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Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Will Easily Dispatch the Canadiens

By Jordan Maresky

MONTREAL, QC - MAY 03: Morgan Rielly #44 of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates his first period goal against the Montreal Canadiens with teammate Alex Galchenyuk #12 at the Bell Centre on May 3, 2021 in Montreal, Canada. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)
MONTREAL, QC - MAY 03: Morgan Rielly #44 of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates his first period goal against the Montreal Canadiens with teammate Alex Galchenyuk #12 at the Bell Centre on May 3, 2021 in Montreal, Canada. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images) /
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TORONTO, ON – MARCH 9: The Toronto Maple Leafs trio of Zach Hyman #11, Mitchell Marner #16,  . (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON – MARCH 9: The Toronto Maple Leafs trio of Zach Hyman #11, Mitchell Marner #16,  . (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /

Reason #3: Talent Discrepancy

Lastly, the biggest factor currently separating the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Montreal Canadiens is the sheer gap of talent between the two franchises.

They do not have an Auston Matthews. They do not have a Mitch Marner.

The most prolific duo in Leafs  history ended the season in fourth (Marner) and fifth (Matthews) in league scoring while controlling 61% of the expected goals together. With both finishing in the top eight in average game score for the season, the Canadiens truly have no one on their roster that can match up against the second-best twosome in the NHL.

It is no secret the Habs struggled after their most important forward, Brendan Gallagher, went down with injury on April 5th (7-12-2, .381 P%, 27th in the NHL since) but even he would rank outside the Leafs top three forwards in average game score, with Zach Hyman joining Matthews and Marner.

And looking at the top six forwards heading into this series, five belong to Toronto.

Average Game Score:

1. Matthews – 1.81

2. Marner – 1.53

3. Hyman – 1.25

4. Gallagher – 1.24

5. Tavares – 1.12

6. Nylander – 1.04

Although lauded for their incredible depth, Marc Bergevin’s franchise still has nothing on Kyle Dubas’.  The 11-minutes-a-night Jason Spezza would have tied Tomas Tatar for fourth on the Canadiens in scoring this season and ranked 26th in the NHL in scoring per minute, above Kirill Kaprizov and teammate William Nylander. (Game score from the Athletic).

The blueline and goaltending also favour Toronto. Both of the Leafs top two pairs outrank the Canadiens’ top four in expected goals percentage. To put this advantage into perspective, Jeff Petry lead the Habs d-core with a 54% xGF rating, but that number would rank below five of the Leafs’ six most common defensemen.

In net, none of the Ducharme’s options had a better season than that of Jack Campbell and a lot of Leafsnation’s fear is out of what Carey Price could do rather than focusing on what he, most likely, will do.

Campbell should get into the Vezina conversation – albeit a very little – after finishing the season with a 17-3-2 record, a 2.15 goals-against average, a .921 save percentage, and 4.66 goals saved above expected. Take a look at the Canadiens’ duo in net:

Carey Price: 12-7-5, 2.64 GAA, .901 SVP, -8.11 GSAx

Jake Alen: 11-12-5, 2.68 GAA, .907 SVP, – -4.26 GSAx

Next. Toronto Maple Leafs: 3 Bold Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions. dark

The stars are aligning for the Toronto Maple Leafs to finally break their 17-year playoff drought and it is important to enjoy the ride because, against the Montreal Canadiens, you will not want to miss it.

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