The Toronto Maple Leafs May Be Most Powerful Underdogs Ever

The Toronto Maple Leafs General Manager Kyle Dubas and President Brendan Shanahan have bet their careers and reputations on the ability of their current core to get beyond the first round and live up to the hype.

Toronto Maple Leafs fans don’t seem to care.

Barring the existence of a silent majority, most fans are fed up and would like to see change just for the sake of it.  Personally, I admire the integrity of Shanahan and Dubas to stick to their guns despite the criticism.

To be clear, I do not universally advocate for a “stick to your guns” policy.  Most of the time, if you fail and everyone thinks you’re wrong, it’s because you are wrong.  But not always.

 Toronto Maple Leafs May be the Most Powerful Underdogs Ever

There is very clear evidence that the Toronto Maple Leafs are on the right track and therefore are correct to stay the course of their vision. To wit:

• They lost 2 x playoff series in which they had positive expected-goals ratings for 11 of 12 games, including 11 straight.
• Toughness, Leadership, Defense, Goaltending, Special Teams and Depth Scoring were all good to great, and the only thing that let the Leafs down was the inability of their superstars to score goals.  If your biggest strength is what lets you down, it may be the hardest way to lose, but it’s a best case scenario going forward.  The stars will score, and you can put their inability to do so over the last 12 playoff games down as a fluke.
• They finished ahead of Tampa in the regular season standings, and statistically were the better 5v5 team. (Tampa’s superior special teams made them better overall, but 5v5 is more repeatable).
• They had a goalie play almost half the schedule who posted a save percentage under .900 and a different combination of wins and losses in the last weekend of the regular season could have seen them win the President’s Trophy.
• Auston Matthews, 23, led the NHL in goals and WAR last year.
• Mitch Marner is 24 and scored at a 100 point pace, while adding elite defense. He is on track to be a top five NHL player.

Given this evidence, I believe the Toronto Maple Leafs are a top team that is correct to stick with the process.  Results can be a little crazy in the world of professional hockey, and the best team doesn’t always win.

Knowing this, it’s important to be able to recognize the difference between your team getting unlucky and your team not having what it takes to win.

The Leafs have come back from multi-goal deficits to tie the game at least three times in the last 12 playoff games, which has to be some kind of record.  The fact that they lost two of those games is so improbable, that it should at least render much of the criticism they face as ridiculous.

I think this ability to come from behind actually shows more about this teams grit, determination, leadership and character than the fact that they ultimately lost both series does.  This is a team with no weaknesses, other than the psychological scars that come with losing.  But is that even a negative? Doesn’t losing build character? Doesn’t it teach you how to win? Isn’t experience a key component of hockey culture’s views about players?

The Toronto Maple Leafs are about to enter a season as perceived underdogs, despite the fact that every predictive computer model is likely to put them near the top of the league.  I have no doubt that if you assembled this roster in another city, one without the baggage of the Leafs history, then you’d probably have a consensus favorite for team most likely to prevent a Tampa Threepeat.