Toronto Maple Leafs: NHL Stock Market – Who Is Rising and Falling
The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off a nice couple of wins against the Flyers and Flames, and may or may not have beaten the Sabres last night (this was written ahead of last night’s game, and all stats are current as of Saturday morning).
The Toronto Maple Leafs are in second place in the Atlantic Division, looking to catch the Florida Panthers who started the season with a perfect 9-0 record.
The Lightning are fourth, the Bruins fifth. In the West, Edmonton is almost perfect and the Flames are apparently no longer a joke.
What is going on?
As fun as the start of a new season can be, things tend to usually even out as time goes on. That is why today I thought it would be fun to look at a few teams in the NHL and decide if they are going to have their stocks rise, fall or stay the same over the next five or six months.
Which teams are contenders? Which teams are pretenders? We look at the top ten teams in the NHL and predict their futures. (NHL standings from nhl.com. Stats – except where indicated – from naturalstattrick.com).
The NHL Stock Market
Florida Panthers (10-2-2) .786 ↓ They are sixth in the NHL in goals-above-expected (JFresh) and 3rd in overall shooting percentage. They 12th overall in combined special teams (slindenberg.com). They are not ranked super high in either 5v5 save or shooting percentage. Obviously they started out so hot they can only go down, but they are a legitimate contender by all statistics, and while they were getting lucky early on, it seems to be balancing out.
Carolina Hurricanes (10-2-0) .833 ↓↓ Another real contender who is doing to too well to sustain their current play. Like Florida, the Hurricanes started red hot. They are probably not as good as FLA and they are definitely not as good as their record. But a down arrow doesn’t mean they are bad, it just means they can’t maintain this pace. They are tops in the league in 5v5 PDO and cannot possibly believe Frederik Andersen is as good as he’s been.
Edmonton Oilers (10-3-0) .769 ↓↓ The Oilers are a real contender and will be as long as they have Connor McDavid on their roster. They just aren’t this good. They are by far the best special teams team in the league, owing to their PP that is over 40%. That can’t last. They are second in goals above expected, but given their roster that isn’t too crazy. The Mario/Jagr Pens never got over 30% and to my knowledge the best ever is the 78-79 Islanders who scored at 32%. So even if it’s the best PP ever, it’s still not this good. 16th at 5v5 Expected-goals is a huge red flag.
NHL Stock Market Teams 4-7
Washington (8-2-4) .714 ↓↓↓↓ They lead the NHL in goals above expected, and like Edmonton they are not ranked highly in 5v5 expected goals. They are getting lucky so far, but do not appear to be a real contender.
The Capitals have a veteran roster and Alex Ovechkin is as good as ever, so they probably aren’t far off contending. The class of the NHL is Toronto , Tampa, Colorado, Vegas, Carolina and Florida, but I think Washington is probably right their in the next group of teams. They just aren’t as good as their current record.
Toronto Maple Leafs ( 9-5-1 ) .633 ↑↑↑ They are fifth last in 5v5 shooting percentage, and 3rd last overall. They rank 16th in 5v5 save percentage. They are 6th in Corsi and 2nd in Expected-Goals Percentage. They are better than their record.
Clearly once the Leafs start to get some production from their first line, they are going to score more than they have been and they’ll likely do even better.
Anaheim (8-4-3) .633 ↓↓↓ They are 25th in Corsi. 24th in Expected-Goals Percentage. Unless the Adam Henrique led Ducks actually do have one of the best power-plays ever *(26%) and unless they can maintain being the third best special teams team in the NHL, they are going down.
St. Louis Blues (8-2-2) .750 ↓↓↓ Sorry Blues fans, but a great record via a 35% power-play is simply not sustainable.
NHL Stock Market Teams 8-10
Minnesota (9-4-0) .692 ↑↑↑ They are scoring about as much as they should be, and their special teams can only get better. They lead the NHL in Expected Goals Percentage, and their stats suggest a team winning despite bad luck, a recipe for future success.
Calgary (7-3-4) .643 ↓ They are leading the NHL in 5v5 save percentage, but have a surprisingly decent Expected Goals rating. Still, Markstrom isn’t this good, and neither is Calgary. They just don’t have the roster to sustain. Unless Oliver Kylington and Markstrom are legit superstars – then who knows?
New York Rangers .654 ↑ (7-3-3) The Rangers are 16th in overall special teams. They 25th in shooting percentage and only 10th in save percentage. Why are they doing so well? I have no clue. They are near last in expected goals, but they aren’t even scoring a ton above their expected rate – in fact they are significantly below. They should be going down, based on the stats, but they also shouldn’t be doing good right now. The Rangers are a mystery team. I have them getting slightly better because I think they will get more out of their young players as the season goes on.
We are still early days in the NHL season, and as the year goes on we will likely see Boston, Colorado, Tampa and Vegas emerge as contenders.
Of the teams currently in the top ten, I think that Florida, Carolina and Edmonton will all remain in the top ten, just without winning as frequently as they have so far. They are all contenders, they just aren’t the three best teams in the NHL.
Next. Top 10 Leafs Prospects and Complete System Overview. dark
The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Minnesota Wild are definitely better than their records indicate, and I think the Rangers are slightly better than theirs. Washington, St. Louis, Anaheim and Calgary are unlikely to finish the year in the top ten.