Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Loss Acceptable and Explainable

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost in one of the flukiest ways possible, and while at first, when emotions are high, some craziness can be expected. But, after you relax a little bit, it’s clear there is no problem.

In the aftermath of the Toronto Maple Leafs latest loss, I heard so many people talk about how “unacceptable” the loss was.  I found that pretty annoying because to me, an “unacceptable” loss would be one where the team didn’t show up, the goalie blew it, the special teams were crap, or the players were just bad.

But none of that happened. The team showed up for sure: they had a positive expected-goals rating in every single game of the series.  The goalie didn’t blow it, he he had a .934 save percentage, higher than Carey Prices at both 5v5 and overall. The special teams were decent – the PK was almost perfect, allowing just two 5-4 goals and three overall, while the two teams played special teams to a tie over seven games.

A team that competed for 1st overall in the entire NHL until the last games of the season failed in the playoffs because of a few unlucky results.

Toronto Maple Leafs Are Victims of Wacky Results in a Small Sample Size

The Leafs are now the only team in NHL history to come back from two multi-goal deficits in the same series and lose both games in overtime.  I’m pretty sure they are also one of the only teams to ever lose a series when they went 7-0 in expected goals, while finishing with a higher save percentage than the team that beat them.

Even though the Leafs were a much better regular season team than Montreal, entering the series the Canadiens still had a one in five chance of winning if both teams were healthy. Take away the Captain, John Tavares (elite player) for the whole series, and Jake Muzzin (elite defenseman) for the last two games, and the that 20% moves a lot closer to 50%.

Go ahead and say that injuries shouldn’t be an excuse, but then please do not spend six hours dissecting every fourth line move the team makes all season long.

The Leafs lost two games in overtime – one of them seconds after an uncalled match penalty headshot, on a fluttering puck that will almost never go in.  What can you do?

I would be more upset about this loss if it wasn’t just so random.  The Toronto Maple Leafs showed up, they played great, they even showed heart by never quitting and executing two comebacks.

It is extremely unlikely that a team would have the following 5v5 stats and still lose: 52% puck-possession rating,  55% of the shots, 57% of the goals, 58% of the expected-goals, 54% of the scoring chances, and 58% of the dangerous scoring chances, while getting 94% save percentage.

These are the numbers of a great team destroying an inferior opponent, and doing it without one of their best players.  As for Marner and Matthews, their numbers were just as great as normal. Matthews scored once on 35 shots, which is preposterous considering that he usually averages about four or five more goals on the same number of shots.

In the regular season Marner and Matthews averaged one more high danger chance  per hour of 5v5 ice time than they got in the playoffs, so it’s not like they were shutdown in any way.

If a team loses and you can point to something and say “they need to fix that” it’s more cathartic and understandable, and thus easier to deal with.  But when the team plays damn-near perfectly and still loses, it may be more frustrating, but it’s the better situation.  The Leafs don’t really need anything, except a bit better luck.  A healthier roster, and a higher shooting percentage (not both, just one of those things) and they win both their last two series.

Over the last 12 playoff games, the Toronto Maple Leafs have shot 4%.  Every single other team that has played more than 3 games (23 other NHL teams) in the last two years has shot at least 5%. (All stats naturalstatrick.com).

If the Leafs had shot 5% they’d have beaten both Columbus and Montreal.  So we shouldn’t blame the team, the players or the managers. They’ve  done nothing but put themselves in position to win, and have played in such a manner that they were the best team in 11 of their last 12 playoff games.

You can sit there and accuse me of making excuses, but the facts are the facts, and teams that play the way the Leafs played almost always win.  The odds of Matthews and Marner being so ice-cold are astronomical and when astronomically unlucky things happen, there’s no point in being mad. Just put your head down, buckle up, stay the course and try again.