Toronto Maple Leafs: Healthy Auston Matthews Should Terrify Rest of NHL

The Toronto Maple Leafs announced yesterday that Auston Matthews had wrist surgery to repair his damaged wrist.

This surgery should come as a surprise to exactly zero Toronto Maple Leafs fans, as Matthews spent most of last season battling the problem.

Auston Matthews is the best goal scorer in the NHL (and subsequently, the world).  He is already in the conversation with Mike Bossy, Alex Ovechkin and Wayne Gretzky as one of the best of all time.

And in his breakout season, the one where he flirted with a goal-per-game and ended up with 41 goals in 52 games, he did it while unable to shoot the puck like he normally does.  He did it during a season when the Leafs power-play inexplicably was among the worst in the league for over half the games.

This should terrify goalies and defenses around the league.

Toronto Maple Leafs and Auston Matthews

Last year, when the wrist injury was bothering Matthews the most, he went through a period where he scored “just” three goals in ten games, going scoreless in eight of them.

Before and after this stretch, he was noticeably better at shooting the puck.  In games where he looked to be at least mostly at full healthy, he scored 38 goals in 41 games, which is a 76 goal pace.

Without going into full exaggeration hype mode, it’s difficult to assess what Matthews did in 2021, and then try to guess what he could have done, or will do, when fully healthy.

At this point, a healthy Matthews for 82 games seems like a guaranteed 50 goals, and a likely 60 goals.  Is a goal per game out of the question?  I don’t think it is.

Do I think Matthews will actually score 82 goals? If I did, I wouldn’t say it out loud. What I do think is that if Steve Stamkos can score 60, Matthews should be able to score at least 65.

Hopefully the wrist heals nicely and Matthews can enter the season at full health for the first time since midway through last season.  His ability to score goals with a bum wrist is, frankly, incredible.

And, on top of that, he’s only just turning 24 this year.  He might get better. He will be fully healthy. The Toronto Maple Leafs have something to prove, and he’s likely to play with a chip on his shoulder.  Oh, and the Leafs power-play isn’t likely to stay near the bottom of the league.

Wayne Gretzky once scored 92 games in a league where goalies wore oversized shin pads and defense was more of a concept than an actual thing.  I’d be interested to see what Matthews could do in those conditions, but even if Gretzky’s record is out of reach, maybe 77 goals to break into the top five of all-time is possible.