Toronto Maple Leafs Are the Best in the NHL at Managing Salary Cap

The Toronto Maple Leafs have one of the best salary cap situations in the NHL.

Though many latch on to the Toronto Maple Leafs recent injury/luck based playoff failures and equate them to the team’s unusual decision to allocate a large percentage of their available cap money to a small group of elite players, this is not in any way a problem.

Would it have been a problem if John Tavares didn’t get injured and the Leafs coasted to the Cup Finals?  Of course not. And  would any player not on the starting roster be able to adequately replace an injured Tavares, even if the Leafs had unlimited cap space? Obviously not.

Ergo, the Leafs do not have a salary cap problem. (info from capfriendly.com).

The Toronto Maple Leafs Are the Best NHL Team at Managing the Salary Cap

The Leafs were ranked 3rd in contract efficiency in a recent article by Dom Luszczyszyn of the Athletic. The article is paywalled, so I can’t link to it, but he used a complicated mathematical formula to determine which teams get the most value per dollar spent.  It would be well worth your time to access this article.

Because Colorado has an MVP candidate signed for pennies on the dollar, and because FLA has a Norris candidate signed dirt-cheap, these two teams lead the league.  But the Leafs, who don’t really have any players who bloomed after signing their deals,  are ranked an impressive third.

The Leafs are ranked so highly because they are the single NHL team that understands that mid-range players in the NHL are a black hole of wasted money.   The only mid-range deals the Leafs have handed out that were long-term were to Muzzin and Brodie, both of whom project to be stars who over perform their contracts for the majority of the term.   They bet $3.5 million that Kerfoot’s entire prime would be worth at least $3.5 annually, and despite that probably being true, that is their worst contract.

The Leafs have the best cap situation in the NHL because in the NHL It’s almost impossible to overpay star players, while mid-range players are more or less interchangeable.  I have been saying this for years, so it’s nice to see the most mathematically inclined mainstream NHL writer confirming my hypothesis.

The Leafs do not have a single bad contract on the books.  You can quibble over whether or not Matthews or Tavares or Marner deserves their full salaries, but they’d all get paid more on the open market, and all are expected to continue as star players.

Where the Leafs excel is in not paying average players excessive money.  Kerfott’s $3.5 could maybe be better spent, but he’s in his mid-twenties, easily tradable, and the deal expires next year.

That’s their worst contract.  Even Colorado (Johnsson, $6 million two more years) and Florida (Bobrovsky $10 million, forever) have bad deals on the books.  The Leafs don’t have any problems like that.  In fact, if the Leafs desired, Mikheyev and Kerfoot could easily be moved and give them nearly $6 million in cap space.

The Leafs have strong defense, strong goaltending, the best forwards, and do not lack for leadership, grit, character or experience.  They have assembled one of the best teams in the NHL, despite the fact that the Covid related flat-cap has prevented them from fully capitalizing on their ingenious plan.

The Pandemic really threw a wrench into the Leafs plans because honestly, imagine this team, but with the TV Deal, Expansion and Gambling adding $10 or more million to the cap.  It would be insane.

As it is, the team is in perfect position to try and win a Stanley Cup, mostly due to Kyle Dubas and his bold decision to spend his cap money differently – and more efficiently – than the rest of his competitors.

To fully understand how much the decision to pay only star players has helped the Leafs, consider that they  are heading into the next NHL season as one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup, could easily clear $6 million if they find a player they want, and they don’t even have any star players on entry-level deals, nor players who broke out after signing cheap deals.

If these things happen, the Toronto Maple Leafs will be unstoppable. As is, they’re in a better position, cap wise, than almost all of their competition.