Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Will Easily Dispatch the Canadiens

Reason #2: Questionable Coaching Decisions

Promoted mid-season to interim head coach, understandably Ducharme would have to deal with some rough stretches in his first season being the boss behind the bench. But for the Toronto Maple Leafs, exploiting questionable roster decisions is going to be a key component in eliminating the Montreal Canadiens quickly and swiftly.

Up front, one of the more prominent coaching decisions Ducharme seems to be making for game one is the healthy scratching of effective forwards Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Cole Caufield, in favour of trade deadline acquisition, Eric Staal.

Since April 5th, Staal’s first game with the Bleu Blanc et Rouge, he has only registered two goals and a secondary assist in his 21 games since the trade. An average game score of -0.22 has the long-time veteran only above three Canadien’s forwards: Michael Frolik, who has played six games as Ducharme’s taxi squad mainstay, Jesse Ylonen who made his season debut last Wednesday, and Jonathan Drouin, who has been taking an indefinite leave of absence from the team for personal reasons since April 28th.

Staal has an abysmal 39% expected goals rating since becoming a Montreal Canadien, by far the worst mark on the team, and although Kotkaniemi is only controlling 47% of the expected goals himself, the younger and more fleet of foot pivot has a lot more to give in a playoff series against the highly skilled Leafs roster (stats; Evolving-Hockey).

Finding a spot for Caufield as well should be imperative as no one in the current projected lineup has the ability to score goals quite like the rookie can. With four goals in 10 career games and the fifth-highest average game score of all forwards since his debut, scratching Caufield would be a mistake.

Similarly, on the backend, among the Habs most common top six blueliners, arguably the team’s most effective defensemen, Brett Kulak, ranked dead last in time on ice per game in the regular season.

Using Corey Sznajder’s manually tracked data, Kulak has been one of Montreal’s best defensemen in transition, ranking first with only 1.1 failed exits per 60 (Romanov ranks second at 1.7), and third with 6.7 entries per 60 (Petry leads with 7.7).

Kulak also ranks second among Habs defensemen in Wins Above Replacement (shooting-adjusted) and labeling the Alberta native as the team’s sixth or seventh defensemen will lead to an extremely disappointing and short series for the Montreal Canadiens.