Are the Toronto Maple Leafs About to Trade a Defenseman?

The Toronto Maple Leafs may be shopping a defenseman.

According to Nick Kypreos, recently scratched Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Justin Holl is on the market, and earlier in the week, Elliotte Freidman mentioned that Travis Dermott was potentially available.

This is very interesting news, because it very much confirms that the Leafs believe Timothy Liljegren should be a full time NHL player, and because the Leafs lost a pretty good player earlier in the summer to protect Justin Holl in the expansion draft.

Let’s dig in.

Toronto Maple Leafs Expansion Draft

Justin Holl is right handed, cheap for a top four defenseman,  and is one of the Leafs only physical defenseman with size (not that he’s overly physical, but in the context of everyone else on the Leafs, save Jake Muzzin, he’s positively Darius Kasperitis).

If the Leafs trade him people will roast them for protecting him the expansion draft over Jared McCann, which is probably fair.  Then again, leaving your dirt-cheap, late-blooming, only known right-handed commodity on your team, and your only huge defenseman exposed would have got them roasted as well. (stats naturalstattrick.com).

There was no way to get through the expansion draft unscathed and  both sides of the Holl/McCann argument have excellent points. I’m not a fence sitter and usually have an opinion on everything, but this could truly go either way.  If they protect McCann, they hope to lose Dermott but risk losing Holl or Kerfoot.  If they don’t protect McCann, they lose him, but ultimately get through the draft at the cost of Fillip Hallander and a seventh.

They got cute and tried to parlay their winnings, hoping Dermott would be bait to keep McCann.  This let’s them make a big bet with a potentially great payoff (keeping McCann) but allows them the conservative approach of holding back Holl in case Liljegren can’t play.

As a gambler, I would have a problem passing up a bet that allows me to be conservative with my roster while offering a big pay day, and whose biggest risk that you get through the draft only losing a B prospect and a late pick.

You can’t blame them for the thought process here.  The expansion draft allowed them to make a lopsided trade in their favor they’d never be able to do under normal circumstances.  It’s usually a good move to bet with your profits, and who knows how close the Kraken came to taking Dermott, but it wasn’t exactly an unreasonably bet.

Trading a Defenseman

Trading Holl is risky because he is big, right handed and it’s not like he’s suddenly terrible, even if he is a great beneficiary of his partner being an elite player.

Trading Dermott is risky because he is a great third pairing defenseman, at least from the left side.  He’s been great from the right as well (60% expected-goals).

Ultimately, however, there is no risk free move in hockey.  The choice between keeping Holl and Dermott is a no-brainger – you keep Dermott all day long.  He’s cheaper for some reason, and he’s better.

The Toronto Maple Leafs can always go through the rest of the season with Dermott, Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin, Sandin and Liljegren, and upgrade at the trade deadline if they think it’s necessary.

Yes, the Leafs blue-line lacks physicality, but it’s skating and puck-moving is unsurpassed.   Trading Justin Holl, to LA for a third round pick is my guess at what they’ll do.  I think a 3rd is a solid return, but the real peach is the cap relief, which will allow them to stay under the limit and accumulate space as the season goes on.