Kyle Dubas Will Land a Top UFA in the 2021 NHL Offseason

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a boatload of expiring contracts and many questions after another first round loss.

As a result, the Toronto Maple Leafs will be looking for any ways in which they can improve their club, including signing some UFAs.

Unrestricted Free Agency (UFA) is still over a month away, but from the distance you can see Kyle Dubas already coursing and calculating his line of approach to the diving board, scheming the best course of action for opening day of free-agency:

• July 1, 2018: Signed UFA John Tavares to $11 M @ 7 years
• July 1, 2019: Traded Nazem Kadri and Calle Rosen for Tyson Barrie and Alexander Kerfoot
• Oct 9, 2020: Signed UFA T.J. Brodie to $5 M @ 4 years
• July 28, 2021: ?

Barring any trades, who is Dubas targeting this off-season? First, let’s take a look at the current team roster and salary cap situation.

Current Toronto Maple Leafs Roster

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a good portion of the team locked up for next season, but every position needs more.

Nick Robertson and Rasmus Sandin are both primed to play. Jason Spezza is poised to return. At least one of Simmonds, Galchenyuk, and Thornton seems likely. Engvall and Brooks are in line to see full-time action.

Now, for what the Leafs don’t have….

1. A 1 A/B tandem with Jack Campbell – might be the simplest to rectify at a low cost; but, that’s not the splash we’re looking for.
2. A quality third-line center to move up in the lineup – this type of player would likely need to be addressed via trade as it’s hard to envision any 2021 UFA fitting this mold coming to the Leafs.
3. A fourth top-4 defenseman

The Leafs have approximately $12.5 in spending, and it could be a little less or much more, depending on two burning questions:

1. Who to protect and expose at the NHL Expansion Draft on July 21; many indicators point to Kerfoot and his $3.5 M.
2. Whether to re-sign Zach Hyman; who is looking for a raise and likely to land anywhere between $4-5 M.

Point is, Dubas has more than enough to play with to make a big splash in free-agency.

UFA Splash-type Defensemen    

Adam Larsson

Larsson is a right handed defenseman who is 28 years old.  The Oilers defenseman currently has a cap hit of $4,166,666.

Besides Adam Larsson on the Hockey News Top 30 2021 UFA list, you won’t find another defenseman like him this year available for for around $4 M, this is a safe-bet for a solid splash.

The Leafs defense corps would finally reach an acceptable standard of balance, at least on paper.

Larsson is a two-way defenseman akin to Jake Muzzin. He has yet to put up numbers or make a big impact like Muzzin, but his potential is certainly there being drafted 4th overall in 2011.

Dougie Hamilton

The 27 year old right-handed superstar has a  cap hit of $5,750,000.

Drafted five spots after Larsson in the same draft is Dougie Hamilton. He could command twice the cost  of Larsson at $8 M and that would make for the ultimate splash. Hamilton is one of the top defenseman in the world, and this would be a signing nearly on par with the John Tavares signing.

The Leafs defense pairings would have to undergo restructuring, but with Hamilton, it would form one of the most formidable defense corps in the league.

Hamilton is the prototypical #1 defenseman standing 6’6 tall. He has all-around abilities, but his game is primarily offensively driven. He can quarterback a powerplay and has a canon to boot.

It would be the actual homecoming for the childhood fan, too, somewhat mirroring Tavares back when Dubas completed his first of many big splashes on the opening day of free-agency:

Either case, the Leafs can leverage Holl and his $2 M contract – certainly necessary if Hamilton is in play; in such a case, that would likely make next season Reilly’s last with the Buds (if the writing isn’t already on the wall).

Sandin is in line to play regularly next season and surely there isn’t a better fit than countryman Larsson to be by his side and help him grow.