Toronto Maple Leafs: Trading Rielly Not Quite as Dumb As Trading Marner

The Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t win in the playoffs.

When you don’t win, as our neighbors to the south can attest, some people completely abandon reality and just get really crazy.  The Toronto Maple Leafs equivalent of suggesting the most fair and accurate election in history was stolen, is suggesting that Mitch Marner should get traded.

Supposedly if you have a 100 point winger who also plays defense, you should be upset that some of the money spent on locking him up through his entire prime could have gone to a third pairing checking defenseman.  Or something?

I didn’t know Q was into hockey!

But a slightly less crazy idea is trading Morgan Rielly.  I don’t think the Leafs should trade Rielly, but there is at least an argument to make.  The idea of trading Marner is a non-starter. The history of trading 24 year old star players is fraught with fired GMs and ruined dreams.  This is the kind of nonsense you shouldn’t even dignify.

Trading Rielly, on the other hand, even if I don’t agree, at least has merit.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Morgan Rielly

The reason the Leafs should not trade Morgan Rielly is that a team is more than just the sum of it’s parts. Rielly is the glue that holds this team together, and he’s a career Maple Leaf on a team that has a brutal history of disposing of it’s legends unceremoniously.

Not only is Rielly incredibly underrated, but he’s also only scratched the surface of what he can do, having played but a single season with an NHL quality partner.  (Note: Rielly and Brodie are the best pairing the Leafs have ever had since I started watching in the late 80s).

Still, I’ll admit that my stance here is as much sentimental as it is logical.  Rielly is my son’s favorite player, and subsequently, he’s also mine.  I desperately hope the Leafs lock him up for another eight years.

Trading Rielly, as much as I hate the idea, has logic behind it.  Seth Jones just signed for $9 million, and Rielly is a better player.  Miro Heiskanen just signed for $8 million. Sure, he’s five years younger, but Rielly is still the better player today.

Bruns, OEL, Karlsson, Subban and Doughty all make over $9 mili.  Sure, they are yesterday’s stars and not really comparable, but I’m sure Rielly’s agent will point out that it’s been years since any of those guys was as good as Rielly is.

Bottom line: unless Rielly takes a massive home town discount – an no other member of his team has done so – he has to be traded.

Even though you’re highly unlikely to replace what Rielly does for the $5 million you’re paying him, you might be able to get a king’s ransom in a trade, since he has one of the most valuable contracts in the NHL right now.

Teams are almost paying double for worse players, so it’s a huge value.

The Leafs have one advantage in an attempt to sign him: They can offer a nine year commitment (this year, plus eight on the new deal).  Otherwise, Rielly enters his final year with the risk of being injured and never getting a contract extension at all.

Is that enough to get the cap hit in a reasonable range? Six would be something akin to what the Oilers got out of Ryan Nugent Hopkins, as far as hometown discounts go (yes, the Oilers actually did make one good move this summer).

If not, then they should try to trade him for a 3rd year ELC player who can step in and play on the top line.  But why would a contenting team (the only kind of team that would reasonably care about how cheap Rielly is this year) do something like that? It’s a bit of a Catch 22.

Best to just sign him, but I would not do so for anything over $7.