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Toronto Maple Leafs Are a Shooting-Percentage Bender Away

By James Tanner

MONTREAL, QC - MAY 25: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs looks on prior to a face-off against the Montreal Canadiens during the first period in Game Four of the First Round of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Bell Centre on May 25, 2021 in Montreal, Canada. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)
MONTREAL, QC - MAY 25: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs looks on prior to a face-off against the Montreal Canadiens during the first period in Game Four of the First Round of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Bell Centre on May 25, 2021 in Montreal, Canada. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images) /
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The Toronto Maple Leafs winning streak ends at five games.

The Los Angeles Kings the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-1 in a game they really can’t be too upset about losing.

Sure, the Kings are not a good team and beating them is an important part of every future champ’s diet, but sometimes things just aren’t going to break for you and there is nothing to be done about it.

All the ingredients for a win were present, they just didn’t come together.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs LA Kings

The Leafs first period wasn’t their best, but they still managed to be even in scoring chances and actually ahead in dangerous chances.

The Leafs killed two penalties in expert fashion, barely allowing LA a look, but the Kings still scored two 5v5 goals and that was pretty much all they needed.  The Leafs also added a power-play goal later in the game, but a solid special teams performance falls by the wayside when you get outdone 4-0 at 5v5.

Playing from behind, the Leafs took over the game, but it was too little too  late. The stats make the Leafs look good – they had 60% puck possession, 53% of the shots and had 41 scoring chances to LA’s 23.  (all stats naturalstatrick.com).

If Auston Matthews scores on one of his 27 grade-A scoring chances, this is probably a different game.  Seriously, the Auston Matthews’ stat line for this game is crazy:

In total, he had four shots on net, and 13 shot-attempts, 11 scoring chances, and 3 dangerous scoring chances.  Zero points.

At 5v5 the Toronto Maple Leafs played 17 minutes with Matthews on the ice and had 26 shot attempts for, compared to six allowed, good for a puck possession rating of 76%, which is complete domination.   For reasons not exactly clear, the Kings outscored the Leafs 1-0 with Matthews on the ice.

And that’s the game. The Leafs didn’t play perfectly by any stretch, but realistically they will win this exact game more often than they lose it.

Jack Campbell allowed four goals on 28 shots, which is a terrible night, but here’s the thing: those four goals dropped his save percentage to .929 on the year.  Even though Campbell probably could have saved at least a couple of the goals LA scored last night, the fact is that when you’re over .930 you are likely going to regress.

Campbell’s save percentage heading into last night’s game was good enough for a top 30 all-time individual season, so odds are solid he can’t maintain that level.

Overall, it just wasn’t the Leasf night, but it’s encouraging because you can see how even when they aren’t at their best, Auston Matthews usually does enough to at least give them a shot at victory.

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The Toronto Maple Leafs still sit 4th-last in team shooting percentage, and Matthews is currently scoring on about 60% less of his shots than usual.  Considering the record, recent win streak and everything else, I’d say that bodes well for the future.

When this team starts scoring on a normal amount of their shots, who is going to beat them?

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