Toronto Maple Leafs: Re-Drafting the Wilderness Years 2010-2015

So we are currently three games into the 2021-2022 NHL season and the Toronto Maple Leafs already have roster issues.

With Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Petr Mrazek’s health status up in the air after leaving Thursday night’s contest against the Senators with a groin injury, the team’s depth is diminishing quicker than the NHL can make up new rules.

Forwards Auston Matthews and Ilya Mikheyev are already out of the lineup with injuries, and centre Adam Brooks was claimed by Montreal off of waivers last Sunday. Top prospect Nick Robertson still needs seasoning in the minors and 2020 1st-rounder Rodion Amirov is suiting up in the KHL again this year. Needless to say, the Leafs would certainly benefit from some help internally.

Which leads me to the point of this article: the draft. Sure, some of the big top-ten names (Rielly, Matthews, Marner, Nylander) over the years have been able to make quick, significant contributions but other than these select few names the Leafs draft has been a dark void that has failed to deliver any real spoils.  The Leafs haven’t developed a star player drafted after the first round since Tomas Kaberle in the late 90s. 

The Leafs drafting from 2010-2015 features some remarkable misfires and an alarming dearth of quality NHL bodies.

Here is a look at the Toronto Maple Leafs drafts from 2010-2015 and at some of the different players they could have selected with all of those picks:

The Toronto Maple Leafs 2010 Draft

The Leafs didn’t have a 2010 1st-round pick (thanks Phil Kessel/Brian Burke!) so Brampton-native Tyler Seguin and his career 80.3 Point Shares (PS) falls to Boston (all stats are from hockey-reference.com).

And because the hockey gods continually like to crap on Toronto, this draft is pretty stacked and every single first-rounder ended up playing in an NHL game (Yes, Mark Visentin and his one game played still counts).

Here is how the Leafs drafted, with the overall selection in parenthesis:

Brad Ross (43)

Greg McKegg (62)

Sondre Olden (79)

PetterGranberg (116)

Sam Carrick (144)

Daniel Brodin (146)

Josh Nicholls (182)

Here is how the Leafs should have drafted:

Tyler Toffoli (47)

Radko Gudas (66) REAL truculence, Brian 

Philipp Grubauer (112)

John Klingberg (131)

Brendan Gallagher (147)

Mark Stone (178)

Frederik Andersen (187)

Other notable names available: 

Ryan Spooner (45), Calle Jarnkrok (51), Jason Tucker (59), Bryan Rust (80), Joonas Donskoi (99), Zach Hyman (123), Petr Mrazek (141)

2011 NHL Draft

Boston gets Dougie Hamilton 9th overall with Toronto’s 1st-rounder from the Kessel deal. Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton. I’m gonna need a minute…

Okay.

Armed with an additional two first-round picks (30th overall from the Tomas Kaberle trade and 25th overall for unloading Kris Versteeg), Toronto trades the 30th and 39th picks to Anaheim for pick 22. Anaheim drafts Rickard Rakell and John Gibson, respectively, while Toronto nets Tyler Biggs… Why do I follow this team again?

How the Leafs drafted:

Tyler Biggs (22)

Stuart Percy (25)

Josh Leivo (86)

Tom Nilsson (100)

Tony Cameranesi (130)

David Broll (152)

Denis Robertson (173)

Garret Sparks (190)

Max Everson (203)

How the Leafs should have drafted:

Rickard Rakell (30)

Nikita Kucherov (58!)

Jordan Binnington (88)

Johnny Gadreau (104)

Andrew Shaw (139)

Josh Manson (160)

Dylan Demelo (179)

Ryan Dzingel (204)

Ondrej Palat (208!) Second huge value pick by TB in this draft alone

Other notable names available:

Phillip Danault (26), Vladislav Namestnikov (27), Boone Jenner (37), Brandon Saad (43)- this pick was actually traded away by Toronto, cool cool cool-, William Karlsson (53), Vincent Trochek (64), Blake Coleman (75), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (96)

2012 NHL Draft

Okay, after two absolutely horrendous drafts, Toronto finally finds a bit of success. Morgan Rielly, with a career PS of 44.1, has the third-highest PS total out of all of the players drafted in the 1st-round. Connor Brown (380 games, 80 goals, 177 points, 16.2 PS) is, finally, a stellar late-round pick. Unfortunately, the Leafs don’t have 3rd or 4th-round picks and miss out on a few quality names.

How the Leafs drafted:

Morgan Rielly (5)

Matt Finn (35)

Dominic Toninato (126)

Connor Brown (156)

Ryan Rupert (157)

Viktor Loov (209)

How the Leafs should have drafted:

Filip Forsberg (11) Rielly still a quality pick. And Andrey Vasilevskiy (19) would have been a very bold #5

Colton Parayko (86) Also pretty bold at #35

Connor Hellebuyck (130)

Connor Brown (156)

Linus Ullmark (163)

Insert-name-here (209)

Other notable names available:

Damon Severson (60), Joonas Korpisalo (62), Esa Lindell (74), Shane Gostisbehere (78), Matt Murray (83), Frederik Andersen (87), Josh Anderson (95), Jacob Slavin (120), Alexander Kerfoot (150), Colin Miller (151)

Again there is no 2nd-round pick for the Leafs this year as it was traded to Anaheim in the Peter Holland deal. The Ducks use it to draft defenseman Marcus Peterrsson (12.5 PS) 38th overall (What is it with that team making good selections from Toronto draft picks?). The Leafs also sent a 7th-rounder to Anaheim in the Peter Holland deal but it’s not like they can do anything with the 205th overall pick….They grabbed Ondrej Kase with that pick?

How the Leafs drafted:

William Nylander (8)

Rinat Valiev (68)

J.J. Piccinich (103)

Dakota Joshua (128)

Nolan Vesey (158)

Pierre Engvall (188)

How the Leafs should have drafted: 

David Pastrnak (25) Of all players picked after Nylander, only Pastrnak and Nikolaj Ehlers (9) have higher PS numbers. 

Brayden Point (79!)

Viktor Arvidsson (112)

Kevin Labanc (171)

Victor Olofsson (181)

Ondrej Kase (205)

Other notable names available:

Dylan Larkin (15), Devon Toews (108), Danton Heinen (116), Igor Shesterkin (118)

2015 NHL Draft

Finally! The Toronto Maple Leafs have picks in every round including multiple picks in both the 2nd and 3rd-rounds; how could they possibly miss with this many bullets? Well, I guess this draft has the aim of a stormtrooper because there are more misses here than on an Ilya Mikheyev breakaway.

Thankfully the Leafs scoop Marner with the 4th overall pick- his 37.0 PS is the 4th-highest in the entire draft, sitting only behind Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Sebastion Aho (the last two are only marginally higher).

Travis Dermott at #34 overall hasn’t quite panned out yet but what’s more frustrating is that not only were there some quality defenseman picked shortly thereafter, Sebastian Aho was picked next at #35. Ouch.

How the Leafs drafted:

Mitch Marner (4)

Travis Dermott (34)

Jeremy Bracco (61)

Andrew Nielson (65)

Martins Dzierkals (68)

Jesper Lindgren (95)

Dmytro Timashov (125)

Stephen Desrocher (155)

Nikita Korostelev (185)

How the Leafs should have drafted:

Mitch Marner (4)

Sebastian Aho (35)

Anthony Cirelli (72!)

Adin Hill (76)

Connor Garland (123)

Kirill Kaprizov (135)

John Marino (154)

Andrew Mangiapane (166)

Magnus Nutivaara (189)

Other notable names available:

Zach Werenski (8), Mikko Rantanen (10), Brandon Carlo (37), Mackenzie Blackwood (42), Erik Cernak (43), Roope Hintz (49), Rasmus Andersson (53), Vince Dunn (56), Mason Appleton (168), Matt Roy (194)

Now obviously this is all in good fun and it’s pretty easy to re-draft in hindsight. Players picked in late-rounds who become regular, if not quality, players in the NHL would have been picked much earlier had those teams actually known they would pan out that well. There is a lot of luck in the draft and some teams just happen to fare better than others in the end.

All of that being said, continually finding quality players in the draft, particularly in mid-later rounds, is integral to a team’s success.  This is perfectly exemplified by Tampa Bay’s drafting record and their subsequent accomplishments and longevity.

Toronto needs to start getting key contributions from drafted players and soon, because that cap isn’t getting any higher and their high-priced players won’t be getting any cheaper. Or maybe they should just trade multiple picks to Anaheim and acquire the players the Ducks end up selecting with those picks. Hey, it’s all a crapshoot anyway.