Toronto Maple Leafs: Atlantic Division Preview and Predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs were a dominant force in last season’s North Division.  Now, they return to the Atlantic Division with some of the best (and some of the worst) teams in the league.

I’m going to give you a preview of each team in this season’s Atlantic Division, take you through the major changes each team has made to their roster and predict how these changes will effect each team.  We’ll see which teams got better, which teams got worse and how they’ll stack up against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

I’ll show you all the major roster additions and losses, but not all of them.  I’m not going to worry about the players projected to be fourth line, bottom pairing, healthy scratches or minor league.

The Atlantic Division should be the most exciting division to watch this season as it’s stacked with some of the best teams in the league.  You have the defending two-time Stanley Cup champion (Tampa Bay Lightning), last season’s Stanley Cup finalist (Montreal Canadiens), the North Division regular season champ (Toronto Maple Leafs), two more of last season’s playoff teams (Florida Panthers, Boston Bruins), two rebuilding teams filled with exciting prospects (Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings) and last season’s worst team (Buffalo Sabres).

The Atlantic Division as we know it today was former after the NHL realigned it’s divisions to start the 2013-14 season.  Before then Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Boston and Buffalo were in the now defunct Northeast Division, Tampa Bay and Florida were in the also now defunct Southeast Division with Washington, Carolina and Winnipeg/Atlanta, and Detroit was in the Western Conference’s Central Division.

Because of the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting border restrictions, the Atlantic Division was temporarily dissolved last season and it’s teams found themselves divided among three different divisions:  The Toronto Maple Leafs, Montreal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators were placed in the new all-Canadian North Division, the Boston Bruins and Detroit Red Wings found themselves in the newly created East Division, and the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panther temporarily joined the Central Division.

Let’s begin with the team with the lowest expectations:

Last season, the Buffalo Sabres were the most disappointing team in the NHL.  After signing Taylor Hall before the season, fans imagined an unstoppable dynamic duo of Hall and superstar centre, Jack Eichel, blasting pucks passed helpless goaltenders all season long.

We all know how that turned out.  Jack Eichel missed most of the season with a terrible neck injury and Taylor Hall had two goals in 37 games before he was traded to the Boston Bruins for relatively little return.

The Buffalo Sabres finished dead last in the league.

Key Offseason Acquisitions:

Vinnie Hinostroza RW (Signed from Chicago)

Will Butcher D (Trade with New Jersey)

Craig Anderson G (Signed from Washington)

Aaron Dell G (Signed from New Jersey)

Biggest Offseason Losses:

Sam Reinhart C (Traded to Florida)

Riley Sheahan RW (Signed with Seattle)

Rasmus Ristolainen D (Traded to Philadelphia)

Jake McCabe D (Signed with Chicago)

Linus Ullmark G (Signed with Boston)

Carter Hutton G (Signed with Phoenix)

Roster Breakdown:

It seems apparent looking at these transactions that the Buffalo Sabres have no intentions of chasing a cup any time soon.  They’ve dumped their leading scorer from last season (Sam Reinhart), their top minute eating defenseman (Rasmus Ristolainen) and their top goaltender (Linus Ullmark).  Those are huge losses with nothing coming back to help them now.

This doesn’t even include any of the players they sold off around the trade deadline last season: Taylor Hall, Curtis Lazar, Brandon Montaur and Eric Staal.

Their goaltending is an absolute mess.  Dustin Tokarski played the most games last season out of the goalies on their current roster with 13; only two of them wins.  Craig Anderson is an interesting pickup.

Craig Anderon played well in only four games with Washington last season with a .914 AAV and even better in his two playoff games (.929 AAV), but he’s 40 years old and I expect him to get shelled with Buffalo’s lacking defense in front of him.  Who knows who Buffalo’s starting goaltender will be.

Vinnie Hinostroza and Will Butcher are the two skaters they picked up that may see significant time with the team, but they honestly wouldn’t crack the roster of many NHL teams.

The only good news is that Buffalo has a lot of young players who should continue to improve this season.  Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt, and Dylan Cozens all have superstar potential, but it’s difficult to develop in a toxic environment and that seems to be where the Buffalo Sabres find themselves right now.

In case you haven’t heard, Jack Eichel is also looking for a trade and seems to be super frustrated with the team’s losing culture, how they’ve treated his injury, and the lack of a trade so far.  He’s recently obtained a new agent to try to help facilitate a trade.  The Buffalo Sabres have been shopping him, but have said they’re in no rush to trade him.

I feel that the Sabres think they’ll get more for Eichel if they trade him during the season instead of before the season.  He’s been out a while and teams may want to see how healthy he is before they give in to Buffalo’s high asking price.  There are teams interested in him now, but it seems like they haven’t pulled the trigger because they want Buffalo to drop their price for an injured player.

Can lasts season worse team get any worse?  I think the answer is “yes.”

The Detroit Redwings

The Detroit Red Wings tied the Columbus Blue Jackets for the least amount of points in the Central Division last season.  Detroit also finished 27th out of 31 teams in the NHL standings last season.

Last season was actually an improvement for the Detroit Red Wings who finished dead last in 2019-20.  Detroit has become accustomed to placing near the bottom of the Atlantic Division and haven’t made the playoffs since 2016.

There has been a lot of hope surrounding the team though since the legendary, Steve Yzerman, has returned as GM of the organization in April 2019.  As a player, Steve Yzerman played his entire NHL career with Detroit.

As a GM, Steve Yzerman built the Tampa Bay Lightning into the powerhouse they are today.  He joined Tampa as GM in May 2010 and was nominated for GM of the Year in 2011 after taking the team to the Eastern Conference Finals despite having missed the playoffs the previous season.

Steve Yzerman would win GM of the Year in 2015 after his Tampa Bay Lightning set franchise records in wins and points and made it to the Stanley Cup Finals.  Yzerman would leave Tampa Bay as winning team to return home to Detroit as Tampa Bay would win the Atlantic Division regular season title in 2017-18 and 2018-19 and two consecutive Stanley Cups after he departed.

Here’s what the “Yzer-plan” has achieved in Detroit this offseason:

Key Offseason Acquisitions:

Pius Suter C (Free Agent from Chicago)

Nick Leddy D (Trade with New York Islanders)

Alex Nedeljkovic G (Trade with Carolina)

Biggest Offseason Losses:

Valtteri Filppula C (Signed in Switzerland)

Luke Glendening C (Signed with Dallas)

Bobby Ryan RW (UFA)

Jonathan Bernier G (Trade with Carolina)

Roster Breakdown:

Steve Yzerman may be a bandit, because a couple of these trades seem like highway robbery!  He took advantage of the New York Islanders cap situations to grab a skilled defensman in Nick Leddy for a rarely used Richard Pánik and a second round pick.  He did have to retain half of Pánik’s salary for the next two seasons, but it’s only $1.375 million, and Detroit is a rebuilding team with lots of cap space.

Yzerman also swapped goalie signing rights with the Carolina Hurricane acquiring the rights to RFA, Alex Nedeljkovic, for the rights to UFA, Jonathan Bernier, and a third round pick.  Nedeljkovic broke out with a .932 SV% and 1.90 GAA in 23 games with the Hurricane last season, but Carolina had trouble signing him to what they thought he was worth.  Detroit seemed to see more value in Nedeljkovic and signed him to a $3 million AAV deal while Jonathan Bernier ended up signing in New Jersey. (all stats nhl.com).

There is a risk in taking Nedeljkovic though since last season was his first great season and it was only a 23 game sample size.  He’s coming from a strong defense core in Carolina to a less defined defense core in Detroit and that could change his stats drastically.  If Nedeljkovic sees a great decline, Thomas Greiss could see more games.  Greiss played well last season, but at 35 years old, I’m sure the Red Wings would rather have Nedeljkovic become their goalie of the future.

The players that left Detroit this offseason were more “let go” than “lost.”  Detroit seems to be turning a corner where they are more likely to rely on their younger developed players than aging veterans.

25 year-old, Pius Suter, had a decent rookie season with the Chicago Blackhawks last year putting up 14 goals and 27 points.  He was filling in for Jonathon Toews as first line centre sandwiched between Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat most of the season though.  I don’t think he’ll be able to replicate those numbers, but I was surprised that Chicago chose not to tender him a qualifying offer.

The Detroit Red Wings also have some good young players that will probably get even better with more experience this season like Filip Hronek, Filip Zadina and Michael Rasmussen.

Will the Detroit Red Wings be better this season?  I think “yes,” but they still have a way to go to become a playoff team, especially in the Atlantic Division.

Ottawa Senators

Last regular season, the Ottawa Senators were the surprise of the North Division.  They were still unable to make the playoffs, but some hockey fans were picking them to finish dead last in the league and they finished higher than 8 teams.

Ottawa hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016-2017, but they seem to be trending in the right direction with a collection of bright young future stars.

Key Offseason Acquisitions:

Michael Del Zotto D (Signed from Columbus)

Biggest Offseason Losses:

Evgenii Dadonov RW (Traded to Vegas)

Ryan Dzingel LW (Signed with Phoenix)

Roster Breakdown:

The Ottawa Senators are on the verge of making waves in the Atlantic Division.  It may not be this season, but the Ottawa Senators and their crew of young future stars are trending upward.

The Senators roster hasn’t changed much, but what has changed is that all their young guys are coming back with a little more experience and development year after year.

Michael Del Zotto will add a bit more stability on the blueline.  Dadonov and Dzingel are two players on a list of veterans that didn’t work out with the Senators last season (Coburn, Galchenyuk, Anisimov, Gudbranson).  Their young guns are maturing enough to take over those roles.

Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot, Joshua Norris, Drake Batherson, Shane Pinto, Tim Stützle, Erik Brännström, Colin White, Alex Formenton, Artem Zub, Victor Mete, and Filip Gustavsson are still very young and improving.  Many of them will see even more ice time this season.

Will they be better?  I say “yes.”  Will they make the playoffs?  Odds are “no,” but I wouldn’t be too surprised if they did. It depends a lot on what happens with the other teams in the Eastern Conference and how much the Senators young talent develops.

They’re an underdog for sure, but if another team falters, the Senators could finally see the playoffs and not look back for years to come.

Montreal Canadiens

The Montreal Canadiens surprised the hockey world when they defeated the highly favoured Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round of the playoffs on their way to the Stanley Cup finals.  What have they done this offseason to ensure another year of playoff success?

Key Offseason Acquisitions:

Mike Hoffman W (Signed from St. Louis)

Mathieu Perreault W (Signed from Winnipeg)

David Savard D (Signed from Tampa Bay)

Biggest Offseason Losses:

Tomas Tatar LW (Signed with New Jersey)

Phillip Danault C (Signed with L.A.)

Corey Perry RW (Signed with Tampa Bay)

Jesperi Kotkaniemi C (Offer Sheet with Carolina)

Roster Breakdown:

Looking at Montreal’s signings this offseason, I’d say the team is looking worse.  Mike Hoffman is a dubious upgrade from Tomas Tatar, and Mathieu Perreault is a huge step down from Philip Danault.

As I’m writing this, the Carolina Hurricane have also signed RFA Jesperi Kotkaniemi to an offer sheet.  Montreal still has time to match the offer, but I don’t think they will. That’s a hit to their centre depth, and they’ll lose lose a young player with a seemingly bright future.

Montreal has brought in David Savard to take a roster spot opened up by an injured Shea Weber.  Savard is definitely not the difference make Shea Weber can be, but maybe Weber will pull a “Nikita Kucherov” and suddenly be healthy for the playoffs.  If that’s the case, Savard is a great depth pickup.

There are a lot of factors that will come into play for the Montreal Canadiens this season.  The health of Shea Weber and Carey Price is one.  The return of Jonathan Drouin is another.

Another factor is the growth of their young players.  Cole Caufield made an impact last season in his 10 game stint and 20 game playoff run, but how much will he improve over an entire season?  Nick Suzuki is still incredibly young and improving too.

It is a tough call, but I think the Montreal Canadiens will be worse this season.  Their strength was defense last season and the losses of Phillip Danault to free agency and Shea Weber to injury are huge.

The Montreal Canadiens barely made the playoffs last season and they’ll have a harder time making the cut this season.  If they can manage a post season birth though, they could upset some teams again with a returning Shea Weber and a hot Carey Price.

Boston Bruins

The Boston Bruins usually seem like a playoff lock.  They’ve only missed the playoffs twice since 2007-08 and have played in every post-season for the last five years.

With major offseason changes, an aging core and the potential loss of their star goaltender, is their post-season streak in jeopardy?

Key Offseason Acquisitions:

Tomas Nosek C (Signed from Vegas)

Erik Haula C (Signed from Nashville)

Nick Foligno LW (Signed from Toronto Maple Leafs)

Derek Forbort D (Signed from Winnipeg)

Linus Ullmark G (Signed from Buffalo)

Biggest Offseason Losses:

David Krejci C (Signed in Czech Republic)

Nick Ritchie LW (Signed with Toronto Maple Leafs)

Kevan Miller D (Retired)

Jeremy Lauzon D (Seattle Expansion Draft)

Tuukka Rask G (UFA)

Jaroslav Halak G (Signed with Vancouver)

Roster Breakdown:

The major changes for the Boston Bruins started at last season’s trade deadline.  When they were able to acquire Taylor Hall, Curtis Lazar and Mike Reilly in a couple great trades with Buffalo and Ottawa.  Hall and Reilly may have been considered rental players, but Boston was able to re-sign them both.

Losing David Krejci is a huge loss, but signing Taylor Hall softens the blow quite a bit.  It was great seeing both players playing together, but the salary cap would’ve made it difficult to keep both.  Krejci would still be a great player on any NHL team next season, but he decided to play in front of his family in the Czech Republic this season.

I was very surprised that Boston didn’t tender Nick Ritchie a qualifying offer.  He seems like the type of gritty player the Bruins love.  It’s interesting that Ritchie signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs and it seems like his replacement may be former Toronto Maple Leafs, Nick Foligno.

Nick Ritchie and Nick Foligno are similar players, but I’d rather have Ritchie right now.  Foligno is getting older and has been suffering some injuries while Ritchie should be just entering his prime.

Tomas Nosek and Eric Haula are two great two-way centre signings for Boston on cheap deals.

The biggest question mark for the Boston Bruins right now is in goal.  Tuukka Rask won’t be able to play for a while after having hip surgery and is actually a UFA right now.  He says he only wants to play for Boston, and it seems like Boston is going to hold off on signing him until he’s ready to go.  It’s a smart move to save some cap space.

Long time backup goalie, Jaroslav Halak has also left the Bruins.  Halak had an okay season last year and though he’s 36 years old, he seems to have more to give.  Rookie, Jeremy Swayman had an excellent season last year though and he may be the Bruins goalie of the future.  I think the decision to let Halak go was to make room for Swayman.

For now, the Bruins will most likely go with newly signed Linus Ullmark in net.  If Ullmark can put up a .917 SV% with the lowly Buffalo Sabres, imagine what he could do on a great defensive team like the Boston Bruins.  There is a chance Swayman could battle Ullmark for the starting job though and then who knows what will happen when Rask is ready.

Patrice Bergeron is 36, Tuukka Rask is 34 and Brad Marchand is 33, so some of the Bruins core may start aging out soon.  The departures of Krejci, Halak and Millar makes them a bit younger, but they did add 33 year-old Nick Foligno.

Are the Bruins better?  It’s tough to say.  I’m going to say they look slightly worse, but GM Don Sweeney has a habit of adding great players at the trade deadline, and this team in built for playoff hockey.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Back-to-back Stanley Cup champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning return to the Atlantic Division.  Will they dominate the division like they did in 2018-19?

Key Offseason Acquisitions:

Corey Perry RW (Signed from Montreal)

Brian Elliott G (Signed from Philadelphia)

Biggest Offseason Losses:

Yanni Gourde C (Seattle Expansion Draft)

Blake Coleman RW (Signed with Calgary)

Tyler Johnson C (Traded to Chicago)

Barclay Goodrow LW (Traded to New York Rangers)

David Savard D (Signed with Montreal)

Curtis McElhinney G (UFA)

Roster Breakdown:

Tampa Bay really lost a lot of middle six depth this offseason.  Gourde, Coleman and Goodrow brought a lot to the team in terms of grit, two-way play and scoring.  They’re all players Tampa obviously wanted to keep, but they fell victim to the cap crunch.

Shedding Tyler Johnson’s contract is bitter sweat.  He’s still a good player, though he’s not worth the $5 million AAV.  He was pushed down the depth chart in Tampa Bay though and might shine through in Chicago.

David Savard was a rental player, and it wasn’t expected that he’d resign with Tampa Bay anyway.

Curtis McElhinney and Brian Elliott both had terrible seasons last year but giving with Elliott a chance to redeem himself might be worth the risk.  McElhinney was bad on a powerhouse team and at least Brian Elliott was bad on Philadelphia team that couldn’t seem to do anything right last season. It shouldn’t matter much anyway because Andrei Vasilevskiy will probably play a lion’s share of the games.

The biggest plus for Tampa Bay will be if they can have Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos healthy for a full season.  The Kucherov injury actually helped Tampa in the offseason and was a major factor in winning them the Stanley Cup.

With Kucherov on the LTIR for a full season, the got the cap relief they needed to keep a lot of their star talent.  Adding a $9.5 million player in the playoffs when the salary cap is void is obviously a huge bonus.

Did the champs get better?  No.  They’ve lost way too much depth, grit and secondary scoring.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs won their first division title since 1999-2000.  They’ve won in the North Division, they’ve won in the Northeast Divison, but they haven’t won an Atlantic Division title yet.  Can the Toronto Maple Leafs repeat a division title?

Key Offseason Acquisitions:

Michael Bunting LW (Signed from Phoenix)

Nick Ritchie LW (Signed from Boston)

David Kämpf C (Signed from Chicago)

Petr Mrázek G (Signed from Carolina)

Biggest Offseason Losses:

Zach Hyman LW (Signed with Edmonton)

Nick Foligno LW (Signed with Boston)

Joe Thornton LW (Signed with Florida)

Frederik Andersen G (Signed with Carolina)

Roster Breakdown:

Losing Zach Hyman is a blow to the heart of Leafs Nation.  Toronto Maple Leafs fans loved everything Zach Hyman brought to the team.  He was a key asset at only $2.25 million AAV, but in a world were cap is king, $5.5 million AAV is too much for the Toronto Maple Leafs to spend on Zach Hyman.

When comparing what the Toronto Maple Leafs lost and what they gained, you can’t really include Nick Foligno in the process.  He was a rental player and the intention was never to keep him around long term.

In my opinion, the Toronto Maple Leafs seem to have replaced Galchenyuk with Ritchie, Thornton with Kämpf and Andersen with Mrázek.  The Maple Leafs win all of those moves.  Even Foligno for Ritchie I would consider a win for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Now, losing Hyman for Bunting is a tough one.  In a way, Zach Hyman was the Wendel Clark or the Darcy Tucker of his era with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He’s a hard-nosed gritty guy who could score that fans loved.

I feel that once Bunting has a chance to show what he can do in Toronto, Maple Leafs are going to love him like they loved Zach Hyman.  Bunting is known as a pest who can score and gets compared to Brad Marchand.  Last season, Hyman had 15 goals in 43 games and Bunting had 10 goals in 21 games, so imagining Bunting achieves a similar scoring pace to Hyman isn’t ridiculous.

I think the biggest concerns for the Toronto Maple Leafs to address during the offseason were to solidify their goaltending, upgrade their third line defensively and add more secondary scoring.  I think they’ve done all those things to some degree.

Petr Mrázek had a way better season than Freddie Andersen last season, but it will be interesting to see how they both do after switching teams.  Many fans had grown attached to Andersen, but with the emergence of Jack Campbell and Petr Mrázek as his tandem partner, the Toronto Maple Leafs should have some stellar goaltending.

Adding David Kämpf gives them a better shutdown centre for their third line and allows them to move Alex Kerfoot to the wing.  I personally believe Bunting and Ritchie will score more goals than Hyman and Galchenyuk/Foligno would have. If Ondřej Kaše can get healthy, he should help with secondary scoring as well.

Did the Toronto Maple Leafs get better this offseason?  I will boldly say, “yes.”

Now here’s a prediction of the Atlantic Division standings:

Atlantic Division Standings Prediction

1. Florida Panthers
2. Toronto Maple Leafs
3. Tampa Bay Lightning
4. Boston Bruins
5. Montreal Canadiens
6. Ottawa Senators
7. Detroit Red Wings
8. Buffalo Sabres

It’s not surprising to see the Buffalo Sabres at the bottom of the division.  They finished at the bottom of the league last year and after dumping their top end talent it looks like they’ll be even worse than last year.  I’m predicting they’ll be “one of the worst seasons in NHL history” bad.

The Detroit Red Wings are progressing, but not enough to compete for a playoff spot yet.  They may get pounded in this tough division, but who knows what Steve Yzerman will have up his sleeve as we make our way through the season.

I took the safe bet with the Ottawa Senators placing them in sixth place.  They have a lot of good young talent though and if a few of them start clicking, they could place higher.  They’re still rebuilding, but they may be farther along than any other rebuilding team in the league.

The Montreal Canadiens had a tough time making the playoffs last season, and I think they’ll have trouble again this season. They could still make the playoffs with a fifth place finish in the division if the Atlantic Division can get both wild cards.

For years, the Boston Bruins have been one of those teams that doesn’t care too much about regular season standings as long as they make the playoffs.  They’re still a gritty two-way team that’s built for the playoffs and could make waves in the post-season.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have lost more key roster players without replacements than any other team in the division.  They still have a great core though with Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy.  They’ll be down but not out.

The Toronto Maple Leafs should come back hungry this season after so much playoff disappointment.  More stability in goal should help them progress through the season much easier, but for Toronto Maple Leafs fans, it’s the playoffs that count.

Though I’m cheering on the Toronto Maple Leafs, I believe the Florida Panthers have the best chance at winning the Atlantic Division title this season.  They had a great run last season putting up more wins and more points than any other team that will be in this reformed Atlantic Division and all they’ve done this offseason is improve.

I thoroughly enjoyed watching last season’s North Division with the all-Canadian rivalries that developed, but it will also be nice to see these Atlantic Division rivalries renewed.  I also enjoyed watching the Toronto Maple Leafs win the North Division regular season title, and I hope they have even more success this season.