An Early Guess as the Toronto Maple Leafs 2021-22 Lineup

The Toronto Maple Leafs have brought back most of the same team they had last year.

Though the Toronto Maple Leafs made many new additions to the roster, they only lost one major player – Zach Hyman.  The other departures – Joe Thornton, Zach Bogosian, Frederick Andersen – sound like big losses because they are all name-brand players, but in reality they are a fourth liner, sixth defenseman and backup goalie.  Not a big deal.

With the return of most of their lineup, the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to have a very interesting training camp with incredibly fierce job competition.  At first glance, the only lineup spots open are the top two left wing spots, however, I don’t think we can count Wayne Simmonds, Pierre Engvall or even Jason Spezza as having definite, every day jobs.

It seems likely that they will, but one never gets any respect and the other two are getting up their and massive decline could come for them at any time.

Though training camp is still a month away, let’s take our best guess at what lineup the Toronto Maple Leafs will deploy on opening night.

Toronto Maple Leafs 2021-22 Opening Night Lineup

First Line

Despite a really bad playoff series against Montreal , the Toronto Maple Leafs have the best first-line in the NHL.  Auston Matthews is the second best hockey player in the world, and the only one even close to Connor McDavid (Matthews finished with a higher WAR last year despite McDavid scoring over 100 points).

Mitch Marner’s stock is low due to a bizarre 18 game playoff goalless streak and a penchant for tossing the puck over the glass.  And yet, the underlying numbers were still off-the-charts excellent, and it is clear that the only thing stopping him from taking his regular season game into the playoffs has been bad luck and a small sample size.

Marner broke out last year by turning in an elite defensive performance to match his 100 point scoring pace (which he’d already demonstrated).  If Marner is again in the 80th percentile (or above) of defensive forwards, and continues his incredible scoring rate (he was second in the NHL in 5v5 scoring behind McDavid last year) then he is on track to be the third best player in the NHL.

In the first five years’ of their careers, Marner has played about 70 less games than MacKinnon did, and has about 40 more points, while playing way better defense.  If MacKinnon is the consensus #3 player in the world right now, it will be interesting to see how the two-yeas-younger-but-way-better-at-the-same-age Marner will develop.

Anyways, joining the two superstars on this line is going to be, I predict, Michael Bunting.  Bunting can score garbage goals, and that is what the Leafs duo needs.  They made Hyman into an elite player, and while they might not be able to make Bunting all the way as good as Hyman,  Bunting’s ability to slam home garbage goals is going to make him very popular in Toronto, who loves this kind of player.

The Second Line

John Tavares and William Nylander are the best second-line pairing in the NHL, and I expect them to have an absolutely huge year because Nylander just never seems to stop getting better.

Prior to Marner turning into an elite defensive presence, they were essentially interchangeable at 5v5.  If Nylander played every game with Matthews, and got on the first PP unit, I’m sure he’d approach 100 points, and he might anyways.

Nylander continues to be the NHL’s most underrated forward, and in a way that reminds you of politics, there are actually people who are Leafs fans who don’t like him.  It’s honestly embarrassing, but what can you do?

Nylander and Tavares spent the most time last year playing with Alex Galchneyuk, and I’d have liked to see him come back, but since that doesn’t appear likely, I predict this spot will go to Nick Ritchie.

Ritchie gives the line some much needed edge, and though he’s never really scored at a higher rate than Pierre Engvall, given the chance here, he might.  If it doesn’t work it doesn’t work, but I think the job here is Ritchie’s, at least until Nick Robertson forces his way into the top six.

Toronto Maple Leafs – Jason Spezza (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)

The Fourth Line

I hated the signing of Wayne Simmonds to a two-year contact on the day it was signed, and I hate it even more today.

I like Simmonds, and his play last year was better than I thought it would be.  But the reason I wish they didn’t sign him is that coaches have a tendency to play the best name, and not the best player.

If Jason Spezza and Wayne Simmonds are the best players for the fourth line, then they should play. If not, then they shouldn’t , since blocking a path to develop your young players is pretty dumb.  I also believe that even if you were once a star, or even if you had a very strong playoff series and have become a fan favorite, you should earn your job based on merit.

In my opinion, the best kind of fourth line should be made up of entry-level players who are trying to earn jobs higher up in the lineup.  Most importantly, your fourth line should be talented and able to score.

Since most teams play grinders and ancient players on their fourth line, I think an offense-first unit gives the best chance to exploit opponents and give the most value.

The Toronto Maple Leafs fourth line should feature Nick Robertson for every game he’s healthy, until he forces them to play him higher.  His shot should get him in the lineup because it will be very useful on the power-play.

The Centre of this line should be Adam Brooks, a player who deserves a chance and who will likely be better than either Spezza or Simmonds if given one.  On the right side, Ondrej Kase.

This would be an incredible fourth line with a ton of talent and scoring ability. The Leafs should insert Spezza and Simmonds into the lineup every few games to spell out players, and make job competition fierce.   They should not be regulars.

Toronto Maple Leafs Blue-Line

There isn’t too much to say here.

Barring injuries, the Leafs will play Rielly with Brodie, Muzzin with Holl, and Dermott with Sandin.  The biggest question is who plays on the right side of that last pairing.

Personally, given the market for defensemen, I’d consider trading Holl and making a spot for Timothy Liljegren in the lineup.  Then again, injuries are a near certainty, and it’s always good to have a seventh NHL quality dman with upside on the bench to start the year.

In goal, also not much to say.  Jack Campbell will play slightly less than a normal starter due to his injury history, and the high quality of their backup.

Peter Mrazek should be one of the better backups in the league, and I fully expect Campbell to pick up where he left off last year.

Overall, this Leafs lineup is excellent, with a high chance of winning the President’s Trophy and the Atlantic Division.  (stats naturalstattrick.com).

But no one really cares about that because they just want to see playoff success.  This is the year it’s going to happen.  With Matthews and Marner firmly in their primes, but likely not having had their best year yet, this is the time when the Toronto Maple Leafs fully come into their own.

There is not a deeper or more talented roster in the NHL.  And that includes Tampa after their off-season exodus.