5 Best Case Scenarios for the Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs are easily the NHL’s most intriguing team right now.
On one hand, the Toronto Maple Leafs have lost five straight first-round playoff series.
On the other hand, each of those series is easily explainable and, put in the proper context (Tavares injury, Kadri suspensions, the best week of Elvis Merzlikins’ life) aren’t as bad as they seem.
This year’s version of the Leafs is pretty much the same as last year’s. The team (correctly) decided that trading core players and blowing up their plan, due to what amounts to weird results in a short sample size, would be a mistake.
Since process > results has been the Leafs mantra in the Kyle Dubas era, this was an easily foreseeable outcome.
Less sure, though, was whether or not the corporate suits who run the Toronto Maple Leafs would buy back in, or whether they’d overreact and either fire the GM or make him do something stupid (trade Nylander or Marner).
Thankfully, cooler heads prevailed and Dubas and Shanahan will get at least one more years to right the ship.
So how do they do that? The thing is, there isn’t much they can do. They already have (and have had) one of the league’s best rosters. They addressed every problem they had, then lost again.
Handcuffed by a Pandemic-related Salary Cap Freeze, and by having to start his tenure out by fixing Lou Lamoriello’s mistakes (Marleau, Zaitsev) Dubas has still done well for himself and could have already won a cup by doing nothing differently (If Tavares avoided a first round injury, the Leafs – at worst – play Tampa for the Cup last summer). (All stats naturalstattrick.com).
What the Leafs need are some best-case-scenarios. If the team stays relatively healthy, they’ll do some damage, but if any of the following five situations occur, then the team is going to make their fans very, very happy.
Nick Robertson Wins the Calder
Nick Robertson jumping to the NHL and performing like a star on an entry-level contract would solve so many of the Leafs problems.
They haven’t developed a star prospect outside of the top ten in the draft for about 25 years (Tomas Kaberle) and Robertson breaking that curse right now would certainly be fortuitous timing.
Additionally, the team is short on established left-wingers. With Hyman and Galchenyuk exiting this summer, the Leafs are set to audition Nick Ritchie (doesn’t score enough) and Michael Bunting (scored too much to sustain) on a hope and prayer type basis.
Robertson is a second round pick who was only eligible for his draft year by two or three days. Had he been born a couple days later, he’d have been the oldest player in last year’s draft instead of the youngest player in the prior one.
Had he been eligible for this past draft, he was would have been a first round pick for sure, and likely even a top ten pick. His age gave the Leafs a huge steal, and in addition to this, he scored a playoff goal in the NHL after jumping straight from the OHL. That is something that makes you expect him to become a star.
And, given that all three other players who scored over a goal per game in the OHL at the age of 18 over the last 30 years have scored at least 40 goals in an NHL season, expectations are rightly sky high for Robertson.
He might not even make the Leafs out of camp (there’s a lot of competition) but if he does, and if he ends up on the wing with one of the Leafs super-star duos, then anything is possible. Outside of Matthews (and maybe Nylander) Robertson probably has the best shot on the team.
Using that shot, and getting hardly any attention from opposing defenses could help the Toronto Maple Leafs achieve a possible Best Case Scenario.
Rasmus Sandin Breaks Out
Rasmus Sandin is in the final year of his ELC, and if he can give the Leafs value for his 900K they are going to be a lot better than people think.
Rielly, Brodie and Muzzin already give the Leafs three top pairing star defenseman. If Sandin also cracks the top 30, suddenly the Leafs might have the best blue-line in hockey.
A star turn from Sandin will give the Leafs a ton of options, and elevate them into the top tier of NHL teams (if they aren’t already).
Sandin has only played 31 NHL games and a breakout will be costly (he’s on the last year of his entry-level deal) but who cares?
With power-play time seemingly assured, a 30 point rookie season shouldn’t be too hard to achieve, but if he gets on the first unit then lookout – despite a bad second half of the season, the Leafs power-play still has the personnel that should make it the best in the NHL.
If Sandin is on the first PP unit, he will rack up points, but that isn’t the most important thing.
The most important thing is that if Sandin can team with Dermott to form one of the NHL’s best third pairings, then Keefe can decrease the minutes his aging star defenseman play.
What would it mean to the Leafs to get to the playoffs with a fresh and healthy Muzzin and Brodie?
Jack Campbell Is For Real
I don’t know that Jack Campbell is for real, but his personality makes me think so. If there is an easier pro athlete to cheer for, I’ve never heard of him.
But feelings aside, Campbell has a lot to prove.
Unless he’s the best goalie of all-time, the Toronto Maple Leafs won’t be getting over 80% of the possible points available to them when Campbell plays anymore, so some regression is in order.
The question is just how much?
The reason the Leafs aren’t too worried about Campbell is that while he was Vezina worthy last year, Freddie Andersen still played over half the games and was bloody awful. This means that, on balance, the Leafs goaltending was about average. Half the games were amazing, half were brutal.
Overall, the Leafs had the seventh best 5v5 goaltending in the NHL last year. Let’s assume that their power-play returns to normal (not a big assumption, they were 5th best over 208 games prior to going in the tank midway through last season) then they can probably match last year’s finish with slightly worse goaltending.
I think it’s reasonable to expect that Campbell and Mrazek can combine to be slightly above average. That’s good enough.
But, in a best case scenario, Jack Campbell turns out to be a legitimate superstar goalie – he’s a late bloomer, a la Tim Tomas (hopefully with better political views) and the Leafs are the best team in hockey.
Found Money
This one seems like the least likely to occur: one of the Leafs cast offs finds a new home and lives up to his potential by becoming a star.
However, we aren’t talking about what’s likely here today. Of course at least one of Nick Ritchie, Michael Bunting, David Kampf, Nikita Gusev or Josh Ho-Sang will be an effective player for the Leafs, but we are talking about a Martin St. Louis type best case scenario here.
Famously, despite being a shrimp compared to most NHL players, and not establishing himself by the age of 25, and subsequently being placed on waivers and claimed by the Lightning, Martin St. Louis went on to have a hall of fame career and win a Stanley Cup.
If the Toronto Maple Leafs are to become the unstoppable force I dream about at night once my mom takes away my computer access and locks me in the basement, they will need one of their castoffs to become a star.
Nick Ritchie starts scoring more than Pierre Engvall.
Michael Bunting keeps scoring like Dino Ciccarelli.
Nikita Gusev remembers that he led the KHL in scoring.
Or –
Josh Ho-Sang proves he really was right when he compared himself to Connor McDavid.
If one of these things happens, then watch out, my friends.
Tavares and Matthews Combine for 110
Last year Matthews scored 41 goals in 52 games, and won the goal scoring title by eight goals.
That’s pretty impressive, but made more so by fact that, for a two week, ten game stretch, Matthews had just two goals (tap ins) and was unable to shoot the puck properly, due to a wrist injury he would eventually need surgery to repair.
When healthy, Matthews scored 39 goals in 42 games last season. That’ a 77 goal pace, but let’s play it safe and call 70 goals a best case scenario.
In his debut season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, John Tavares scored 47 times. Let’s say that he’s got another 40 goal season in him. It’s not impossible that he does.
That gives the Leafs a best case scenario where Tavares and Matthews combine for 110 goals.
It’s extremely unlikely, as are all of our previous examples. None of them, however, are impossible.
Nick Robertson might win the Calder. Sandin might have a breakout season. Jack Campbell could be for real. One of the Leafs dumpster dives might net a diamond that someone accidently chucked in the garbage. Matthews and Tavares might combine for a ridiculous amount of goals.
dark. Next. Predicting the Leafs Opening Night Lineup
If any of these things happen, the Leafs will waltz towards a division title and several playoff victories. They are not prerequisites for success, but the fun of the preseason is that we haven’t been disappointed yet. We can dream.