Maple Leafs vs Habs, Game 1 Analysis: Who Is Playing And Why
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens begin their playoff series tonight.
The first place Toronto Maple Leafs, fresh off one of their best regular seasons in franchise history, will take on the underdog Habs in a best of seven series. It is the first time in 42 years these teams have met in the playoffs.
Sheldon Keefe and Dominique Ducharme have held practice all week as they get ready for an epic original six battle that starts Thursday. Both of these teams are ready to go, and by all accounts, both coaches have access to the bodies that they want and have set the rosters for game 1.
I’m going to take a deep dive into what that will be, and what it will mean for both teams.
Leafs: Game 1 Lineup
Hyman-Matthews-Marner Rielly-Brodie Campbell-Andersen
Foligno-Tavares-Nylander Muzzin-Holl
Kerfoot-Nash-Mikheyev Sandin-Bogosian
Thornton-Spezza-Simmonds
Notable Extras: Galchenyuk (F), Brooks (F), Engvall (F), Robertson (F), Dermott (D), Hutton (D), Rittich (G).
The Toronto Maple Leafs have additional depth here, especially at forward, but I don’t think we will see anybody not on this list unless things really go south. The Habs are a very physical team. They will try and use that advantage to tilt the ice and make this match-up more competitive than most fans think it will be. I fully expect the Leafs to use 15 forwards and 8 defense by the end of the series if it goes to 7 games.
The only real controversy here for me is leaving out Galchenyuk and Dermott. Personally, I agree with each decision, but I’ll take a look at why I think Keefe made these moves for game 1. Keefe touched on many of these decisions here after practice on Wednesday.
Galchenyuk has played fairly well most of the year after given a chance as a reclamation project by Kyle Dubas. Realistically, none of the vets were going to come out of the lineup unless they were injured, so the only options for keeping Galchenyuk in was to take out either Mikheyev or Kerfoot.
Mikheyev has done almost nothing offensively all year long, but he is too important to a PK that has really looked strong to finish the season. The Leafs know the PP is a problem right now, so they need to be strong on the penalty kill in order to break even on special teams.
This same analogy applies, in part, to Kerfoot as well. Kefoot has become an important piece of the PK, plus his speed and ability to break out of the defensive zone will really help the Nash line to become the checking line that Keefe wants. Two good defensive wingers and a very good defensive center give the Leafs a look that they did not have this year. This is the line that I’m most intrigued by and will be watching closely come Thursday.
Playing Sandin over Dermott was an obvious one for me. Sandin is the better player and he’s also part of the future, where as we don’t know what will happen to Dermott next year. I don’t think Sandin needs to be protected any more. Let him play.
Playing Bogosian over Dermott is a little bit more controversial to some. Not to me. Montreal is a VERY physical team and they will use that to every advantage they can get. They will test the referees and crash the net like maniacs. It’s the only chance they really have at beating this Leafs team. The Leafs will need Bogo. There is no way Keefe should sit him if he’s healthy.
Plus, Bogosian is also a key contributor on the PK, and it’s obvious that Keefe is prioritizing that area against a Habs team that struggles to score goals. Don’t let their PP get going. Snuff them out right away.
Leafs: Power-play
Unit 1: Hyman/Matthews/Marner/Thornton/Sandin
Unit 2: Simmonds/Tavares/Nylander/Spezza/Rielly
Sheldon Keefe is going back to the two unit philosophy that was so successful in the early part of the season (official tweet is here). He liked the balance and internal competition it provided. He did mention in his media availability that there will be times he will load up a single PP when it makes sense to do so, but that he wants to keep players fresh and active. I really like this move. Better late than never, I guess.
Another change is the move to make the net front presence a priority again. Both Simmonds and Hyman were very effective early on in creating havoc in the crease, and this allows the skill players to effectively play 4 on 3 because it forces the PK to keep a D in front of the net at all times.
Swapping Sandin and Rielly is another change that gives the PP a different look. I like having Sandin with Matthews because he will shoot more. This takes some of the focus off of Matthews, which can eventually open things up for him. Hyman is there to make plays at the net when Sandin does shoot. This is a good set up.
The real key for the PP to get back on track is to retrieve pucks at a higher rate. They need to get pucks back after shots and deflections so they can shoot again while the PK is scrambling. That is why so many goals are scored after puck retrieval.
Typically, the PK is set up in a structure of their choosing initially, but after the puck works around and is shot, players begin to scramble and fight for loose pucks. That’s when they are disorganized, so if you win the puck battle, the next offensive attempt is more dangerous.
This is so important to a deadly PP, and the Toronto Maple Leafs were very good at this earlier in the year when the PP was a force to be reckoned with. They need to get back to that level of work ethic. I expect that they will.
Canadiens: Game 1 Lineup
Toffoli-Suzuki-Armia Edmundson-Petry Price-Allen
Tatar-Danault-Gallagher Merril-Weber
Perry-Stall-Anderson Kulak-Chiarot
Lehkonen-Evans-Byron
Notable Extras: Caufield (F), Kotkaniemi (F), Frolik (F), Romanov (D), Gustafsson (D), Ouellet (D), Primeau (G).
Jonathan Drouin is still on personal leave and doubtful for the series. There is plenty of drama here when looking at which players Ducharme is not dressing for game 1. Habs fans are not happy about a few of these choices, and as a Leaf fan, I’m sure my take on this will be plenty controversial.
Let’s start with the hot ticket in Montreal right now, Cole Caufield. There is no question that this kid has a superb amount of talent. He’s an elite skater with an elite shot, and he’s a really special player when he gets some time and space. The problem? There won’t be any time and space.
Caufield is known as a goal scorer and his 4 goals in 10 games was an impressive NHL debut. It pains me to do this to Habs fans, but 2 of his 4 goals were scored in 3 on 3 OT. Scoring a couple of cool goals during “pond hockey” is not going to get you on the playoff roster.
That being said, I do believe that he will play in the series. He just won’t play in Toronto. Ducharme is smart, he will play the kid in Montreal when he has the last line change. That way he can keep him away from Toronto’s top 6 and get him some PP time. He could be a difference maker if he can be sheltered properly.
Now to the decision that I absolutely do not understand one bit. Staal in for Kotkaniemi. What? And for those of you that are saying Evans is in for Kotkaniemi, uh no way, Evans is a 4th liner and a pretty good one. Kotkaniemi was the Habs #1 center at one point. Then he was the #2 center. Then he played some #3 center. He even played some wing late in the season. I’m confused.
I’m not even going to bother posting their stats. It’s not even close. Not only is Kotkaniemi better offensively, but he’s better defensively, and he’s more physical, and he’s faster, and he’s also part of the young core that the Habs are building around. Or is he? Hence the confusion on my part. Frankly, compared to all of that, Eric Stall is horrible, and he’s a rental. I think this decision could cost the Habs a chance at the series.
The other controversial choice for game one comes on defense. John Merril is playing instead of Alexader Romanov. I get the whole “experience” thing, and I know the Leafs are doing some of it too, but Romanov is one of the few defenseman on this entire roster that can actually skate. I mean, they gave the other guy away for nothing (Victor Mete).
I know the Habs really believe that out-muscling the Leafs is probably their best shot at winning, but you need to be able to move around the rink. With skates on. Faster than my grandmother.
Canadiens: Power-play
Unit 1: Toffoli/Gallagher/Suzuki/Perry/Petry
Unit 2: Staal/Armia/Anderson/Tatar/Weber
This has been the two units as of practice yesterday. The Habs PP has been inconsistent all season long. The 1st unit has some good elements and could get going if the Leafs aren’t careful. Gallagher and Perry are absolute mayhem, Toffoli can score if he gets open, and Suzuki is probably their best PP creator. I like this group in theory and it could heat up now that Gallagher is back.
This is why Keefe has prioritized PK players for some of his roster decisions. Keep this PP off the stat sheet and the Habs have trouble scoring.
The 2nd unit just looks jumbled together with any players that have some offensive ability. Tatar can create a little bit here, but the main threat is Weber at the point. They will focus on tips and screens, and try to outwork the PK.
Not much firepower here, but this is where blocking Weber’s shots from the point could send players walking down the hall to visit the medical staff. This is where injuries happen, and so for that alone, this unit has a small intimidation factor.
One additional note to make here, is that if Caufield dresses in Montreal like I think he will, he will be used on the PP. Most likely the 2nd unit. That does change the dynamic of that unit a little bit because Caufield is a threat there.
A Quick Prediction
This article was just a roster breakdown, especially because there are several controversial decisions that I felt needed to be looked at and analyzed. But it wouldn’t be fair if I didn’t give a quick prediction for the series now that we have all of the relevant information.
I think Montreal will make it competitive by pushing the boundaries of what the referees will and will not tolerate. Expect a LOT of nasty stick-work, charging and boarding, and several instances where a player wearing red is trying to sit on top of Campbell.
Expect the mounting pressure in both cities to climb to astronomical levels of absurdity. Expect a media frenzy, like throwing chum in shark infested water and tossing in several players from the losing team. Expect fans to get nuts on twitter.
Expect it all.
But expect the Toronto Maple Leafs to win. A hard-fought and entertaining series will end in victory for the blue and white. The Leafs will defeat the Habs in 6.
Next. What the Leafs Playoff Lineup Should Look Like. dark
The Maple Leafs PP will come alive and be a factor, and they will push back physically just enough to not be intimidated. Auston Matthews will be dominant. Campbell will make some timely saves and silence the critics. Price will reveal that he is a mortal and can no longer put the Habs on his back. In the end, talent will win the day.
Go Leafs!