Every Single Free-Agent Option for the Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to free-agency to help improve their roster for next season.

While the Stanley Cup Final is underway and the Tampa Bay Lightning are leading the series 2-0 as it shifts back to Montreal for Game 3 Friday night, it’s always pertinent to continue to dissect the playoff anomaly and dream-dashing reality that is the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Come July 28, the Leafs will be able to start shopping in free agency and the quality of product (as well as the dearth of capital to spend) is quite substantial.

Here is a look at Toronto’s Cap situation as it currently stands, followed by a breakdown of notable acquisitions in the 2021 NHL free agent class, by position, with a panache of armchair GM sprinkled on the side (Stats from hockey-reference.com, Cap info from capfriendly.com).

PROJECTED CAP HIT

$70,644,783 (out of 81,500,000)

PROJECTED CAP SPACE

$10,855,217

RETAINED SALARY

$1,200,000 (Phil Kessel, final year, included in projected cap hit)

Excluding Travis Dermott, the lone RFA on the current roster, Toronto has 16 of 23 roster spots locked up with approximately 10.85 million left to spend. That’s not a lot of capital for seven players, which is particularly frustrating considering some of the names on the impending free agent market.

One of Kerfoot or Dermott is most likely obtained by Seattle in the expansion draft. If it’s the former then that’s an extra 3.5 million of cap space. The latter cost only 863K last year and is younger with a higher ceiling so I’d expect him to be Toronto’s lone claimed player (Unless Justin Holl is moved prior to the July 21 expansion draft, allowing Dermott to potentially be protected). Expect that 10.85 million figure with seven spots remaining to be on point, though, come free agency.

On to the 2021 NHL free agent class:

Alex Ovechkin

36 years old. 24 goals, 42 points in 45 games. Cap hit: 9.54 million.

This would be the cream of the crop acquisition. A big, physical winger with playoff experience and a cup ring who also happens to be the 6th leading goal scorer of all-time in the NHL.

He has scored 790 goals in just under 1200 games and has a Calder, Art Ross, Conn Smythe, three Ted Lindsay, three Hart, and nine Maurice Richard trophies, as well as a Stanley Cup Championship (all stats from hockey-reference.com), to his name. He’d look mighty fine on that vacant wing beside Matthews and Marner but unless he is willing to sign for 5 million or less, that dream is as likely as an obstruction interference call in the NHL playoffs.

Taylor Hall

29 years old. 10 goals, 33 points in 53 games. Cap hit: 8.00 million

Forget those paltry Buffalo Sabres numbers- his line in Boston (8 goals, 14 points in 16 games) is the real deal. Hall has endured some seriously low shooting percentage stats the last number of years (save for his lone Hart year in NJ) and, excluding that year and his brief stint in Boston, hasn’t had a shooting percentage in the double-digits since 2014. Hall would thrive in Toronto but, alas, even his discounted one-year deal in Buffalo is far too rich for Toronto’s blood.

Brandon Saad

28 years old. 15 goals, 24 points in 44 games. Cap hit: 6 million

I’m not sure what the market is going to look like for Saad but he has quietly put up a very nice career. Saad has scored in the double-digits in every single season he has played (back to 2012-2013) and sports a career CF% of 55.2. In 632 career games Saad has 184 goals and 371 points, despite averaging under 17 minutes per game. He also stands 6’1, 206lb, so there’s that too. He may be looking at something near his current salary, which eliminates Toronto from the bidding, but if he comes in under Hyman’s asking price and can fit in the 5 million or less category Toronto is probably looking at, then he should be scooped up.

Gabriel Landeskog

28 years old. 20 goals, 52 points in 54 games. Cap hit: 5.57 million

Landeskog has to be included because he is a premier player in the NHL who can score, hit, play defense, win faceoffs and is still in the prime of his career. But he isn’t leaving Colorado and is going to get a boatload of money from them this year. With him, Makar and Grubauer needing new deals this year; however, Colorado might soon find themselves in a Toronto Maple Leafs Cap situation.

Jaden Schwartz

29 years old. 8 goals, 21 points in 40 games. Cap hit: 5.35 million

Like Saad, Schwartz has quietly put together a solid, under the radar career. A four-time 20-goal scorer, Schwartz has 154 goals and 385 points in 560 games. His career 56.7 CF% is partly inflated by his generous offensive-zone starts (61%) but that is still a pretty impressive figure and last year, with only 52% offensive-zone starts, he managed a CF% of nearly 52. He’s coming off a down statistical season so he may be able to come in under 5 million.

Other notable left wing free agents:

Nick Foligno– Things didn’t end well in Toronto and, at 33 years old, following a 20-point season, he is going to command significantly less than his 5.5 million cap hit. I see a fit on a short-term, 2 million or less style deal. Otherwise, Folig-NO.

Mike Hoffman– Forced to sign a one-year, 4 million deal with St. Louis last year, Hoffman put up 17 goals and 36 points in 52 games. Prior to last year, he never scored less than 22 and scored as many as 36 in a season. An interesting signing if the market goes cold for him again this year.

Brock McGinn– A former 2nd-rounder from Carolina, McGinn has been primarily used in a defensive role in his career (44% OZS) and has only averaged 13:38 of ice time. Still, McGinn has two double-digit goal seasons under his belt, can throw the body around and, at 27, still is entering his prime. A longer-term deal around his current cap hit (2.1 million) might be interesting.

Corey Perry

Aside from (most likely) unintentionally taking out Tavares this postseason, Perry has put up 9 points in 17 Montreal playoff games and would give the Toronto Maple Leafs a little more bottom-six toughness and experience. And he’s still putting up strong possession numbers. A Spezza-esque deal would be great.

Alex Chiasson

6’3, 208lb and only a few years removed from a 22-goal season. He’s 31 and made 2.15 million last year. He could potentially be a good, cheap signing that has the possibility to anchor the 3rd line. A good Hyman replacement, perhaps, if a few other FA’s become priced out of Toronto’s range.

Joel Armia

Another strong bottom-six player with size and a bit of a scoring touch, Armia is 29 and could also help the Toronto Maple Leafs 3rd line. He has hit double-digits in goals four times and stands 6’4, 210lb., so he brings a little more size to the bottom-six. An increase on his 2.6 million cap hit would probably take Toronto out of the running; however.

Joshua Ho-Sang

Ho-Sang was an Islanders first-round pick back in 2014 but he hasn’t had any extended playing time in the NHL and only last had a sniff of the big leagues in the 2018-2019 season. A UFA at only 25 years old, Ho-Sang might be an interesting low-risk, high-reward signing.

Blake Coleman

29 years old. 14 goals, 31 points in 55 games. Cap hit: 1.8 million

Coleman has played centre, shoot left and plays right wing. He could potentially fit anywhere in the Leafs lineup and might be the best cost-replacement for Hyman, should Zach sign elsewhere. Coleman has scored 20-goals three times and is a relentless hitter and forechecker. Expect Toronto to be in on him up into the 4 million range.

Paul Stastny

35 years old. 13 goals, 29 points in 56 games. Cap hit: 6.5 million

Elite on the draw (54% career), Stastny would fit perfectly in Toronto, where there is a big drop-off at the centre position after John Tavares. Stastny has never had a season where he didn’t hit or was on pace for double-digits in goals and has put up 755 points in 1001 games played as well as 69 points in 103 playoff games. A short-term deal at a reduced price would be nice, particularly if Kerfoot (who is best on the wing) is still in Toronto next year.

David Krejci 

35 years old. 8 goals, 44 points in 51 games. Cap hit: 7.25 million

Similar to Stastny, Krejci is a seasoned veteran who has routinely produced in every single season. Krejci has been in a whopping 156 playoff games scoring an impressive 121 points and is still a strong possession player. He was also 54.2% in the faceoff circle last season. Another prototypical centre that would look great on the 3rd line, Krejci on a short-term deal at half (or less) of his current cap hit would be appealing.

Mikael Granlund

29 years old. 13 goals, 27 points in 51 games. Cap hit: 3.75 million

Granlund was a common name heard at the trade deadline in connection with the Toronto Maple Leafs so I’d expect Dubas to make a push here. He’s decent on faceoffs, a competent point producer and has a career 53 CF%. His numbers dropped in Nashville but in Minnesota he routinely hit or was near the 60 point mark. An interesting addition but I wouldn’t go north of 4 million for him.

Alexander Wennberg

27 years old. 17 goals, 29 points in 56 games. Cap hit: 2.25 million

Wennberg, to me, seems sort of like a poor man’s Mikael Granlund. He’s slightly worse in the goal, point and faceoff departments but he has seen less playing time and is a full two years younger. He’d be a decent, cheaper option who may have a bit of potential still left in his game.

Phillip Danault

He’s a guy I think the Toronto Maple Leafs should really look at, as I posted in an article a little while back. You can read my analysis of him here.

Other decent, low-risk centre options:

Derek Stepan

He’ll be taking a good chunk of change less in his next contract but he has scored at a 30+ point pace and never had anything less than double-digits in goals his entire career, save for the 20 games he played in Ottawa in 2020-2021.

Nick Bjugstad

6’6, a former first rounder and he’s not Frederik Gauthier so he has a few things going for him. Bjugstad scored at or around the 20-goal mark more than a few times in his career, plays a prime position and can throw the body around a bit.

Nick Bonino

Bonino was used strictly in defensive situations in both Nashville and Minnesota last year (low-mid 30% OZS) which has negatively affected his advanced metrics but he still owns an 82-game average 16 goals and 37 points with a faceoff percentage just around 50%.

Phillip Grubauer 

29 years old. 1.95 GAA. .922 Sv%. Cap hit: 3.33 million

It’s highly unlikely Colorado, like Landeskog, lets Grubauer test the free agency market. In three years with the Avalanche Grubauer has a .918 save %, 2.38 GAA and 12 shutouts while the team has gone 66-30-10. Expect that cap hit to double.

Linus Ullmark

28 years old. 2.63 GAA. .917 Sv%. Cap hit: 2.6 million

Despite playing for some pretty disappointing Buffalo teams, Ullmark has put up some impressive numbers. He owns a career record of 50-47-13 with the Sabres with a 2.78 GAA and .912 Sv%. He turns 28 at the end of July and would be a nice addition to a team that doesn’t have the capacity to lose 18 games in a row in a single season. If Ullmark is comfortable sharing net duties, he’d be a great tandem with Campbell that would still provide good value even with a modest pay increase.

Petr Mrazek

29 years old. 2.06 GAA. .923 Sv%. Cap hit: 3.125 million.

As nice as those numbers look for Mrazek, they are only based on 12 games played this past season. In his career in Carolina (92 games) Mrazek is sitting at 2.48 and .911 with 10 shutouts. Prior to that he played in Detroit for 6 years compiling a record of 72-58-20 and 2.60 and .912 (13 SO’s). He’s been quite steady in his career and would be a quality goaltending partner for Campbell.

Tukka Rask

34 years old. 2.28 GAA. .913 Sv%. Cap hit: 7 million

It would be a fitting tribute to have Rask finally come home to the city that drafted him and ultimately lead the Toronto Maple Leafs further than they have gone in nearly 20 years, which would only have to be….checks notes… ah yes, the 2nd round. The question of whether Rask is looking to take less money and settle into less of a role remains, though. Rask is only one year removed from a 2nd place Vezina finish where he put up 26-8-6, 2.12, .929, 5 SO numbers. He’s got a lot of game left.

Antti Raanta

32 years old. 3.36 GAA. .906 Sv%. Cap hit: 4.25 million

2020-2021 was marred by injuries and Raanta only ended up playing in 12 games for the Coyotes, to somewhat disappointing results. His four years in Arizona; however, were anything but disappointing. He sports a 2.57 GAA and .921 Sv% with 5 SO in 101 starts and may be in line for a cheaper deal based on his age and injury history. Medium-risk but high-reward.

Jaroslav Halak

Halak has settled into a spot starting role as he has seen his starting numbers fall from 37 to 29 to 17 games during his three-year tenure in Boston. He still had a .918 Sv% and 10 shutouts in that span with a GSAA of 22. He’s 36 and just earned 2.25 million this past season so he could be a very good short-term, relatively cheap addition.

Jonathan Bernier

Bernier wasn’t exactly a fan favorite in Toronto but he was better here than he gets credit for and has put together a serviceable career with plenty of consistent starts. 2.81 and .915 in Toronto, Bernier has put up similar numbers (3.02, .908) on terrible Detroit squads the last three seasons. At 33 and projected to earn less than his 3 million cap hit, he’d be a cheap, quality backup/occasional starter.

Pekka Rinne

This one is a bit of a stretch as Rinne is set to celebrate his 39th birthday in November, but Pekka isn’t that far removed from his elite level of play and had a nice bounce-back in 2020-2021 (2.84, .907, 2SO) after a horrible 2019-2020. Jack Campbell can handle the brunt of the workload so Rinne would get plenty of rest and could provide valuable experience to his younger counterpart. He’d likely be a cheap sign that could ease the Cap complications too.

Toronto Maple Leafs Defense Options

With Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin, Holl, Sandin and Liljegren all locked in and/or expansion draft- protected for 2021-2022, it is unlikely that Toronto will make a play for any defenseman of consequence.

There are some intriguing names on the free agent market; namely:

Dougie Hamilton, Alexander Edler,  David Savard,  Adam Larsson , Alec Martinez , Brandon Montour , Tyson Barrie(!)

But I wouldn’t expect any of these guys to come to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs unless some significant Cap commitments are jettisoned first.

Look for any one of the following names to be signed for depth or, if the market allows, at a bargain rate:

Sami Vatanen , Ben Hutton ,Zach Bogosian ,Mikko Lehtonen ,Derek Forbort

Toronto maple Leafs Predictions

With the Cap situation as dire as it is in Toronto, I don’t see them making any type of significant splash in the free agent market.

The expansion draft will have some bearing on what moves Dubas makes based on whether Dermott or Kerfoot (or Engvall) is selected by Seattle. I predict it is Dermott that is taken and that Dubas will be targeting Coleman, Granlund, Wennberg and Ryan, ending up with at least two of those names. One of Bogosian or Hutton is likely to be retained as a depth piece and either Halak or Bernier will fill out the goaltending situation.

My preference would be to target Bjugstad or Bonino for the 3rd line centre role and move Kerfoot to the wing. If Kerfoot is picked up in the expansion draft, my immediate focus shifts to Danault. I’d love to see Stastny or Krejci come here but I feel they will be priced out. McGinn would be a nice target for the bottom-six and if possible I’d pick up Ryan or Perry on a one-year cheap deal. I’d also be open to bringing Galchenyuk back on a multi-year deal if it keeps his price down.

Vatanen is an intriguing name but I imagine he will sign somewhere for a decent increase on his 2 million. I’d retain Bogosian and/or Hutton, who are valuable 6/depth defensemen. I’d love to go after Mrazek or Ullmark but I just don’t see how the numbers would work (Same for Coleman). I’d try to pick up Halak for a cheap one or two-year deal and settle for Rinne on a one-year commitment.

I’d really love to find a way to get Blake Coleman in there but this is the reality with Toronto’s difficult Cap situation. Keefe needs to create battles for roster spots and dial in his young stars a bit and he has some decent options there.

But another sub-par, goal-less post season from his leading ice-time getter in Marner might seal both of their fates.