The Toronto Maple Leafs have won five games in a row.
Six games ago, the Leafs lost to the LA Kings, which ended a different five-game win streak. For those counting – that’s 10 wins in 11 games.
It is the kind of thing I promised would happen after the Leafs got powerfully unlucky against the Habs in the playoffs then started off the season on a cooler.
And it obviously isn’t a realistic level for the team to play at – as good as they are, no team is literally good enough to win 10 of 11 games without getting a lot of luck.
But we must ask the question that, I assume, is on everyone’s minds: Are the Toronto Maple Leafs the best team in the NHL?
Are the Toronto Maple Leafs the NHL’s Best Team?
You can’t make too much of early season results. Just as the Leafs are a better team than the results of their recent playoff series show, they are also worse than their current run would indicate.
The Leafs are currently behind the Panthers and Hurricanes, who are also rocking crazy records, and both of those teams have better Corsi stats than the Leafs, who are sixth. This is a good indication that both those teams are legitimate contenders, even if they aren’t going to live up to their current records.
By expected-goals, the Leafs are second to the Wild, another team that deserves mention in this conversation.
By points-percentage, the Leafs are sixth (after Florida. Carolina, Tampa, Washington and Edmonton). Along with the Wild, these are the NHL’s current best teams. I’d include Colorado and Vegas in here too, because they are likely having their records suppressed by injuries.
By those three metrics (puck possession, expected goals, and points percentage) the Leafs are right there with the league’s best teams.
I think Washington (lucky shooting) Minnesota (roster) and Edmonton (unsustainable power-play) are likely to drop off. Let’s eliminate them from the best team discussion, and say that the NHL’s best team is one of:
Florida, Carolina, Vegas, Colorado, Tampa or Toronto.
I think the fact that Tampa is right there in the standings, even with the slow start, the playoff hangover, and the loss of the third line (and Kucherov) is a pretty big indicator that they are still probably the best team in the NHL.
Florida and Carolina are solid teams, but you can clearly see why they are wining so many games: they are getting solid shooting percentages and save percentages. The Leafs, on the other hand, have almost 100 more scoring chances than Florida, the NHL’s second best team at creating 5v5 scoring chances.
And yet, at 5v5, the Leafs are the fourth worst shooting team in hockey. Given a) their recent three-year 208 game history of being a top shooting team and b) Matthew’s early season cold streak and c) their overall roster talent, I think it’s a good bet that they will finish the season closer to the top of the league than the bottom. (Naturalstattrick.com).
That they are winning so many games despite the low 5v5 shooting percentage bodes well for the future. Though, realistically, can they surpass Tampa? A team that always seems to win even with a superstar sidelined most of the time?
It’s also impossible to judge Colorado right now, but I think they lost more in the summer than the Tampa or Toronto did.
So are the Toronto Maple Leafs the NHL’s best team? Nah. Not yet. Can’t quite bring myself to say it. I think they’re close, but right now, Tampa remains the best and really, only the playoffs can change that.