Toronto Maple Leafs Are Losing Zach Hyman and That’s Fine
It appears as though the Toronto Maple Leafs will have a new winger on their top-line for 2021-2022.
The Zach Hyman sign and trade saga was officially put to rest recently by Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas, and so the Leafs will head into free agency on Wednesday with some significant holes to fill.
As per James Mirtle (of The Athletic), Hyman has an agreement in place with the Edmonton Oilers that will pay him between $5 and 6 million over a max-term deal. Both the term and the cap hit were deemed to be too steep for the Leafs (who are looking to not only fill Hyman’s void on the top-six left wing but also at the centre, goaltending, depth forward and depth defenseman positions as well) but a number of fans and pundits in Toronto disagree and feel that retaining the gritty, hard-working winger is a necessity. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).
To these people, I ask: Why?
Toronto Maple Leafs OK Without Hyman
Exhibit A: Goals
First off, let’s talk about Hyman’s most productive season for goal-scoring. In 2019-2020 he tallied 21 goals and 37 points in 51 games. Very nice numbers. But of those 21 goals, four were empty-netters and his shooting percentage that year was an absurdly high 19.8% .
Moreover, Hyman’s average time on ice was fourth-highest (for forwards) on the team at 19:06 (and just 27 seconds fewer than John Tavares), while nearly 60% of his even-strength ice time was spent playing only with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and/or Tavares.
This past year Hyman also scored at a good (albeit lower) pace, finishing with 15 goals in 43 games. His shooting percentage dropped (but was still a bit high, at 13%) and he managed two empty-net goals. Hyman’s ice-time; however, rose to 19:22, a full minute more than Tavares’ and third-highest on the team for forwards. And he still played with at least one of Matthews, Marner, Tavares and John Tavares roughly 60% of the time.
These two seasons seem to be aberrations, not norms. Even Hyman’s 21 goals in 71 games in 2018-2019 came on 14.6% shooting, included six empty-net goals and featured a whopping 80.76% of ice time strictly with John Tavares and Mitch Marner. His 15-goal, 40-point total in 82 games the preceding year on a 10.1 shooting % would be a more apt projection for those wanting to separate the mirage from reality a bit.
Those are numbers one can find fairly easily and somewhat cheaply in free agency, particularly if that free agent is given similar ice-time and line-combinations.
“Who cares? Won’t Hyman be able to easily re-create those so-called aberrations flanking the likes of McDavid and/or Draisaitl?
Yes, perhaps. There is a good chance Hyman puts up some impressive numbers in the short run but this is a seven-year commitment and Zach isn’t getting any younger…Which leads me to:
Exhibit B: Age
This June Hyman turned 29, which is an age where a lot of hockey players are reaching or have reached their peak and begin to leave their prime. And for players of Hyman’s ilk (which is to say, the limited skill, big heart, grinding and hustle types), slowing down just even just half a step can be detrimental to their success.
The body can also start to wear down from the years of grit and physical play (insert big-four longevity joke here) and the injuries won’t be able to heal or regenerate as fast. Let’s call this the ‘Clarkson Effect’. Here are some recent examples, starting with, you guessed it:
David Clarkson:
After breaking out at age 27 with a 30-goal season in New Jersey, Clarkson followed-up with a decent 15 goals in 48 games before signing a lucrative seven-year deal in free agency with…*heavy sigh…..Toronto. Clarkson, at the tender age of 29, scored just 5 goals in 60 games for the Buds that first year and managed only 12 goals total over the next two seasons (84 games), culminating in an exit from the NHL at age 31.
Darcy Tucker:
Tucker (unlike Clarkson) was a pretty consistent 20-goal scorer but also had a nice balance of grit, sandpaper and flat-out craziness to his game. His age 29 season was wiped out from the lockout but he did score a career-high 28 goals at age 30 and managed to pot 24 the following season, before dwindling down to 18, 8 and 10, respectively, the next three years. He looked tired at 32 years old, appeared done at 33 and was out of the league by the time he was 34.
Leo Komarov:
Hyman and Komarov, to me, were pretty similar players early on in their careers in Toronto but the latter just didn’t have the opportunity to play with the level of talent that the former played with. Nevertheless, Komarov, at 29, scored 19 goals in 67 games and then managed 14 goals in 82 games the year after that. In the four years since, Komarov’s highest output in a season has been 7 goals and he’s fresh off of a 1 goal in 33 game campaign in Long Island.
Wayne Simmonds:
From ages 25-28 Simmonds scored consistently around the 30-goal mark before dropping to 24 goals in 75 games at age 29. He only managed 17 goals in 79 games the next season, followed by an 8 and a 7-goal campaign. At least he’s cheap.
Milan Lucic:
This one is fitting, as this was another seven-year free agent acquisition by Edmonton. Lucic was only 28 when he signed in Edmonton and had a solid season (23 goals, 50 points) in his inaugural year with the Oilers. Then he turned 29 and things started to immediately Clarkson Effect. 10, 6, 8 and 10 would be Milan’s goal totals in each of the next four seasons.
But who cares about his age; wouldn’t it be worth it if the Oilers win a Cup or two along the way?
Yes, the last half of that sentence is a quote from the Edmonton Journal about Hyman’s potential contribution to the Oilers. Okay. I mean, sure, he possesses some of the qualities that people like to value in terms of post-season hockey but am I missing something here about Zach Hyman? When (and this is in response to the dissatisfied Leaf faithful crowd too) did Hyman become Claude Lemieux incarnate?
Exhibit 3: Playoffs
Zach Hyman has been an integral part of every Toronto Maple Leafs squad that has bowed out early in the playoffs the past five seasons. For some reason; however, only names such as Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander tend to be saddled with the brunt of the blame for these post-season failures. Here is Hyman’s production in the playoffs:
32 games played. 5 goals. 13 points.
He has also never scored more than a single goal in any of those five playoff series.
Moreover, these numbers are exacerbated by the fact that Hyman has also played almost exclusively on lines with the ‘big-four’ and has averaged 19:27 of ice time overall in the playoffs (a full two-minutes more than Nylander).
That kind of output, with those sweetheart line combinations and immense amount of ice time would normally be lambasted by the majority of a team’s fanbase. But oddly enough, Hyman not only escapes criticism, he has a label of ‘playoff performer’ bestowed upon him. Is that simply by virtue of him being a good forechecker?
The fact is I do think that Hyman is a good player who performed admirably in his years with Toronto and it would have been nice to keep him around. He always competed hard, finished his checks and was a master at negating icings. He has had a very nice career for a 5th-round pick out of the CCHL and, with a cap hit of only $2.25 million, has provided a ton of value these past years.
He has his flaws, as do many players on this Toronto Maple Leafs roster, but those flaws are much easier to mask when there isn’t much salary involved. The prospect of more than doubling his salary as he approaches an age where a player can decline at the drop of a hat for seven, or more, years; however, is not appealing nor good business in the flat-cap era. That just sounds like something the Leafs would almost immediately end up regretting.
Next. Breaking Down the Leafs 2021 Entry Draft. dark
Best of luck Edmonton, it’s not like I (or your last seven-year deal) didn’t warn you.