Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Will Easily Dispatch the Canadiens

Reason #1: Team Strategy

Canadiens’ Offensive Scheme Plays Right into Leafs Defensive System.

As the 7-2-1 season series would indicate, the Toronto Maple Leafs match up very well against the Montreal Canadiens and that is because of the way Dominque Ducharme likes to generate his team’s offense.

The Canadiens often opt for quantity over quality which results in plenty of point shots, with little chance of going in.

In terms of low-danger shots for at five-on-five, the Habs rank fifth league-wide, which plays directly into Sheldon Keefe’s plan (stats; MoneyPuck). Protecting the net-front area has been a key element of the Leafs system, where conceding point shots in favour of slot chances has lead the team to success thus far.

The Leafs rank eighth in high-danger chances against per 60 minutes at five-on-five – and fourth since March 20th when Jack Campbell took over as the team’s starter  (stats; Natural Stat Trick).

For example, the Habs top pairing of Ben Chiarot and Shea Weber are two of the biggest culprits in the NHL regarding the lowest average expected goal value per five-on-five shot attempt. As of April 19th, Chiarot had the 8th worst xG value per shot attempt with his partner Weber ranking 18th (stats; JFresh).

In-zone offensive creation remains a struggle for a Canadiens team that lacks major offensive firepower, and as such, they rely on speed off the rush to generate most of their five-on-five goal-scoring.

As of May 5th, the team had averaged seven rush chances per game, and when they hit that number or higher, Montreal was 17-4-7. However, if the opposition limited them to six or fewer, the team cradled to 7-14-2 (source; Sportsnet).

And it just so happens the Leafs are one of the premier teams at preventing goals against scored off the rush. Per a JFresh article, Toronto ranks third league-wide with only 31% of their five-on-five goals against coming off the rush, behind only the suffocating Dallas Stars and the current Stanley Cup favourites, the Colorado Avalanche.

With the Canadiens scoring 1.3 rush goals per 60 at five-on-five – fourth-most in the league – and the Leafs only surrendering 0.6 – tied for second least – it would not surprise me to see Ducharme’s team struggle mightily to find offense in the tightened-up Stanley Cup Playoffs.