The Toronto Maple Leafs finished fifth in the NHL standings over a 56 game regular season in which they only played the other Canadian teams.
Though the Toronto Maple Leafs had (by points percentage) their best season ever, it’s hard to know how good they actually are compared to other teams in other divisions.
This isn’t a problem specific to the Leafs though – It’s hard to get a grasp on how good any team truly is in this weird NHL season. Two of the divisions (the Colorado/ Vegas division, and the Carolina/Tampa division) are top heavy, while the other two are more average less extreme.
The Leafs, for example, haven’t got to play any of the other best teams in hockey, but they also didn’t really get to pad their totals by beating up the Ducks, Sharks, Kings and Coyotes – four teams that couldn’t beat the worst team in the Canadian division in a playoff series.
Though we don’t have any head-to-head games to go by, I think the Leafs will stand up very well against other teams for a myriad of reasons.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs the Rest of the NHL
The reason I think the Leafs have a real chance to win the Stanley Cup and show that they are the NHL’s best team is that they combine high-end skill with a deep roster that can beat you in multiple ways.
- Best goal scorer in the NHL. Not only did Matthews flirt with a goal per game this season while healthy, but almost half the Leafs regulation losses came during the ten games where he couldn’t shoot the puck. James Mirtle said yesterday on twitter that Matthews has 30% more 5v5 goals than the next best player over the last two years.
- Puck Retrieval – with Nick Foligno, Zach Hyman and William Nylander, the Leafs have three of the best players in the NHL for getting the puck back.
- Defense – Rielly is an elite offensive defenseman, while both Brodie and Muzzin were in the 90th percentile this season in terms of overall effectiveness. Add in the elite defensive stats of Travis Dermott and the fact that Rasmus Sandin often looks like a #1 instead of a #5 and you might have the best blue-line in hockey, outside of Colorado, at least.
- Relentless offense: No team in the league can offer a Tavares/Nylander second line. If you succeed in shutting down the Leafs top line, they have a second top line.
- Depth: the Leafs 4th line features three former stars who are all still way more effective than you’d think. Add in the fact that one of Dermott or Bogosian will start on the bench, while Nick Robertson, Alex Galchenyuk and Pierre Engvall will all be available if necessary.
- Defense: There is no reason to think a Kerfoot/Nash/Mikheyev line won’t be among the best shut-down lines in the NHL.
- Elite Talent. Here is a list of the Toronto Maple Leafs elite players: Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Rielly, Muzzin, Brodie, Hyman. I don’t know how many other teams in the NHL have eight star players, but I’m guessing probably none.
- Star-Star-Retriever on both the top two lines is going to be nearly impossible to contain. They finished fifth in the entire season without being able to do this (Hyman was injured basically as soon as they got Foligno). It’s going to be hard to stop.
- Goaltending: Jack Campbell would be the Vezina front runner if he played enough games to qualify.
- Power Play: This keeps getting listed as a weakness. Are you kidding me? The team went through an unlucky streak and then maybe that got in their heads a bit, but there is no reason this shouldn’t be the NHL’s best PP.
In the end, I think it’s clear that the fact that the Leafs were 5th overall with a wonky power-play, 14 games where Matthews either didn’t play or couldn’t shoot, and never having been able to use the Foligno/Hyman combo in the top six bodes very well for their playoff potential.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are a relentless, unstoppable machine that has the best roster in the NHL and is very shortly going to prove they are the best team.