Toronto Maple Leafs: The One Lesson Everyone Refuses to Learn

The Toronto Maple did lose to Montreal, and it was disappointing.

In the wake of the Toronto Maple Leafs loss, we have seen something really unusual happen.  Oh, of course there is the usual hand-wringing, the should-a-dones, the anger, the anger at anyone being rational, and of course, the calls for everyone to be fired.

Unless you are new to sports, you understand that whenever a team upsets it’s fanbase, the internet will become filled with emotional nonsense.  It’s no big deal.  But what is unusual about the Leafs is that the most vocal portion of their fansbase hates the team and are using the loss as a springboard for all their gripes about how the Leafs have been run since they decided to try to run an NHL team in a progressive way.  (i.e using data and not reputation to make decisions and a plan, then sticking with that plan in the face of undesired, short-term results).

Specifically, they love the idea of a Lou Lamoriell/Mike Babcock team that grinds and fights and replaces Mitch Marner with Leo Komorov.  They hate Kyle Dubas, his focus on skill at the expense of body-checking, and his studs and duds cap philosophy. They hate William Nylander, math, and even though the Leafs failed for five decades with the same ideas, have absolutely no patience for what the team is doing now (which isn’t even really revolutionary outside of the confines of the uber-conservative world of professional hockey).

It is really something to see fans turn on their team the second something goes wrong, almost as if they were waiting patiently for the first signs of trouble.  I don’t think I’ve ever witnessed anything quite like it before.

 The Situation

It was amusing watching these fans twist themselves into knots trying to cheer for the team as William Nylander turned into one of the NHL’s best players and the Leafs made out like Mike Tyson in the 80s against the Canadian Division.

But then it all came crashing down when the Montreal Canadiens stormed back from a 3-1 lead. Suddenly, the outdated fans who make lame puns about Kyle Dubas’ name were off life support and back in full outrage mode, while dominating conversation around the team.

Fire everyone. Give me Lou Lamoriello. No I don’t care about luck, injuries or probability.  Trade Mitch Marner for any three guys whose salary adds up to his.  No I don’t remember what happened with Dion Phaneuf, get me Seth Jones.

And on and on. Usually with a few insults strewn in for good measure.

But in the wake of the Leafs loss, cooler heads must prevail. Kyle Dubas is still the NHL’s brightest and best general manager. Despite using almost half their salary cap on four players, the Toronto Maple Leafs still signed the 2nd best UFA last summer, competed for the President’s Trophy until the final game of the season, and entered the playoffs with an 80% win probability in the first round.

Most NHL series are a coin-flip. A 60/40 probability split means one team is pretty heavily favored when you consider the parity of the league.  80% is almost unheard of, and it was one of the biggest gaps in recent memory.  But it still means that even without the Tavares injury and the Matthews/Marner slump, the Leafs would still lose one in five times.   That is simply the reality of the NHL.

So before big chances are made, or demanded, there is one thing everyone must keep in mind: shooting percentage.

Specifically, the individual shooting-percentage of two players.  Shooting Percentage. It’s the one lesson everyone refuses to learn.  In the NHL, a player has no control over his shooting percentage.  If a normally high scoring player starts to slump, and if his peripheral numbers remain constant, then he’s just having a bad luck run and there is nothing you can do but wait it out.

One Lesson all Toronto Maple Leafs Fans Should Learn

Mitch Marner shot 0% over seven games.  He famously has zero goals in his last 18 playoff games, which is something he shouldn’t be able to do if he tried not to score on purpose.  Even if Marner played badly (the advanced stats say the opposite) he should still have scored at least one goal, by accident over the last two playoff series.

If Marner scores, even once, the Toronto Maple Leafs beat Columbus.  Same thing against Montreal.

Auston Matthews shot 2.86% against Montreal.  He scored one goal on 35 shots, when normally he would score about four or five.  (naturalstattrick.com).

Neither Marner or Matthews was “shutdown” by good defense.  Good defense would mean their puck-possession and scoring chance numbers went down.  They didn’t.

Remember when William Nylander signed his contract then played a whole year with a low shooting percentage and everyone thought he was garbage?  But some people (mostly drowned out by the noise) kept pointing out how his advanced stats were good and suggested that it was just bad luck? Everyone laughed, but now Nylander is one of the NHL’s best players, just as was easily predictable if you looked at his advanced stats and not the results from a small sample size. Over time, a player’s shooting career shooting percentage will always be a better indicator of his ability to score than his shooting percentage over a small number of games.

It is entirely normal that great players go into slumps.  It sucks when the timing forces you out of the playoffs against a team that only beats you four times in regulation out of seventeen tries, but it happens.

This is what happened with Marner and Matthews in the playoffs.  Normally, Marner scores on 10% of his shots (over almost 400 NHL gamers) while Matthews scores on about 15% of his.  Together they scored on about 1.5% of their shots in this year’s playoffs. Partly because of Carey Price, partly because of bad luck, and maybe partly because of Matthews’ lingering wrist injury (I don’t know whether or not it affected him).   Either way, nothing that prevented the Leafs from advancing was due to poor management or bad play, a lack of desire or a refusal to acknowledge the existence of “playoff hockey.”  It wasn’t due to the salary cap, leadership or even injuries. It was due to a random stretch of bad shooting luck. That’s it.

The Toronto Maple Leafs – even with the flat cap, even with Tavares’ injury – should easily have beaten Montreal.  Thankfully their management team recognizes this, even if most of the fans and writers covering the team don’t.

Learn the lesson of shooting percentage.  Your cardiologist will thankyou.