Toronto Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner Actually Really Good in the Playoffs

The Toronto Maple Leafs fans have a way of eating their own.

Case in point: Mitch Marner.  Drafted 4th overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs, Marner is a Toronto-born, impossible-not-to-like kid with a great attitude, who is already one of the best players to have ever worn the blue and white.

He’s also only 24 years old and on track to be one of the best players in the NHL.

And yet, he’s currently on the outs with the fan base after going an improbable 18 straight games without a playoff goal.  Despite the fact that it’s among the dumbest ideas in recorded history, there are actually people who think the team should trade him. (Seriously, you don’t trade 100 point players just as they hit their primes, especially when you’ve already locked them up for the entirety of the that prime).

The reason people are upset with Marner (temporarily) is that they are frustrated with the Leafs inability to advance in the playoffs, and a lot of the reason they didn’t is because Marner didn’t score.

But everyone should relax because by the time his career is over, Marner will be known as a playoff performer.  His stats already suggest that he is.

Toronto Maple Leafs and Mitch Marner

Marner took five puck-over-the-glass penalties in the Leafs last two playoff series, and hasn’t sored a goal in 18 straight playoff games.

That is hard to defend…..but I’m going to try.

First of all, the delay of game penalties are just a combination of nerves and bad luck, and frustration.  It almost certainly isn’t going to keep happening so much in the future, and it was probably extremely unlikely to have happened at all, so it isn’t something worth worrying about.

As for the lack of goals…….well I’d be concerned if the underlying numbers weren’t so great.  A Zero Percent shooting percentage over 18 games for a player of Marner’s caliber would be hard to achieve even if he was playing poorly.   Since the numbers say he was playing well, this is another thing where yes, it’s unfortunate that it happened, but it isn’t likely to ever happen again, so it isn’t worth worrying about.

What does matter are the underlying numbers.  They will almost always predict what happens in the future, so let’s check them out.

Marner has 25 points in 32 career playoff games.  That’s not too shabby, but let’s dig deeper.

In this year’s playoff’s, with Marner on the ice, the Toronto Maple Leafs got 54% of the shot-attempts, 60% of the shots, 58% of the scoring chances, 68% of the dangerous scoring chances, 56% expected goals, and 75% of the goals.

The Leafs outscored Montreal 3 to 1 with Marner on the ice.  In addition, he provided excellent penalty killing and solid defense.  Sure, the power-play was a dud, and we’d have liked to see more points, but if Matthews wasn’t also ice-cold, Marner probably ends the series with a minimum of seven points and is a point per game player.

For the past three season’s worth of playoffs, 19 games, with Marner on the ice, the Leafs had 54% of the shot-attempts, 55% of the shots, 56% of the scoring chances, 63% of the dangerous chances, and 62% expected goals.

Those are the numbers of a superstar. The fact that the Leafs were outscored in these 19 games by a score of 7 to 5 isn’t because of Marner.  It’s because while Marner was on the ice, the Leafs shot under 4%, which is something that would be unlucky for anyone, let alone someone as skilled as Marner.

Marner now has a reputation as someone who can’t perform in the playoffs.  This reputation is unearned and unfair.  Marner is in fact awesome in the playoffs, and next year, the Leafs should even get a little boost of good luck when his shooting percentage  regresses to the norm (progresses to the norm? Is that a saying? Anyways, you get the gist!).