Trying to Make Sense of the Toronto Maple Leafs Expansion Strategy

The Toronto Maple Leafs, along with the rest of the NHL (except Las Vegas) had to submit their protection lists for the upcoming Expansion Draft by yesterday afternoon.

Preceding the submission of the list, the Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Jared McCann from the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for prospect Filip Hallander and a 2023 7th round pick.

Today, the Kraken released the lists of all 30 teams.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have gone with the four forwards and four defenseman approach, protecting Justin Holl and exposing Alex Kerfoot, Travis Dermott and Jared McCann.

It is still unknown if the Leafs have a deal in place with the Kraken about which player they will take.  The Kraken hired the Leafs assistant coach Dave Hakstol to be their head coach, and perhaps that will play into it.

If not, the Leafs choices here leave a lot to be desired.

Toronto Maple Leafs and the Expansion Draft

Not that we are always right, but there seemed to be a consensus among the people who thought the Senators hiring Pierre McGuire was idiotic that the Leafs should protect Dermott and expose Holl.

Holl is right handed and huge, and he plays top four minutes, but he’s also likely propped up by Jake Muzzin and is five years older than Dermott.  In addition, with Rasmus Sandin almost sure to be playing top-four minutes, the need for Holl seems low.

I thought this would lead to a pre-draft  trade of Holl, but perhaps the move is to protect him, and then when every team is down a 4th blue-liner capitalize in a suddenly hot market for this type of player.  The same logic would work for Alex Kerfoot.

Or maybe the Toronto Maple Leafs just love Justin Holl.  This wouldn’t be unreasonable, as he has put up absolutely great numbers the last two seasons.  Again, the same logic works here for Kerfoot. He’s a solid player who was just amazing in the playoffs.

The Leafs may have a deal worked out ahead of time.  Maybe Seattle will select someone the Leafs don’t care about as part of the deal to hire Hakstol.  The Leafs paid real assets for Lou Lamoriello once upon a time, so this wouldn’t be outlandish. Maybe they will just straight up pay them not to select anyone they like.

Or maybe that is why they got Jared McCann.  This would be mean, because I’m actually pretty excited about getting McCann, but if all it costs you is Hallander and a seventh to get through the expansion draft unscathed, that isn’t the worst thing.

Finally, maybe their plan was just to let Seattle do whatever they want.  Paying the Golden Knights to take a specific player really didn’t work out for anyone but the Golden Knights, so the Leafs could perhaps just put the ball in play and see what happens.

Still, if the Toronto Maple Leafs end up losing Travis Dermott, I might have to write my harshest review yet – Seven Thumbs Up!   Honestly though, I don’t think that will happen.  We’ll just have to wait and see.