Playoff Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens
The Toronto Maple Leafs will play the Montreal Canadiens in the first round of the 2021 Playoffs
After grinding through the offseason, the Toronto Maple Leafs clinched the top spot in the Scotia North Division. In the first round of the playoffs, they will play against their longtime rivals, the Montreal Canadiens.
The two teams have a history that goes way back to 1917 when the NHL held its first season. Thus far, they played 757 games against each other, with the Habs edging the Leafs by 37 games.
Now, the two teams will battle it out in a seven-game series to advance to the second round. While Montreal made it that far back in 2015, the Leafs haven’t passed the first round since 2004. Enough about the past; let’s get ready for this year.
The Playoffs officially started on May 15th, but Toronto doesn’t play until May 20th. That’s when the first and fourth-placed teams in the Scotia North Division will kickoff Game 1.
What follows is a complete breakdown on every aspect of the game, in an effort to determine each teams strengths and weaknesses.
Offense
The Leafs, known for their goal-scoring abilities, finished sixth in the NHL for goals scored. Star forwards Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews, who rank fourth and fifth in NHL scoring, lead the way.
Matthews’ 41 goals scored would have tied for fifth in the NHL last season, despite playing only 52 games this season. Marner’s 47 assists rank him fourth in the NHL but are better than it sounds. While they had the best offensive seasons on the team, three other players averaged over 0.75 points per game.
Montreal was not so effective offensively, ranking 17th in the NHL for goals scored. Their top points-getter was forward Tyler Toffoli, who finished the season with 44 points in 52 games. That would rank fourth on the Leafs.
Defenseman Jeff Petry had a career year, racking up 12 goals and 42 points in 55 games. Sophomore Nick Suzuki enjoyed a productive season as well, with 41 points in 56 games. Unfortunately, it drops off from there.
Regarding depth, the Leafs had more players rack up more points in their top 10, but the Canadiens’ offense was more spread out. Their bottom guys put up more points.
By eye, both teams were able to get themselves plenty of chances all year long. I have to give the edge to the Leafs for that, considering their stretch in March when it appeared as if every shot hit the post or crossbar.
With the Leafs considered one of the top offensive teams in the NHL even before the season started, it is a no-brainer. The Toronto Maple Leafs have the superior offense in this matchup.
While the Habs had depth scoring, Toronto’s best players were unstoppable. Maybe not Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl’s level, but they have to be the next best.
Edge: Toronto Maple Leafs
Defense
An offense firing on all cylinders is fantastic but useless if the opposition keeps up with you. That’s why being stable defensively is crucial to winning.
For quite some time now, the Leafs were considered a poor defensive team. It appears to have gotten better with new additions. General manager Kyle Dubas added some defensive names over the past couple of seasons. That includes defensemen T.J. Brodie and Jake Muzzin, along with forwards Nick Foligno and Alex Kerfoot.
Four Leafs, including Muzzin and Brodie, averaged over one blocked shot per game. While no one averages one takeaway per game, six players average more than two takeaways per 60 minutes played. While Toronto’s eighth-worst penalty-kill is a little concerning, they place seventh in the NHL for goals against per game. The Habs rank 18th in the league, suggesting the Leafs are better defensively.
The Canadiens have been a stable team defensively for some time. They boast physical and defensive players on their team, such as Shea Weber and Brendan Gallagher. Both should be returning from their respective injuries for Game 1.
Blocking shots is what head coach Claude Julien has taught throughout his coaching career, which is evident in his team’s play. Six players average more than one block per game. Takeaways aren’t their forte, with only two players averaging more than two per 60 minutes.
Their penalty kill ties with the Leafs, with both teams being vulnerable when in penalty trouble. The Leafs and Habs sound similar defensively because they are. I would give an edge to the Leafs, considering they force more turnovers and gave up fewer goals.
Edge: Toronto Maple Leafs
Goaltending
In the playoffs, goaltending is underrated. Someone that can’t handle the pace and pressure will send their team home early.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens both had injury issues surrounding their goaltenders during the regular season. Toronto played four goalies while Montreal played three. Frederik Andersen missed half of the regular season, with Jack Campbell missing many games for the Leafs in February and March. Montreal’s Carey Price missed games in April and May.
Price will likely be the starting goaltender for the Habs. He finished the regular season with a .901 save percentage and a 2.64 goals-against average. Both are very underwhelming for any goalie, never mind for someone who was once the best goaltender in the NHL.
Jake Allen will back him up with his .907 save percentage and 2.68 goals-against average. If both goaltenders fail, then Cayden Primeau will have to rescue the team. Owning a .849 save percentage and 4.16 goals-against average is not encouraging news.
Andersen played poorly with the Leafs, owning a .895 save percentage and 2.96 goals-against average. Both are career-worsts for the longtime Leaf. Campbell has been a pleasant surprise in relief of Andersen. The longtime backup earned a .921 save percentage and 2.15 goals-against average.
Campbell was confirmed to be the starter for Game 1. It comes to no one’s surprise since the two have had opposite seasons. Thursday night will be Campbell’s first playoff appearance in his career, while Price played in 70 playoff games. I don’t expect it to be much of an issue for Campbell to transition, but Price’s excellence is concerning.
Montreal’s goaltenders played poorly, and Campbell was the saving grace for Toronto. Then again, Price has not been the same goaltender in the regular season the past couple of years but is always clutch in the playoffs. That is what matters in this matchup.
The chance of something happening to Price is low but not impossible. Luckily Allen has 29 games of playoff experience, accumulating a .924 save percentage. Playoff experience and success is what give Montreal the edge.
Edge: Montreal Canadiens
Round 1 Verdict
The Montreal Canadiens playing the Toronto Maple Leafs in the playoffs is a blockbuster title. Arguably the biggest rivalry in NHL history is pitted against each other in a seven-game series.
Both teams have had their claim for the top team in the Scotia North Division. The only difference is Toronto’s lasted longer than a couple of weeks. Statistically speaking, the Leafs are the best team in the Scotia North Division. Their 77 points are 18 more than the Habs have.
Offensively, Toronto is far superior. Montreal does have offensive weapons, but the stars in the 6ix are equal to the entire Canadiens team. Toronto’s top-four points getters cover for the top seven points-getters in Montreal.
Both teams are average to above average defensively. Some players stand out, but overall, the teams aren’t the best at defending. Leading in forced turnovers and goals allowed, Toronto gets a slight edge.
The Leafs enter the playoffs with a healthy goaltender coming off the best season of his career. Montreal heads into the playoffs with a goaltender coming off an injury but is a brick wall when it counts. Playoff experience and success heavily favor the Canadiens, giving them the edge.
Overall, Toronto leads in most statistical categories. If Montreal is to pull off an upset, they must shore up all holes in their game and hope Price returns fully healthy.
Series Prediction:
116. 2. 152. Final. 4
Stats courtesy of NHL.com
Playing physical is the only possible way to win the series for the Habs. The Toronto Maple Leafs skill and speed are far too much for most teams, especially if your goaltender is battling injuries.
Next. What the Opening Night Lineup Will Look LIke for Leafs in Playoffs. dark
While I’m sure the Montreal Canadiens will put up a fight, they are no match for the Toronto Maple Leafs. A 4-2 series win for the Leafs looks about right to me.