The Toronto Maple Leafs Need to Stay the Course – No Major Changes

The Toronto Maple Leafs have disappointed us once again.

Up 3-1 in a series against an inferior opponent, the Toronto Maple Leafs have no excuse for losing three straight and coming up short for their fans yet again. 

The thing is though, they don’t need one.

The team lost, and it sucks, but this isn’t the NBA and the best team doesn’t always win. Even a fully healthy Leafs roster was still going to lose this series once in five tries (and the 80% win probability, stated by Dom L of the Athletic, who is the most accurate forecaster in the business, is EXTREMELY HIGH for an NHL series, most of which are close to coin flips).

If we look at this series in the context of the Leafs inability to get beyond the first round, it’s incredibly frustrating. I get the impulse to blow it up, or to at the very least demand change.

But that kind of emotional reaction is always guaranteed to be short-sighted and filled with mistakes.

Toronto Maple Leafs Must Stay the Course

The Leafs should bring back the same coach, GM and core of their hockey team for another kick at the can next year.   I’ve seen a lot of really bad, reductive, immature, and (frankly) dumb ideas in the last 48 hours:  everything from trading Marner (give me a break) to lamenting the loss of Lou Lamoriell (he would have traded Nylander for ten cents on the dollar).

None of this is necessary.

Kyle Dubas has always stressed the idea of process over results, and that is the key for the Leafs this off-season.  They built a deep team with tons of leadership, experience and talent.  Almost everyone agreed that they had an idea mix of grinders and skilled players.  They got excellent goaltending, PK, and defense.  They showed from their ability to play from behind that they had heart.

For the second straight year, the thing that let them down was a mixture of injuries, the other team’s goalie, and their best players inability to take advantage of the team’s biggest strength – their offense.

Now, as counter-intuitive as this will sound, if you’re biggest strength lets you down that is a good thing from a team building perspective.  When you’re reeling from a loss, things like outplaying your opponent, probability and shooting-percentage are not great comforts.

But you can only provide strong analysis if you are honest and dispassionate, and if we do that, we are going to be stating some pretty unpopular things:

Things like injuries being a huge factor.  Things like keeping in mind that this team has outplayed their opponents in 12 of 13 playoff games over the last year.  That they have won big, but only lost by the thinnest of margins.  That their best players are still so young.

Scant comfort today maybe, but the Leafs future remains bright. Blowing it up now would be an idiotic emotional reaction – ironically, that tendency to make change for the sake of change is one  reason the Leafs have gone so long between Stanley Cups. It’s probably the biggest single factor, actually.

There is nothing about Mitch Marner that prevents him from scoring in the playoffs.  This is just  random occurrence that looks bad, but which another 15 or so playoff games will balance out.

Look, the Toronto Maple Leafs are supposed to be a team that uses and respects data to make themselves better.   The primary reason for adopting this philosophy is so that you don’t make stupid emotional moves that are reactions to the results of small sample sizes.

The Toronto Maple Leafs ability to stick with the right process in the face of less-than-ideal results will be put to the test this summer, but they’ve got to stare down their critics and stay the course.  It’s going to be hard not to overreact, but the Leafs are in good shape.  If Tavares didn’t go down one minute into game one, they’d be playing right now.  If the world’s best goal scorer had scored more than once, they’ve still be playing.  Keep this in mind and don’t let the mob mentality ruin a great plan.