Toronto Maple Leafs: Can Jack Campbell Recreate the Magic?

The Toronto Maple Leafs will enter the upcoming season as favorites to compete for a Stanley Cup.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be in the weird and unusual position of being a favorite in gambling odds and of anyone who uses statistical models to predict the future, while simultaneously having very low expectations among fans and the NHL media, who have overreacted to some unlikely and unfortunate results.

If I had to guess, I would say that most NHL “experts” will have the Leafs incredibly underrated in the pre-season predictions.

Whether or not the Leafs are closer to the team their roster says they are, or the team the NHL’s fans and commentators think they are, will depend a lot on how Jack Campbell plays.

Toronto Maple Leafs and Jack Campbell

Jack Campbell is a former first round bust who, at the age of 29, finally lived up to his talent and played out of his mind for 22 games.

Is he for real?

If he is, then the Leafs have the deal of the century, paying their star goalie just $1.6 million.  If he isn’t, then Petr Mrazek is pretty decent insurance, but the Leafs are a much different team.

The problem?  Jack Campbell, NHL Superstar, has existed for only 22 games.

But what a set of games! In 2021, Campbell was an incredible 17-3-2 with a 2.15 GAA and a .921 save percentage. (NHL.com).  These numbers, over a full season, would be enough to win a Vezina trophy, or at the very least, get a nomination.

If Campbell can perform at anywhere close to that level, then the Toronto Maple Leafs will be one of the best teams in the NHL.  Though Campbell played great in the playoffs (he wasn’t in any way responsible for the loss to Montreal) the Leafs still didn’t win.  I think a lot of the anxiety fans feel right now would be alleviated if the Leafs had a more established goalie.

Because as much as the ability of their team to come up big in big games has been called into question, knowing you has a rock-solid goalie would go a long way in calming everyone’s nerves.  And maybe they have that – we just don’t know.   What we do know is that the guy who plays the sport’s most important decision has only been good for about 25% of a normal NHL season.

I think that’s OK, though. The fact is, no NHL goalie is a sure thing. Every team is one bad year from their goalie away from being surprisingly terrible.  It is the least predictable position in the game, maybe even in pro sports.  Sure, having a name-brand goalie with a ton of successful experience would placate the fan base, but it would be superficial, because with goalies there is always much less of a guaranteed performance than any other player.

Jack Campbell might not be able to replicate his 22 game run of near perfection, but maybe he will.  The main thing is that he’s got a cheap contract that allowed the Toronto Maple Leafs to bring in a decent insurance policy, something most teams can’t afford to do, due to the high cost of an established starting goalie.

Freddie Andersen taught us recently that even established star goalie who no one worries about can quickly fall from grace.  If anything, this should make us more comfortable, not less, about not having an established goalie.

It says here that Jack Campbell being able to repeat his magical 2021 performance is only the difference between the Leafs being the NHL’s best team, and the NHL’s 5th best team.  If he’s great, they’re going to be unstoppable, but if he’s merely good or loses his job, then it won’t hurt the team too much.