Toronto Maple Leafs Don’t Need to Worry About Goaltending

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a bit of a question mark about goaltending as we head into the new seasons.

Last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs received some of the best goaltending in the NHL from Jack Campbell – for 22 games. The question is whether or not he can continue to perform like he did last year.

Campbell posted a very nice .921 / 2.15 and racked up an incredible 17 wins.

It was a season that set NHL records and would have resulted in a Vezina nomination if Campbell had of avoided injury and maintained his level of play for another ten or so games.

So entering this season, a lot of people are wondering if Campbell is going to be able to replicate the 2021 season, or if he’s just a flash in the pan.

Toronto Maple Leafs Goaltending

People are right to worry about this.   Campbell was considered one of the biggest draft busts of the last several years, and is 29.  Where was this ability for the last decade?  And besides, even if Campbell was previously a star goalie, what he did last year was better than literally anyone could ever hope to maintain over the longterm.

Goalie is a completely unpredictable position.  Every year the best goalies are worth more to their team’s than the best players.  Even the McDavids or Matthews.  Essentially, if you could predict, with accuracy, who the best goalie would be every year, that player would be more valuable than even the best skaters.

But you can’t.  The rarest thing in the NHL is a goalie who is consistently elite from year to year.  The Vezina Trophy is very much a reputation based award, and it almost has to be, because otherwise it would just go to some random guy every year. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).

Without exception, anyone capable of getting an NHL job is capable of going on a crazy streak where they run the table and completely alter the course of their team’s trajectory.

So Campbell may be the newest star in the NHL (even though, as a star, he will still se some decline from last year), or he may be a one-hit wonder – the goaltending equivalent to Soul Asylum or the Baha Men.  There is simply no way to know.

But it doesn’t matter.

The Leafs don’t need Campbell to be a superstar. They just need him to be competent.

When Campbell played last season, the Leafs recorded a points-percentage of over 80%.  Essentially, for 22 games, Jack Campbell made the Leafs one the best team of all-time.

That is clearly not sustainable.  No one can be that good.  It is a once-in-a-lifetime run that would require him to be (more or less) the greatest goalie in NHL history to sustain those numbers.

Don’t forget, Campbell only played about half the season.  Freddie Andersen played more games.  He was terrible, and posted a save percentage under .900 which is very bad.  And yet, in those games, the Leafs still picked up 60% of their points, which is borderline top-ten territory.

So:

• With ridiculous goaltending bordering on magic – close to the best ever
• With bad goaltending bordering on replacement level –  still a quality team.

The point here is that the Toronto Maple Leafs don’t need Jack Campbell to be a superstar.  They just need above average goaltending.  Between Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek, there is a very high chance they’ll get it.

Nothing to worry about.