Toronto Maple Leafs: Putting the Matthews Era In Its Proper Context

The Toronto Maple Leafs kick of training camp in just a couple days, with the preseason beginning Saturday the same way last season ended: against the Montreal Canadiens.

The regular season begins in less than one month when the Toronto Maple Leafs take on the Montreal Canadiens on October 13th.   One assumes the Leafs will eventually play other teams as well.

I’ve been writing about the Leafs here on Editor for all five of the Leafs most recent playoff losses, but I am not discouraged.  I am an optimistic person by nature, but as a Leafs fan for my entire life, I guess the losing just doesn’t bug me – it’s expected.

When I started this gig, Auston Matthews was a rookie and the Leafs had only made the playoffs once since 2003-04.   They have made the playoffs 100% of the time since they drafted him.  To me, that’s pretty good.

Toronto Maple Leafs In the Proper Context

Yes, I’d like to have seen a series win, but at the same time, teams built around 18 year-olds don’t generally do too much in the first couple of years.  Mats Sundin won zero playoff series in his first five years, only making the playoffs twice.  Steve Stamkos did win two series in his first five years, but only made the playoffs once.  Nathan MacKinnon made the playoffs twice in his first years, winning zero series.  It took Mario Lemieux five years just to make the playoffs, then he won a single series.

Outside of Crosby/Malkin and Kane/Toews not a lot of NHL superstars had much success in their first five years. Both of those pairs of superstars happened to come into the NHL at the start of the cap era where having two superstar players on entry-level contracts and 28 teams with no idea how to manage a salary cap gave them a major advantage that no other teams will ever get.

So yes, the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Auston Matthews era have been extremely frustrating, but with 100% playoff appearances, they are well above par for the course.

And while people like to complain about “Five Straight First Round Losses” hardly anyone ever puts them in context:

vs Washington:  Lost to Cup Contending (and eventual Cup Winning) roster that had been among the best in the NHL for a decade, while icing a team full of over-achieving rookies.

vs Boston: Again, no real business even being in the playoffs at this point, up against another cup winning legacy team.  They force game seven and lose, partially because Nazem Kadri was suspended.

vs Boston: Another game seven loss against a far superior team, again with Kadri improbably suspended.

That is three rough losses that the team should have been extremely proud about.  Winning would have been nice, but in no way should it have been expected.  The Toronto Maple Leafs – outside of Nazem Kadri – should not have been had one negative thing said about them for any of these three losses.

vs Columbus:  After Covid cancelled the season and forced a random August re-start, no team should have taken any heat for anything. Just showing up should have been good enough, due to the circumstances.  Additionally, the Leafs shot under 2% at 5v5 which gave CBJ an NHL playoff record for single-series save percentage.  Still, the Leafs showed major heart in two awesome comebacks and the numbers say they were playing great but got unlucky.

Numbers are never wrong.

vs Montreal: This one hurt the most, but the Leafs made two great comebacks. They lost Tavares in game one.  Their big trade deadline acquisition was hurt. Their best player couldn’t shoot the puck.  In one game they came back from two goals, then outshot Montreal 12-1 in OT, and lost when an uncalled headshot lead to a fluttering knucklepuck from the blueline that somehow went in the net.

What you really have here is three series where the Leafs deserved support just for trying so hard, and two where they got so unlucky it’s almost impossible to believe.

What we have today is a team with two of the best five players in the NHL, 3 x #1 defensemen (statistically, if not by reputation) and one of the deepest rosters (probably the deepest) in hockey.

The Toronto Maple Leafs enter the season with a strange combination of fan apathy and the best roster in the NHL.  The pundits will tell you Florida is the team to beat in the Atlantic, but they are wrong.  Tampa is the team to beat, but no  one is hungrier than the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have paid their dues and are now ready to win.