Maple Leafs: A Comprehensive Guide to an Insufferable Summer.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have decided to publicly announce their intention to retain the “big four” and retool the roster around the edges.  That doesn’t mean their won’t be substantial changes, but it does mean that Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander are almost certain to lead the attack again for the 2021-2022 season.

The summer is going to be a long one after the monumental disappointment of the Maple Leafs not being able to get past the first round of the playoffs for the 5th straight year.  The 5th straight year of having a core group of players that could not, under any circumstances, get the job done.

0-7 in attempts to close out a series.  Outscored 11-2 while going 0-3 in win or go home scenarios.  There are obvious reasons the Leafs lost, but it’s hard not to be emotional.

The team has a really good group of players, and Dubas is betting on that group finding a way to overcome it’s failures.  Finding a way to succeed.  For the sake of Leaf Nation, I hope Dubas has better luck than his players do.

Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are signed long term and, as previously stated, they are all returning for another kick at the can.  Morgan Rielly has one more year at $5 million and then is a UFA.  Zach Hyman is a UFA and Dubas is hopeful that a deal can be worked out to keep him in the fold.  Andersen is a UFA and almost certainly gone.

This guide will explore what it will mean to keep the core in tact, how the rest of the roster will look, and what young players are expected to push for spots.  I will also take a shot at potential targets as replacements, and put together the protected lists for the expansion draft.  I’ll even take a stab at the powerplay (facepalm).

Even if Dubas keeps the “core four”, change is on the horizon.  Here is some food for thought as we try to sludge through the muck of an insufferable summer.

The Salary Cap 

If I’m going to analyze the roster moving forward, I need a blue print to work from.  That begins with the salary cap.  You can find all the information I used relevant to contracts from  .capfriendly.com.  I’m not Brandon Pridham, so this is just a snap shot for the sake of discussion.  Take it with a grain of salt if you’re a perfectionist.

I’m also leaving off some prospects.  I’m only adding the ones I feel have a chance to make an impact on the NHL roster in 2021-2022.  If you disagree, fantastic, but that’s a debate for another article.

The Leafs currently have 18 UFA’s that are not included in this section.  Here’s what the lineup looks like without any additional contracts, factoring in only players that Keefe was comfortable playing last year:

??/Matthews/Marner                                  Rielly/Brodie                       Campbell/??

??/Tavares/Nylander                                    Muzzin/Holl

Mikheyev/Kerfoot/Engvall                          Sandin/??

??/Brooks/??

Extras at forward with NHL experience:  Nick Robertson, Joey Anderson.

RFA forwards:  Nick Petan, Dennis Malgin.

Forward prospects:   Mikhail Abramov, SDA, Filip Hallander, Rodion Amirov.

Extras on defense with NHL experience:  Timothy Liljegren.

RFA defense:  Travis Dermott, Joseph Duszak.

Defense prospects:  Topi Niemela, Teemu Kivihalme.

Extras at goalie with NHL experience:  Michael Hutchinson.

RFA goalies:  Veini Vehvilainen.

Goalie prospects:  Joseph Woll, Ian Scott.

The Leafs are looking at about $12,505,217 in cap space with a minimum of 6 roster spots to fill.

I’m going to add that I believe Kerfoot gets claimed by Seattle, which I’ll discuss later, so that leaves 7 open roster spots with about $16,000,000 in cap space.  It’s important to note that of those 7 spots, 2 are in the top 6, 1 is a center, and 1 is a goalie.  None of those spots are going to be cheap.

It’s easy to think that you can just plug in some ELC’s and call it a day, but I don’t think Dubas will do that.  I don’t think enough guys are NHL ready and the Leafs need to win, they can’t experiment with prospects right now.  Expect some FA signings/and or trades to fill most of these spots.

The Leafs will only have 31 of 50 contract slots filled at the time of writing this.  That’s a lot of open contracts.  I expect Dubas to be busy.

The Expansion Draft – July 21

A good explanation of the expansion draft rules can be found here.  I won’t go into the breakdown, I’ll just submit the two options I believe the Leafs can go with.

Option 1:  7 forwards, 3 defense, 1 goalie.

Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Kerfoot, Hyman, Galchenyuk, Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin, Campbell.

This is probably the nuclear option, meaning it will only be used if the Leafs make a big trade or they resign some of their own FA’s (like Hyman).  Hyman and Galchenyuk are basically place holders here for 2 additional forwards that the Leafs would need to protect.  Basically, if Dubas resigns both of them early so they don’t test the market, then he probably wants to protect them from Seattle.

The free agency period opens on July 28th, which means that the Leafs will most likely sign any impact players after the expansion draft is over.

Being that option 1 is highly unlikely, that brings us to:

Option 2:  8 skaters, 1 goalie.

Matthews/Marner/Tavares/Nylander/Rielly/Brodie/Muzzin/Holl/Campbell.

This option leaves Kerfoot and Dermott exposed.  Nobody really knows what Dermott is or what he’s going to cost moving forward, which points to Kerfoot as the likely target of the Seattle Kraken.  Kerfoot is a useful player with tremendous versatility, and he’s on an ok contract, all of which makes him a very tradeable commodity if the Kracken don’t want to keep him long-term.

It’s very possible that Seattle takes Kerfoot and plays him in their top 6 to cement his market value, and then trades him for assets at the deadline or in the summer.  If they really like him, well then they have a good player with decent cost certainty in his prime.

Either way, I don’t think Dubas and the Leafs are going to stress the expansion draft too much.  If they get to keep Kerfoot, great, but it’s probably a bonus.  They are prepared to lose him.  And if they lose Dermott, well I don’t think they stress that for a second.  Sandin will be ready to step in and play a full season next year.  Having to find a 6th or 7th D in free agency is a very solvable problem.

This could change if the Leafs have plans to acquire another defenseman, which would give the option of exposing Holl and protecting Kerfoot.  This is hypothetical and unlikely, so I won’t give it more than a quick mention.

External options

Interesting free agents on the market:

Phillip Danault, C – Strong defensive center that tilts the ice in his team’s favor.  His last deal paid him a hair over 3 million but he may not have the offensive numbers to ask for a raise.  Hard to imagine him taking a deal to play in Toronto.  Stranger things have happened.

Paul Stastny, C – Veteran guy that can still play the middle effectively as a third line center.  He will be targeted by a lot of teams and might decide to go to a place he feels he can win.  He’s coming off of a 6.5 million AAV.  He won’t get close to that in his next deal.

Jaden Schwartz, F – Underrated player who can score and knows how to win.  Was very effective for the Blues during their Cup run.  Will the market prices drive down his value far enough for the Leafs to look at him.  His last deal was 5.35 million AAV.

Brandon Saad, F – Still has good speed, will give you 20 goals, and is a proven winner.  28 years old and probably looking for a long-term deal.  Last contract was 5 million per and the bidding may get too high for the Leafs.

Blake Coleman, F – Plays wherever you need him and does everything well.  Can chip in offensively.  Key contributor in Tampa’s Cup run last year.  He will get a raise from his expiring 1.8 million AAV.  A classic overpay candidate.

Tomas Tatar, F – Smart player who is perennially underrated offensively.  Not the fleetest of foot, but knows where to go and what to do.  Underperforms in the playoffs.  He’s coming off a deal that paid him 4.8 AAV and I doubt he gets close to that number again.

Linus Ullmark, G – Good numbers on a bad team and is entering his prime.  His old contract paid him 2.6 million AAV and I don’t think he gets less than that unless he signs with a team as part of a tandem.  Have to see how the market plays out, but he probably wants to be a starter.

Trade rumors that make sense.

Honestly, I couldn’t find any.  Emotions mess with your brain, so some of the rumors out there are just a joke.  It’s also too early for trade rumors as the playoffs are still in full swing.  I will note a few players that might be available, and that I think the Leafs should at least inquire about.  Call this my wish list.

Marc-Andre Fleury, G – He has one more year at a 7 million dollar cap hit, so Vegas would have to eat 50% just to take the phone call, but is there a better goalie in the game right now?  Even at 37, he’s just such a gamer, and an absolute game-changer in net.  He probably wins the Vezna this year.  Campbell splitting time with Fleury, learning from him, could make up the best duo in the league.

Marcus Foligno, F – Why not?  Maybe we can have both brothers bangin’ n’ crashin’ like maniacs.  Seriously though, the Wild have some tough choices to make before the expansion draft.  It’s possible a good forward becomes available.  Foligno is a good forward and is signed at 3.1 million for 3 more years.  Maybe the Wild take Engvall in the deal to offset some salary.

Sam Reinhart, F – A productive offensive player that apparently can also play center.  Does he want out of Buffalo?  He’s an RFA coming off a 5.2 million dollar deal.  He’s 25 years old.  Did I mention that he can play center?  Dubas should be calling about this guy.  All GM’s want to make trades with Kevyn Adams.

Conor Garland, F – The Toronto Maple Leafs were asking about this guy at the deadline.  He’s a RFA who is coming off of his ELC, and he’s going to get paid.  The Coyotes don’t have any money.  Is there a blockbuster in there somewhere?  Garland is worth the swing if you’re taking a swing…just saying.  I bet Dubas calls Bill Armstrong again.

The Powerplay

I wrote this section 3 times.  I edited it, and erased it, every time.  Each edition was a rant.  A rant full of flaming capital letters and exclamation points.  This is the 4th edition, and I hope it’s toned down enough to be legible.

If the PP got it’s act together in the playoffs we would forget about the 33 games of futility that we saw in the regular season…but it didn’t.

The Leafs went 3-23 in the series against the Habs.  That’s a 13% success rate.  Montreal went 3-19 in the series, a 16% success rate.  Seems about even right?  Seems a little bit ineffective but acceptable right?

Wrong.

When the Leafs were up 3 games to 1 against the bad guys, they held a huge special teams advantage.  The Leafs were 3-16 on the PP and the Habs were 0-13.  There was one tiny little caveat…the Habs won game 1 with a short handed goal.  But hey, we’re up 3-1 in the series.  No biggie.

Then came games 5, 6, and 7.  In those games, the Habs went 3-6 on the PP and the Leafs went 0-7.  So when it mattered the most, the Maple Leafs PP reverted back to the cosmic black whole of offense during each of the deciding games in the series.  One goal could have seen this team playing Winnipeg right now.

The Solution

Take Marner off the first unit.  The first unit should be as follows:

Matthews and Nylander on the half wall, Tavares in the bumper, Spezza in the net front/behind net spot, and Sandin at the point.

Nylander, Tavares, and Spezza should be moving around in rotation.  All three can move in and out of the net front/behind net/bumper spots, circling and switching, then bringing Nylander back out again as a shooter from the half wall.  All three of these players can shoot and pass.  Matthews and Sandin can walk the line and go high-low.  Movement and versatility is key here.  They must break down the PK structure to free up a shooter, especially Matthews.

Passes to the slot don’t exist unless you create them by forcing the PK to breakdown and open up.  Movement is one way to do that.  Shots that create scrambles are another way.

Sandin needs to shoot from the point.  The most important aspect of the point on the PP is that they will take the shot when it’s there.  It must be taken, otherwise the PK will just fixate on your primary threats.  The point shot does not need to score, but it must be taken consistently for tips and rebounds.

For those of you wondering, Sandin over Marner here because you MUST have a defender on the PP just in case the PK is in a position to attack.  Having all forwards on the ice would be a circus.  It’s already been a circus so we don’t need to revisit that idea.

The second unit should be Marner/Rielly/Muzzin/Kerfoot/??

This is a group that needs a PP add over the summer.  Maybe that player is Robertson.  I like that group if it ends up being that.  Marner and Rielly are your carriers and facilitators, Kerfoot is your speed entry or your decoy.  Between those 3, there should be good entries and puck movement in the zone.

Roberston is your shot threat from the half wall and Muzzin in your shot from the point.  They still need a net front/bumper player, possibly to replace Kerfoot, in order to make a balanced PP unit.  This player will have to come from free agency or via trade, resigning Hyman would be a perfect fit here as an example, with Marner and Rielly controlling the entries.

The second unit is a complete roll of the dice at this point because we have no idea what the roster is going to look like.  I imagine there will be players here that Dubas will acquire this summer.

The first unit needs to dominate, and the hardest decision of Keefe’s coaching career will be to take Marner off that unit so that it CAN dominate.

Can they get it done?

I already wrote once that they would get it done and was horribly incorrect.  But I will say this, I like the fact that Dubas will have a lot of open space to work with in terms of contracts.  Something is missing from this team.  It gives Dubas more bullets to fire at the problem, and maybe he finds the answer.

I have a feeling it could be like what Florida did this year.  They made sweeping changes to their supporting cast.  The Maple Leafs could do the same, especially at forward.  Something needs to change in the locker room to remove some of the comfort level, and they need more speed in the bottom 6.  I would like to see another player that has won a Stanley Cup.

The upgrades are out there and this management team is creative enough to find a way to go and get them.  They’ve done it before.  They’ll do it again.  Eventually, you have to think they will find the right combination…right?  Maybe they get lucky.

We’ll find out soon enough.  It’s time to put this failure of a season behind us and move on to the draft, free agency, trade rumors, and the eternal gossip that is the off-season.  It’s the time of year where you can dream of what your team is going to be like when they play again and argue about it with your friends.

The problem with Leaf fans is that we weren’t ready for all that to begin so soon.  We were eager for more games, more battles, and more hockey.

Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe, and the core group of this team, they all have a lot of work to do.  They have to earn our trust and show us they are worth our emotional investment again.  The only way to do that is to win 4 games in the playoffs.

Maybe I’m just an eternal optimist, but I’m hopeful that they get it right.  I still have belief in my heart for this team.  It will be sweet indeed if, this time, I’m actually right.

Go Leafs.