It appears as though the Toronto Maple Leafs will have a new winger on their top-line for 2021-2022.
The Zach Hyman sign and trade saga was officially put to rest recently by Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas, and so the Leafs will head into free agency on Wednesday with some significant holes to fill.
As per James Mirtle (of The Athletic), Hyman has an agreement in place with the Edmonton Oilers that will pay him between $5 and 6 million over a max-term deal. Both the term and the cap hit were deemed to be too steep for the Leafs (who are looking to not only fill Hyman’s void on the top-six left wing but also at the centre, goaltending, depth forward and depth defenseman positions as well) but a number of fans and pundits in Toronto disagree and feel that retaining the gritty, hard-working winger is a necessity. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).
To these people, I ask: Why?
Toronto Maple Leafs OK Without Hyman
Exhibit A: Goals
First off, let’s talk about Hyman’s most productive season for goal-scoring. In 2019-2020 he tallied 21 goals and 37 points in 51 games. Very nice numbers. But of those 21 goals, four were empty-netters and his shooting percentage that year was an absurdly high 19.8% .
Moreover, Hyman’s average time on ice was fourth-highest (for forwards) on the team at 19:06 (and just 27 seconds fewer than John Tavares), while nearly 60% of his even-strength ice time was spent playing only with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and/or Tavares.
This past year Hyman also scored at a good (albeit lower) pace, finishing with 15 goals in 43 games. His shooting percentage dropped (but was still a bit high, at 13%) and he managed two empty-net goals. Hyman’s ice-time; however, rose to 19:22, a full minute more than Tavares’ and third-highest on the team for forwards. And he still played with at least one of Matthews, Marner, Tavares and John Tavares roughly 60% of the time.
These two seasons seem to be aberrations, not norms. Even Hyman’s 21 goals in 71 games in 2018-2019 came on 14.6% shooting, included six empty-net goals and featured a whopping 80.76% of ice time strictly with John Tavares and Mitch Marner. His 15-goal, 40-point total in 82 games the preceding year on a 10.1 shooting % would be a more apt projection for those wanting to separate the mirage from reality a bit.
Those are numbers one can find fairly easily and somewhat cheaply in free agency, particularly if that free agent is given similar ice-time and line-combinations.
“Who cares? Won’t Hyman be able to easily re-create those so-called aberrations flanking the likes of McDavid and/or Draisaitl?
Yes, perhaps. There is a good chance Hyman puts up some impressive numbers in the short run but this is a seven-year commitment and Zach isn’t getting any younger…Which leads me to: