Toronto Maple Leafs Top 10 Prospects at the Start of the 2021-22 Season
The Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t picked in the top ten since they drafted Auston Matthews first overall in 2016.
In addition to five years of low picks, the Toronto Maple Leafs have had to overcome the horrible drafting of the Mark Hunter / Lou Lamoriello years. The old-school contingent (who ultimately, and correctly, lost the power struggle to lead the team) drafted for size and grit, and set the team back years with their poor drafting.
Under Kyle Dubas the Leafs swing for the fences. Utilizing the fact that you can acquire role players at will (as Dubas has shown every summer he’s been in charge) the Leafs draft for talent with the hope of hitting on a high-end player.
This strategy requires patience, but we should start to see the fruits of their labor this season when Rasmus Sandin and possibly Nick Robertson become NHL regulars.
The Leafs farm system is potentially going to be a huge feather in Kyle Dubas’ cap, but that remains to be seen. For now, what we have is a collection of players who give the Leafs a shot at finding their Duncan Keith/Kris Letang/Nikita Kucherov (i.e that low drafted superstar who gives a team too good to draft highly anymore the kind of rocket boost needed to become an elite team).
Though lacking in the kind of high-end players that the league’s most recent bad teams have collected, the Leafs system is well regarded and getting better. Here are their current top ten prospects, ranked with a more weight given to star potential than a chance to make the NHL.
Statistics, height, weight, contract status and draft position for this article were taken from hockeydb, youtube, capfriendly.
Last Year’s Top 10 Toronto Maple Leafs Prospects
One year later, we’ve got some new information, some newly drafted players, and some players who have exited the organization.
What the Toronto Maple Leafs are lacking is graduates.
And while it would have been nice to see Timothy Liljegren, Nick Robertson or Rasmus Sandin cement themselves as NHL regulars already, it is in a contending team’s interest to be patient.
Barring a total fluke, once you’ve drafted in the top ten for a while and then turned yourself into a contender, you don’t have the luxury of using entry-level players in key roles.
Sandin appears on the verge or being a full-time player this season, his last on his entry-level deal. He could potentially provide the team a ton of value, or need more seasoning. Hard to say at this point.
While not graduating any players is a negative in most ways, it does have the added positive of making the newest top 10 prospect ranking much better than the old one. Without further ado, here is last year’s list for comparison’s sake.
10. Mikko Kokkonen 9. Filip Hallander 8. Justin Brazeau 7. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 6. Joseph Duszak 5.Mikhail Abramov 4. Rodiaon Amirov 3. Timothy Liljegren 2. Rasmus Sandin 1. Nick Robertson
Top Toronto Maple Leafs Prospects, Honorable Mention
The Leafs may lack blue-chippers, but they make up for it by having so many prospects with potential. I’ve ranked the top ten using a player’s ceiling as a guide, which means that I’ve ranked players who may be more likely to make it to the NHL lower than players who likely won’t, but who will be impact players if they do.
That doesn’t always apply, but its the guiding principle for my rankings. As such, some of these honorable mentions may have much better chances of making the NHL as players who are ranked later in the list.
Goalies:
Ian Scott and Joseph Woll are question marks at this point. Woll is 23, and Scott is 22. Goalies who are in the NHL are completely unpredictable, so trying to guess what becomes of prospect goalies (at least ones who aren’t insanely hyped) is hard to do.
Both players remain solid prospects and should vie for a callup if either of the Leafs main duo goes down for any length of time.
Defense:
William Villeneuve was picked in the fourth round of the 2020 draft and recently signed an ELC with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He scored a ton in the Q and has a bright future. I predict he’ll be in the top 10 next year.
Filip Kral is 21, was drafted in 2018 and should get a full year on the Marlies this year, he could potentially be a solid NHL player.
Joseph Duszak is a defenseman who is 24. We had him on our list last year after he scored 18 points in his first 23 AHL games. Unfortunately, he did not match that in 2021 and on a prospect ranking list, when you’re 24 and you fall, you fall hard. He has great offensive instincts and could still be a quality NHLer if given the chance.
Forward:
Roni Hirvonen (2nd round 2020) was the last cut on this list, and will for sure be on it next season, as at least three players in the current top 10 are surely on it for the last time.
Dmitri Ovchinnikov was drafted in 2020, and has played parts of three seasons in the KHL. Who knows what he is at this point, but some people are very high on his potential. He is definitely a prospect to watch in 2021-22.
Nick Abruzze is 22 and was drafted as an overager in 2019. He is a very intriguing prospect because he didn’t take the traditional route (he went from the UCHL to Harvard) and also didn’t play at all last year. Despite all this, he is said to think the game at an elite level and has a ton of potential.
Veeti Miettinen, like almost everyone on this entire list, Miettinen is a small winger with a ton of talent and some questions about his game. Some people really like him, and he could potentially be an NHL star. Or this could be the last time you think about it.
Alex Steeves was a college UFA that the Toronto Maple Leafs signed last year. It’s hard to rate college players, but some people really love him too. That is maybe the coolest thing about the Leafs system: so many of their players are really talented in their own special way, which means that someone has strong feelings about almost all of them.
Pavel Gogolov is, according to Mike Jack, the Leafs most underrated prospect. Undrafted due to his refusal to add a defensive component to his game, the Leafs signed him to an AHL deal where they hope to develop his incredible offensive game into an NHL worthy package. I’m not sure how you score 96 points in 63 OHL games and don’t get drafted, so I tend to think he must be absolutely brutal defensively, but he’s just a kid, so you’d think teams would want that kind of ability regardless. An intriguing prospect for sure.
10. Mikko Kokkonen
Age: 20
Height/Weight: 5’11” 198 lbs.
Position: Defense
Shoots: Left
Draft: 3rd Round, 84th Overall 2019
If the Toronto Maple Leafs have one player you can almost guarantee will eventually make the NHL, it’s Mikko Kokkonen.
I had him tenth last season, and this season he comes in again at #10. The reason? High floor, low ceiling. Kokkonen is, by all accounts, an extremely smart defenseman with NHL talent.
He was a 3rd round pick from 2019, and no matter which scouting report of his you read, he gets called a smart, safe player who uses his intelligence to make up for a lack of high-end talent.
Is Kokkonen ever going to turn into a star player? It’s not too likely. But he’s a good bet to eventually be a solid third pairing player like Travis Dermott is right now.
Last season Kokkonen got his first taste of the AHL and scored 7 points in 11 games, which, for a rookie defenseman making his North American and Pro debut, is quite impressive. That is really encouraging, but the small sample size makes me tentative when it comes to the hype, because he didn’t score at anywhere close to that rate at all in his four seasons playing for SM-liiga.
Kokkonen is a good prospect, and how he should be ranked depends on your perspective. As a safe bet to one day hold down an NHL job, he should be ranked higher. There are players on this list who are more likely to fail, and whom we may forget long after we get used to Kokkonen in the NHL. But most of those players have a higher ceiling, and given the Leafs approach to prospects, I think that is the best way to rank them.
9. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
Age: 21
Height/Weight: 5’10” 163 lbs.
Position: Centre
Shoots: Right
Draft: 3rd Round, 76th Overall 2017
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev is, I think, the Toronto Maple Leafs most interesting prospect. He has NHL level passing and puck control skills that are probably close to elite (it’s hard to judge when he is playing against non-NHL players).
At times, he looks like a future star player, and you can check out all sorts of highlights of him looking like one on Youtube.
Critics, however, are quick to point out that he doesn’t have NHL size or strength, and that he lacks another dimension to his game – such as an NHL shot, or speed.
There is a reason that a player that can pass like him fell to the 3rd round of the draft where skills like his either don’t exist or come with a set of problems.
Four assists in six games in his Marlies debut were encouraging. We had him seventh last year, but the Leafs got rid of both players we had between SDA and Kokkonen, and he didn’t exactly rock the KHL either.
The Toronto Maple Leafs will likely be patient with Der-Arguchintsev because he’s got a ton of talent and a beloved personality. If he makes it, he’ll make it as a star player. The odds that that happens get smaller every year, but there’s still hope.
8. Ty Voit
Age: 18
Height/Weight: 5’9″ 160 lbs.
Position: Left Wing
Shoots: Right
Draft: 5th Round, 153rd Overall 2021
If you want to know what the Toronto Maple Leafs think of this player, consider the following:
They had only three draft picks this year, and they burned one of them on a player who didn’t even play in his draft year, and who, by NHL standards, is a shrimp.
Most teams with only three picks will want to at least have something to show for it. The Toronto Maple Leafs, however, to their everlasting credit, act like they don’t give a ____ about what anyone thinks. It’s the main reason I love their current management team.
The Leafs either hit a homerun here or people are going to severely question their sanity in picking a player who didn’t even play and who is (yet another) tiny, offensive minded forward.
Then again, if you credit them with any confidence whatsoever, this is an intriguing pick. If you can go in the 5th round after a year off, the odds are if you had of played you would have been picked much higher, and this is potentially a steal for the Leafs.
Ty Voit has high-end ability, but after just a single OHL season that he started while 16 and finished while 17, to his credit, his future is anyone’s guess.
7. Mikhail Abramov
Age: 20
Height/Weight: 6′ 185 lbs.
Position: Centre
Shoots: Left
Draft: 4th Round, 115th Overall 2019
Abramov has played three seasons in the QMJHL and racked up 160 points in 150 games.
Like virtually everyone on this list, Abramaov has a ton of offensive talent, and some serious holes in his game. Does he skate well enough to be an NHL centre? Can he transition his junior scoring abilities to the pro level? Will he be strong enough to play in the NHL?
These are pretty much the questions for every Leafs prospect – the team loves to draft highly talented , smallish forwards with huge upside.
Abramov was really hyped for a while in the Leafs Prospect World but last year he failed to match his previous year’s breakout, despite playing at the same level. Personally, I wouldn’t read too much into what anyone did last year, as it was the weirdest hockey season on record.
Abramov likely begins this season in the AHL where we’ll be able to see him play more often and get a better idea of his true potential.
For now he’s an interesting prospect, mostly because he was available to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 4th round because he was seen as mostly a passer, but then he went out and more than doubled his goal scoring total the next year (this is what led the previously mentioned hype).
6. Matthews Knies
Age: 18
Height/Weight: 6’3 210 lbs.
Position: Left Wing
Shoots: Left
Draft: 2nd Round, 57th Overall 2021
Knies is just 18 and he’s absolutely huge. He was selected in the second round from the USHL, where he scored 42 points in 44 games.
Going into last season, expectations for Knies were that he would be a first round pick. Instead, he got Covid and had a terrible start to his season. While he finished strong, it was enough to knock him out of the first round, and get people saying that he failed to build on his strong rookie season in the USHL.
Their loss is the Leafs gain. Clearly recovering from Covid is difficult and if you combine those circumstances with his strong finish, it seems quite obvious that the Leafs got a bonus first round pick here. A late one, but still.
This year he is playing Big Ten games for the University of Minnesota, and while he’s taking a circuitous path to the NHL, he will likely get there eventually.
Like every player the Leafs draft, Knies is highly talented, but unlike most of them, he also has size. He is said to be a strong skater for a player of his age and size, and the Leafs could be getting the quality power-forward that their roster has lacked for years.
Of course, star level power forwards are probably the rarest of NHL players, so we’ll see. That potential alone is enough to rank him sixth.
5. Timothy Liljegren
Age: 22
Height/Weight: 6’0″ 198 lbs.
Position: Defense
Shoots: Right
Draft: 1st Round, 17th Overall 2017
Drafted 17th overall back in 2017, Timothy Liljegren had his draft stock dropped because he contracted mono in his draft year. He was supposedly going to be a top pick before that happened, but if so, he hasn’t lived up to it.
Had Liljegren been picked in the top ten, patience surely would have run thin by now. Still, even though he hasn’t set the hockey world on fire, his development has been excellent in the post-hype era of his career.
Liljegren became one of, if not the best, defensemen in the AHL, and won a Calder Cup.
This year, he is making noise about earning a full time job on the Toronto Maple Leafs blueline, but how that shakes out remains to be seen.
What we do know is that he will be an NHL player, and likely a good one. Just how high up in the lineup he plays, or whether he can ever become a star player remains in question.
His NHL numbers have been pretty good when he gets the chance, and since he shoots right handed and has a higher ceiling, he may usurp Travis Dermott’s role on the team this year, or, more likely, Justin Holl’s.
The Leafs have been patient with Liljegren, and to be fair, it’s hard to break in on a contending team. He still has a lot of potential, but the clock is ticking.
4. Topi Niemela
Age: 19
Height/Weight: 5′ 11″ 165 lbs
Position: Defense
Shoots: Right
Draft: 3rd Round, 64th Overall 2020
After the Toronto Maple Leafs drafted him in the 3rd round, Niemela immediately went out and won the Best Defenseman award at the World Juniors.
Like almost every prospect the Leafs have, Niemela is an offensively skilled player with high hockey IQ. Corey Pronman called him a “smart puck mover…with good mobility and skill, but his brain drives his value.” That’s high praise.
Niemela now ranks ahead of Liljegren on the prospect charts because he’s got a better chance of being an impact player in the NHL. The Leafs obviously have a type (smart puck moving defenseman) and Niemela is a walking example of it.
Niemela is currently back in Finland playing for Karpa in the SM-liiga but will probably sign a contract with the Leafs and finish out the year with the Marlies after their season ends.
He may not be playing for the Leafs this year, but he likely will be a candidate to make the team beginning next season.
3. Rodion Amirov
Age: 20
Height/Weight: 6′ 167 lbs
Position: Left Wing
Shoots: Left
Draft: 1st round 15th overall 2020
Moving up from last year’s #3 ranking, Rodion Amirov is the Toronto Maple Leafs third best prospect.
Statistically, Amirov is hard to get a read on because he’s been playing in the KHL since before the Leafs drafted him. At first he had no points in 21 games, but it was impressive he was even getting regular minutes.
Last year he scored nine goals and had 13 points in 39 games. He was injured earlier this summer, but appears to be back and playing in the KHL right now.
Like all Leafs prospects, Amirov is a smart player, but here is a cross section of quotes from his various scouting reports:
“One of the best two-way players eligible for the 2020 draft” – Dobber
“The strength of Amirov’s game is in his ability to protect the puck and change directions with control,” – Scott Wheeler, the Athletic
“Some of the best skill in the draft,” -Chris Peters, ESPN
“Elite Stickhandler,” – Steve Koumiamos, the Draft Analyst.
Amirov seems likely to make the NHL, and has at least a decent chance of being an impact player. Some people have said his game at this age reminds them of Nikita Kucherov. We can only hope.
2. Rasmus Sandin
Age: 21
Height/Weight: 5′ 11″ 183 lbs
Position: Defense
Shoots: Left
Draft: 1st Round 29th overall, 2018
This is likely the last time that Rasmus Sandin appears on one of these lists.
He’ become one of the AHL’s best players, and has always showed himself well in his limited opportunities so far in the NHL.
This season he appears to go from prospect to pro, and is currently scheduled to play on the Leafs 3rd defensive pairing. Is a the kind of player who can anchor an NHL blueline, or is he just a mid-level player? So far, we don’t know.
What we do know is that he has great vision, and passing, and that he’s effective without being too fast or wowing you with a particular skill.
The Leafs have banked on a philosophy of taking smart players and hoping that they can learn everything else. This is embodied by Rasmus Sandin, but it applies to just about every player on this list.
The knock on Sandin has always been that he doesn’t have the high end skill to compensate for his lack of size, so it will be interesting to see whether his intelligent game can make up for that at the NHL level.
1. Nick Robertson
Age: 20
Height/Weight: 5’9 164 lbs
Position: Left Wing
Shoots: Left
Draft: 2nd Round 53rd overall, 2020
If Nick Robertson wasn’t so small, he’d be an elite prospect with another team.
The Leafs were able to grab him when they did for two reasons. Reason number one is that he was the youngest player in his draft, and only barely qualified for it.
Reason number two is that he isn’t super fast and he isn’t big, so there are questions about how his game will translate to the NHL level.
Still, had he been three days younger, he would still likely have been a top ten pick in 2021.
All players since 1990 who scored a goal per game in the OHL, and finished their seasons while still 18, have scored 40 goals in the NHL. That’s a big ask for the undersized Robertson, but his shot is elite and he plays like he’s huge.
I have him ahead of Sandin because while Sandin is an NHL player, he is unlikely to be a star. There is a slightly lower chance that Robertson makes it in some capacity, but he’s far more likely to be a star if he does.
dark. Next. The 5 Biggest Cup Contenders at the Start of the 2021-22 Season
Robertson will start this season with the Marlies, but he’ll be on the Leafs before long and racking up goals shortly after. The ascension of Robertson, Amirov, Liljegren and Sandin is going to completely juice the Leafs core and allow them to keep their window open for the next five to ten seasons.