Don’t look now, but the Toronto Maple Leafs are three points out of first overall in the NHL. (Prior to last night’s results; this article was submitted before game time Saturday night so all stats are up to date after Friday’s results).
Not only are the Toronto Maple Leafs winning games, but they’re doing it while ranked 32nd in actual goals vs expected goals. What this means is that their actual play has been undercut by bad shooting luck or hot goalies and they haven’t scored as many goals as they have earned.
The fact that they are doing so well anyways bodes extremely well for the future.
The Leafs are on fire and not even close to being as hard to play against as they will be once their top line is scoring. It may not be scoring, but that first line is (so far) the best line in hockey.
Toronto Maple Leafs Auston Matthew and William Nylander
William Nylander has a solid seven goals in 15 games, which is about a 40 goal pace. The incredible thing is that he doesn’t have as many goals as he should have.
At 5v5, Nylander has only 3 goals and is shooting under 7% nearly half of what he’s shot in the last two seasons where he’s been between 11.5 and 13%.
As seen in a graphic in Friday night’s game, Nylander leads the NHL in shots from the slot, and is third overall in total expected goals.
Team Goals Scored Above Expected (All Situations) - November 13#LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/EchWo8KnIB
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) November 13, 2021
The Leafs control the puck 59% of the time when Nylander is on the ice, and should be getting 63% of the goals, but are only currently getting 53% of them. (All stats naturalstattrick.com).
It’s not just Nylander, however. The Toronto Maple Leafs line of Michael Bunting, William Nylander and Auston Matthews is pretty much the best line in the NHL. They are the top three forwards in the NHL, minimum 200 minutes played, by expected-goals percentage.
And yet, the Leafs are actually getting outscored 7-6 with Matthews on the ice. These results are a total fluke and will soon correct themselves, which is another reason to believe that the Leafs are primed to have an even better record in the future.
Nylander leads the NHL in 5v5 shots. Auston Matthews leads all NHL forwards in 5v5 shot-attempts, despite missing the first three games of the season. Michael Bunting is 2nd in 5v5 individual high-danger scoring chances, and Matthews is fourth (on his way to first, obviously, again, having missed games).
Matthews has just two 5v5 goals, even though he’s the best in the NHL at scoring them. Bunting only has 2 as well. These guys are going to score an absolute ton. Then the Leafs follow them up with Tavaers and Marner – it’s insane.
The bottom line is this: at 5v5, the Toronto Maple Leafs have the best first line in hockey so far and they have barely been rewarded for it. I really hope the Leafs stick with Bunting until he starts scoring like he deserves to, because he has fit in perfectly on this line.