Toronto Maple Leafs: Now Is the Time To Trade Dermot or Holl

The Toronto Maple Leafs are faced with a wonderful problem – they have too many good defenseman.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have three underrated star defenseman – Rielly, Muzzin and Brodie – who play every single game.  After that, they have a four man rotation of Justin Holl, Travis Dermott, Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren.

Every one of those four players is a capable top-four defenseman in the NHL.  That might sound like high praise, but in a cap world not every team has a good #4.  And in a cap-world, you just can’t afford to carry a seventh defenseman who makes above the league minimum.

It’s just a bad allocation of money, and given that the Leafs are already tight against the cap (and have Ilya Mikheyev and Petr Mrazek to deal with as well) moving an extra defenseman is an obvious move.

Additionally, Liljegren and Sandin are way, way too good to be sitting out games.  Part of the reason the Leafs had cap trouble in the past (besides a flat cap) is because they haven’t been developing players who can contribute on their entry-level deals.

Now that they have two of those, they can’t be sitting them every other night.

Toronto Maple Leafs Blue Line

One thing I think we should clear up is the idea of depth.  I have heard people say that you should protect the team in case of injury and keep the extra NHL defenseman.  (stats naturalstattrick.com)

In my opinion, this sounds reasonable, but it is wrong.  Last year the Leafs had the two of the best defenseman in the world who were not NHL regulars waiting in the wings (Liljegren, Sandin) and how did that work for them?

Whatever advantage you get from having an NHL top-four quality dman available on the bench in case of injury , the opportunity cost is just too high – if you’re going to sit Holl you can easily use his salary to make your team better every night, not just in case.

I like Holl and I like Dermott.  But both players are more expensive and have less upside than the two rookies, who are also probably better besides.  It’s a no-brainer to play the rookies.  Every single time the Leafs sit one of them they are intentionally making themselves worse.

Liljegren has a 54% Corsi.  Sandin’s is 58%.  Those are great numbers.  They have 64 and 65% expected-goals respectively.  They are dominant in their third-pairing roles.

Sandin is so good that he’s eventually going to be splitting time with Muzzin and Rielly because the Leafs will essentially have 3 x #1 left side defenseman.  It’s not impossible that Sandin is the Leafs best defenseman by the end of this season.  By the end of next season it’s likely.

As for Liljegren, he’s also fantastic.  Two draft picks becoming essential players is how good teams become great. The Toronto Maple Leafs cannot keep them out of the lineup for any reason.

It is time to trade Holl or Dermott, and if injuries occur, the Leafs will be fine because Joseph Duszak or Kristian Rubins would make a perfectly fine #6.  Keep in mind that there is essentially no discernable difference between an average #6 and a very good AHL player.

The bottom line: Liljegren and Sandin should play in 100% of the Leafs games from now on.