Maple Leafs Look to Get Back on Track Despite Winning Last Game

The Toronto Maple Leafs are back at home after the shortest possible international road trip.

The Toronto Maple Leafs travelled to Buffalo on Saturday to defeat the Sabres in a game they probably didn’t deserve to win. Now they are back home and will take on the Nashville Predators in game one of a four game home stand.

It’s a good thing the Leafs are winning these days, because 13 of their first 19 games are at home.  That means that if they don’t emerge from this with a solid record, they’ll be stuck behind the eight-ball for the rest of the season.

Well, so far so good, as the Toronto Maple Leafs have won eight of their last nine games.  And, in addition to being just two points out of first-overall, the Leafs (Sabres game aside) are doing it without much puck-luck.

To Wit: Auston Matthews still has only two 5v5 goals on the year. The Leafs are 2nd in the NHL in 5v5 expected-goals percentage and they 25th in PDO (combined shooting plus save percentage at 5v5 which demonstrates, generally, how lucky a team is).

A note about expected goals: They are mathematically superior at predicting the future than actual goals, and this is an actual fact.  Every time I mention them, someone tends to send me an ill-advised, barely coherent screed about “nerd stats”  (written, irony free, on a computer), but it’s worth pointing out that at this time, disputing the existence of expected goals is similar to believing in QAnon or a flat earth.   It doesn’t matter what you believe in, a fact is a fact.

Ergo: The Leafs are good.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Nashville Predators

We have established the Leafs as one of the NHL’s best teams (probably the best) but what about Nashville?

They are 16th in expected-goals and 22nd in puck-possession.  Despite that, they are 9-5-1 for a .633 winning percentage, which is good for 19 points and 3rd in the Central (just one point out of first).

They are just two points behind Toronto and only four points out of first-overall.  But we know with a reasonably high degree of probability that teams won’t drastically underperform or overperform their expected-goals by too much.  (stats naturalsatttrick.com ).

Of course, things with low probability happen all the time.  For example,  the NHL has 16 out of its 32 teams who are currently within five points of first overall.  One of, or even several of the overachievers – Anaheim, St. Louis, Detroit, Nashville, Carolina, Florida, Edmonton –  will keep it going for way longer than they should.

So while Nashville is probably not a playoff team, they might in fact play like one, and so the Leafs can’t just assume a victory.  The effort against Buffalo was unacceptable, and you hate to see it rewarded with a victory because it can perpetuate bad habits when that happens.

The Leafs must face Nashville as if they are every bit as good as their record indicates. Look for Sandin to get back into the lineup, the Leafs to try out some new forward lines, and of course, the return of Jack Campbell after an alright debut from Justin Holl’s brother Joseph Woll.

Also, Adam Brooks in on waivers and so…