already be Cup Champions, but regardless, we can at least see that in the vast majority of their games (roughly 80%) the Leafs play in a way in which they could reasonably win the game.

So with that in mind, here are my predictions for the rest of the season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Rest of Season Predictions

  • Despite starting ice-cold, Auston Matthews is on a 40 goal pace.  Look for him to score 50 easily and flirt with 60.
  • Marner has just 19 points in 23 games.  Look for him to score over 80 points in the remaining 59 games to break 100 for the first time in his career.
  • Matthews and Marner will both finish in the top five of the scoring race.
  • Look for William Nylander to finish with a career high 82 points.
  • Jack Campbell will win the Vezina.
  • Sandin will be elevated to the first power-play unit where he’ll flirt with 50 points and get into the Calder Conversation.
  • Unsatisfied with how last seasons’ acquisition of Nick Foligno turned out, the Toronto Maple Leafs will turn to a skilled player for their late-season addition.  I will predict said player in my next article.

Best Month, 1st Place, Another Win. dark. Next

Finally, my last prediction for the Toronto Maple Leafs 2021-22 season is that they will complete the ultimate trifecta: President’s Trophy, Atlantic Champ, Stanley Cup Champion.