If You Think the Maple Leafs Should Trade Rielly, You’re Wrong
After another disappointing season, Toronto Maple Leafs fans are acting like Leafs fans
I get it; falling as early as the Toronto Maple Leafs did is frustrating. It makes this into arguably the most disappointing season in recent history. As usual, some fans are calling for extreme measures.
I am frustrated too, but general manager Kyle Dubas needs to put the team in the best position to succeed.
With that in mind, no, trading defenseman Morgan Rielly will not help the Leafs this season, next season, or down the road.
Back to the not so “good ole days”
It’s been a long time since the Toronto Maple Leafs had at least a respected group of defensemen. For me, you have to go back to the ’03-’04 season when Bryan McCabe put up 53 points, and Thomas Kaberle had a down year despite putting up 31 points.
This offseason, Dubas added Zach Bogosian and T.J. Brodie. The two additions were supposed to add more of a defensive-minded presence and some size. Brodie played on the top pairing while Bogosian was a third-paring defenseman.
In the middle of the ’18-’19 season, Dubas made a trade to acquire Jake Muzzin. Since then, he has been a reliable defensive player with a touch of offense in the second pairing.
It took Justin Holl quite a while to become the reliable player he is today. His first season as a starter came last year when he was 28-years-old. Now, he is a top penalty-killer and the second part of the shut-down line with Muzzin.
In the second round of the 2015 NHL Draft, Toronto selected a key defenseman in Travis Dermott. While some incorrectly consider him to be inconsistent, he is a solid bottom-pairing defenseman who puts up some of the best 3rd pairing numbers in the NHL.
In his back pocket, Dubas has two high-potential defensemen. They are Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren. Both got drafted in the first round in back-to-back years. Despite Liljegren joining Toronto first, Sandin earned more NHL games and continues to receive more praise.
Sandin saw time on the power play and looked comfortable in that slot. Unfortunately, he had only one point with the man advantage in 14 regular and postseason games this season. Losing Morgan Rielly would throw the Toronto Maple Leafs back into the longtime struggle of lacking defensemen. While he has his ups and downs, he remains a top-pairing defenseman in the NHL.
His defensive capabilities are underrated, and his offensive instincts remain crucial to the team. He had 30+ points in four of his last six seasons, headlined by his 72-point season back in ’18-’19. It’s not easy to find a defenseman like that.
Debunking the salary cap issues
When managing a team in a league that utilizes a salary cap, you need to find a way to squeeze in the best talents. That means teams may have to give up top talent to remain under the cap.
Considering the Toronto Maple Leafs have $40.5 million invested in four players, they are a team that has little wiggle room. That may force one of their many stars to put on a different sweater, or will it?
Yes, Morgan Rielly’s six-year contract paying him $5 million per season expires next year. Luckily, the salary cap should not be as much of an issue as it seems.
This offseason Kyle Dubas has only $11.8 million in cap space with impact players still to sign. That number increases to $24.9 million next offseason, and that’s if the salary cap remains the same.
With over $20 million to work with, I’m sure Dubas will be able to find a way to keep someone as valuable as Rielly on the team. That’s because the team can’t afford to lose him. It won’t be easy, but it needs to happen.
There are a couple of other notable names with expiring contracts alongside Rielly. Among them is the young defensive duo of Liljegren and Sandin, who will become restricted free agents. Add to that depth forwards in Pierre Engvall and Ilya Mikheyev and starting goaltender Jack Campbell.
You can allocate $11 million to the trio, and even then, that sounds like a lot. That leaves at least $13.9 million and the mathematical wonders of Dubas to fit under the cap.
Sandin and Liljegren don’t have enough NHL experience to cash in yet, so don’t expect them to make too much of a dent. They can combine for $7 million on short-term contracts. That leaves $6.9 million in cap space.
It’s still likely Toronto will be tight against the cap, but there is always a way to make things work. That may be by moving pieces around or by utilizing the long-term injured reserve as they did this season.
Thankfully, the Leafs have bargain contracts such as Justin Holl at $2 million and William Nylander at $6.96 million. They are crucial to maximizing the talent on the team. Those underpaid players leave room for the Leafs to retain players such as Rielly.
If Morgan Rielly leaves, then what?
While losing the defenseman will leave a large hole on the team, there is a possibility it happens. What if Dubas does opt to either trade him or let him walk away in free agency?
First, the Maple Leafs would need to find who can fill in the spot at LD1. There are only two options that are in the organization. They are either Muzzin or Sandin.
Many expect the 21-year-old Swede to become a top-pairing defenseman one day. It then becomes the question; will he be ready to take on that responsibility for the ’22-’23 season?
He has had success at every level he played. From putting up almost one point per game in the OHL to doing the same in the AHL, there is a lot to be excited about regarding Rasmus Sandin.
In his young NHL career, he has 37 regular-season and five playoff games to his name. That’s not enough experience for someone to play a top-pairing role. There is this upcoming season for Sandin to prove his worth as an everyday contributor, and that may tell the tale.
Muzzin has been a solid player for Toronto since his arrival. Not only is he heavily relied upon on the penalty kill, but he also likes to crush the opponent and has the hockey sense to contribute offensively.
Since the ’14-’15 season, the Woodstock native has averaged 39 points per 82 games. That’s more than enough offense for a defenseman to have an impact. No, he is not as flashy as other players, but the stats show he will make a difference.
Muzzin is up there as one of the more underrated two-way defensemen in the NHL. Then again, he has been relieved he was never the top defenseman on his team. On his former team, the Los Angeles Kings, Norris winner Drew Doughty hogged all the attention.
With Sandin as a future replacement, and Muzzin playing quietly spectacularly, the Leafs should be able to handle losing Rielly, right? Well, for the same reason Hall of Famer Mats Sundin couldn’t bring a cup home, no.
Teams need multiple defensemen that impact the game. Finding another player like Morgan Rielly is a lot harder than it may seem. I mean, it took the Leafs pretty much two decades to ice an intimidating team after all.
Not many defensemen can rack up 70+ points in one season, but the Leafs assistant captain did. His speed, offensive instincts, and improving defensive play are all the reasons you can’t replace him.
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Yes, the cap space will be tight if the Toronto Maple Leafs retain him, but Kyle Dubas understands the talent Morgan Rielly is. The GM can and should keep the 27-year-old because they can at the end of the day, and it will cost too many picks to find another player like him.